Keegan Akin 2021

[Sports Guy]

Let’s remember something here.  Akin has a TOTAL of 77.1 IP at the ML level so far.  That is a nothing of a sample size.  People on this site seem to think that if you aren’t good immediately that you can never be good, should be cut, need more AAA time, etc…it’s an absurd thought process.

Now, I tend to think his long term role will be in the pen but there is also reason to think it won’t and we should let that play out.

To me, the biggest travesty of this season is how poorly many of these young arms have been handled, all the while continuing to give starts to guys like Lopez and Harvey.

Akin is actually throwing a lot of strikes as a MLer.  His 2 year average is over 65%, which is over 1% higher than the league average. He could be a little better at missing bats, as he is around or slightly below league average (he has been below league average this year)

His FIP this year is about 3 runs better than his ERA and it was about 1.4 runs better last year.  His K rate is below average this year but it’s still not horrible.  It was above average in his short stint last year.  
 

Add all of this up and it doesn’t mean a whole lot since it’s a SSS however, there are signs that he deserves more chances.  It’s not like he is walking everyone, not striking guys out, etc…there is enough there to work with as of right now.

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Add all of this up and it doesn’t mean a whole lot since it’s a SSS however, there are signs that he deserves more chances.  It’s not like he is walking everyone, not striking guys out, etc…there is enough there to work with as of right now.

To me it's looked like a case of the nibbles most of the year. Last night he looked determined to not nibble. So I think while he has been throwing strikes like you mentioned, maybe the quality or sequence of those strikes were poor. I dunno, his pitches were visibly more on point last night. Hope he keeps it up. 

[Il BuonO]

51 minutes ago, interloper said:

To me it's looked like a case of the nibbles most of the year. Last night he looked determined to not nibble. So I think while he has been throwing strikes like you mentioned, maybe the quality or sequence of those strikes were poor. I dunno, his pitches were visibly more on point last night. Hope he keeps it up. 

A great look into Akin and his sequencing and command would be when he faced Sanchez last night. Strike three was a 94 mph FB perfectly placed on the inside corner, Sanchez didn’t move, just walked away. 

His spin rates allow him to pitch in like that. And I’d gladly welcome a 92-94 range. Some of this is trusting his stuff. Of course, he needs more than a well located FB. But it’s a start. 

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

To me, the biggest travesty of this season is how poorly many of these young arms have been handled, all the while continuing to give starts to guys like Lopez and Harvey.

Lopez and Harvey have been better than Akin so I'm not sure why they should lose their spots in the rotation to him. Aside from his FB spin rate and BB% (which is right at league average) Akin is pretty well below average in everything else. He was decent prospect in a horrible farm system. His most likely role was always going to be in the bullpen and it's not clear that he can even hack it there. He will get plenty of opportunities to prove that he can. 

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

His K rate is below average this year but it’s still not horrible

It's pretty bad. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/keegan-akin-669211?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb#percent_rank

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Lopez and Harvey have been better than Akin so I'm not sure why they should lose their spots in the rotation to him. Aside from his FB spin rate and BB% (which is right at league average) Akin is pretty well below average in everything else. He was decent prospect in a horrible farm system. His most likely role was always going to be in the bullpen and it's not clear that he can even hack it there. He will get plenty of opportunities to prove that he can. 

It's pretty bad. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/keegan-akin-669211?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb#percent_rank

It’s 8.2.  I believe league average is around 9 this year.  It’s not a horrible K rate and it could easily jump up (or down) in his next outing, considering the sample size.

If you don’t see why Lopez and Harvey should lose starts to him (and many other young pitchers), I don’t really know what to tell you.  I guess you don’t care about seeing what younger players can do and are happy with guys we know aren’t part of the future rotation.  

[LTO's]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not a horrible K rate and it could easily jump up (or down) in his next outing, considering the sample size.

It literally is. He's in the 22nd percentile in all of baseball and it's even worse if you look at just his starts. 

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you don’t see why Lopez and Harvey should lose starts to him (and many other young pitchers), I don’t really know what to tell you.  I guess you don’t care about seeing what younger players can do and are happy with guys we know aren’t part of the future rotation.  

I do care. I just don't think Akin is going to part of a future rotation. If you followed him as a prospect at all you would know that he never had a great shot at being anything more than a back of the rotation/swingman type. I don't see the value in having Akin and Kremer go out and get shelled every fifth day when they are clearly not ready. Akin has great spin on his FB and decent secondary pitches. He has a solid shot at being a good reliever if he is able to command his pitches better. I like that they are giving him that shot right now. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, LTO's said:

It literally is. He's in the 22nd percentile in all of baseball and it's even worse if you look at just his starts. 

I do care. I just don't think Akin is going to part of a future rotation. If you followed him as a prospect at all you would know that he never had a great shot at being anything more than a back of the rotation/swingman type. I don't see the value in having Akin and Kremer go out and get shelled every fifth day when they are clearly not ready. Akin has great spin on his FB and decent secondary pitches. He has a solid shot at being a good reliever if he is able to command his pitches better. I like that they are giving him that shot right now. 

