Reddit- Umpires have heavily favored Orioles opponents this season

[now]

Interesting that the stats confirm the eye test. During yesterday's no-hitter, while complaining about all the missed calls and inconsistency, I observed to my partner who was watching with me, that the umps seem to miss about 1 out of 10 ball-strike calls (i.e. ~90% correct rate). It's somewhat comforting that the bias doesn't (theoretically) skew game outcomes; but as Frobby hints, any such at-bat could surely impact the game disproportionally.

[Moose Milligan]

Slackers.  No one's said it?  None of you?

"YOU'RE HERE FOR ONE GODDAMN REASON....TO #&*$ US!!!!"

NSFW, obviously, language.

 

 

[foxfield]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

So was the bigger problem overly generous calls against our hitters, or overly stingy calls against our pitchers.   If the latter, that may be a reflection on our catchers’ poor framing skills.  But the former can’t be explained that way.  

 

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

Like I said, I’d like to know if our hitters are getting screwed as often as our pitchers.    That would answer the question pretty definitively IMO.  

Is that correct?  If the problem of overly generous calls against our pitchers is explainable as a reflection of our catchers poor framing skills, why would it not also be true that overly generous calls against our hitters are explainable by good framing skills.  

I really do not see how one can be a factor and the other not.  Either the noise in the numbers is a part of framing or it isn't.  At least that is how it would seem to me.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

Is that correct?  If the problem of overly generous calls against our pitchers is explainable as a reflection of our catchers poor framing skills, why would it not also be true that overly generous calls against our hitters are explainable by good framing skills.  

I really do not see how one can be a factor and the other not.  Either the noise in the numbers is a part of framing or it isn't.  At least that is how it would seem to me.

Because we only have two catchers, but the games we have played have probably included 10-15 different opposing catchers.   

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Because we only have two catchers, but the games we have played have probably included 10-15 different opposing catchers.   

Sure each team has two catchers so more games would minimize noise.  But if ours could be explained by poor framing, I still don't see how it wouldn't work the other way.  Especially if numbers say our catchers are among the worst at framing.  

 

[Riggodrill44]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it is more likely a product of poor framing than any bias the umps might have.

Umpires are human and they have biases.
Yankee hitters have better plate discipline so close pitches are balls. On the other hand Orioles hitters are free swingers, they have bigger strike zones.

My son thinks I’m crazy when I say this, this data proves my point. I know what I’m seeing from the umpires. The thing is, it isn’t anything new. Jeffery Maier anyone??

[Moose Milligan]

CoC, of course...being CoC...neglected to give the full headline in the thread title, although he commented on it later.  The title of the reddit post is:

Quote

[Analysis] Umpires have heavily favored Orioles opponents this season...and it hasn't mattered.

The author goes on to say:

Quote

HOWEVER, I also compared the Overall Favor rating for each individual game to the game's final outcome. And there wasn't a single Orioles game where the Overall Favor was higher than the final run differential.

Practically every sports fan I know forever thinks that their team is on the receiving end of bad calls from umpires/officials or are somehow getting screwed.  Two Yankees fans that I'm friendly with think they were absolutely positively screwed during the Astros trash-can banging scandal.  Somehow, they're unable to comfort themselves in their 27 World Championships.   

Add the little guy/chip on their shoulder/inferiority complex that many people from Baltimore seem to have with some analysis like this and it's easy to see why someone would get riled up.

But let's face it, the Orioles are usually just really good at beating themselves.  They don't need help from umpires.  

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

CoC, of course...being CoC...neglected to give the full headline in the thread title, although he commented on it later.  The title of the reddit post is:

The author goes on to say:

Practically every sports fan I know forever thinks that their team is on the receiving end of bad calls from umpires/officials or are somehow getting screwed.  Two Yankees fans that I'm friendly with think they were absolutely positively screwed during the Astros trash-can banging scandal.  Somehow, they're unable to comfort themselves in their 27 World Championships.   

Add the little guy/chip on their shoulder/inferiority complex that many people from Baltimore seem to have with some analysis like this and it's easy to see why someone would get riled up.

But let's face it, the Orioles are usually just really good at beating themselves.  They don't need help from umpires.  

 

See, this premise is wrong.  We might know that the difference between hitting in a 2-1 count vs. a 1-2 count is a .100 difference in BA and that translates to .17 runs.  (I’m making those numbers up.)  So the calculator will say that if that happens five times in a game, it’s .85 runs, but you lost that game by one run so it made no difference.    But in reality, there were some games where that extra hit led to one or more runs.   There is no hit that leads to .17 runs —that’s just an average.   So it’s a complete fallacy to say that in none of the games did the wrong call make enough of a difference to