He may never be part of the rotation, I agree but he should be getting the chances now..along with other young starters.  We are starting 3 guys with no chance at the rotation long term.  We needed to use this year to get more answers that hasn’t happened. No matter what our thoughts are on these guys, they have earned their chance and a chance isn’t a spot start here or there and not keeping them in any kind of a rhythm.  That’s just stupidity at its finest.  
 

I wonder if how they handled Lowther this year led to his injury.  Wouldn’t surprise me considering the inconsistent way they have used him.

[Tony-OH]

Akin was able to keep his slider down and he threw it for strikes which allows his fastball to play up. He's a reliever and I hope they keep him in that role. Here were some highlights last night. 

https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/akin-yanks

 

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

He may never be part of the rotation, I agree but he should be getting the chances now..along with other young starters.  We are starting 3 guys with no chance at the rotation long term.  We needed to use this year to get more answers that hasn’t happened. No matter what our thoughts are on these guys, they have earned their chance and a chance isn’t a spot start here or there and not keeping them in any kind of a rhythm.  That’s just stupidity at its finest.  

He has gotten chances and he was horrible.  He's a reliever. Bottom line. They aren't going to keep sending him out there as a starter to get shelled. That's not what development is and I'm not sure why you think it is. He's young and they still think he and Kremer can be contributors which is why they are trying to give them chances to succeed in other areas before having them start again. Lopez and Harvey are there to eat as many innings as possible and don't have options. It makes no sense to DFA better pitchers for the sake of starting a guy just because he's young. Let them work on things in AAA or in the bullpen. 

[Sports Guy]

77 IP covering 2 separate seasons is  equal to "gotten chances".   SMH

[LTO's]

Using IP is bizarre considering he's only been able to go over 5 innings as a starter one time and he gave up 8 ER in that game....

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Using IP is bizarre considering he's only been able to go over 5 innings as a starter one time and he gave up 8 ER in that game....

Use whatever number you want to use…the chances have been minimal and inconsistent.

[Big Mac]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s remember something here.  Akin has a TOTAL of 77.1 IP at the ML level so far.  That is a nothing of a sample size.  People on this site seem to think that if you aren’t good immediately that you can never be good, should be cut, need more AAA time, etc…it’s an absurd thought process.

Now, I tend to think his long term role will be in the pen but there is also reason to think it won’t and we should let that play out.

To me, the biggest travesty of this season is how poorly many of these young arms have been handled, all the while continuing to give starts to guys like Lopez and Harvey.

Akin is actually throwing a lot of strikes as a MLer.  His 2 year average is over 65%, which is over 1% higher than the league average. He could be a little better at missing bats, as he is around or slightly below league average (he has been below league average this year)

His FIP this year is about 3 runs better than his ERA and it was about 1.4 runs better last year.  His K rate is below average this year but it’s still not horrible.  It was above average in his short stint last year.  
 

Add all of this up and it doesn’t mean a whole lot since it’s a SSS however, there are signs that he deserves more chances.  It’s not like he is walking everyone, not striking guys out, etc…there is enough there to work with as of right now.

Jose Berrios in his rookie year in 2016: 14 GS, 58.1 IP, 8.02 ERA, 6.20 FIP, 11.4 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.4 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9

If a lot of posters here had their way, he would've been written off as a reliever at best and not been given more chances.  These things take time.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Jose Berrios in his rookie year in 2016: 14 GS, 58.1 IP, 8.02 ERA, 6.20 FIP, 11.4 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.4 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9

If a lot of posters here had their way, he would've been written off as a reliever at best and not been given more chances.  These things take time.

Yp..there are countless examples of this.

But Akin appears to be a little out of shape and has had a reliever profile for a while, therefore people feel its fine to make these types of judgments based on very little ML info.

Again, I feel its very likely he ends up in the pen.  I am perfectly fine with the analysis that says, he appears to be destined for the pen long term.  I am not ok with acting like that is a 100% certainty and not giving him an ample shot in the rotation on a team as bad as this one.

[Big Mac]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yp..there are countless examples of this.

But Akin appears to be a little out of shape and has had a reliever profile for a while, therefore people feel its fine to make these types of judgments based on very little ML info.

Again, I feel its very likely he ends up in the pen.  I am perfectly fine with the analysis that says, he appears to be destined for the pen long term.  I am not ok with acting like that is a 100% certainty and not giving him an ample shot in the rotation on a team as bad as this one.

And if there were other starting pitching prospects beating down the door I'd be fine with leaving him in the pen too.  But starting guys that have no future here over him does not make sense.  It's not like the need to get Lowther, Kremer, Bradish, Baumann, Wells, etc. starts at the ML level is what is pushing him to the pen.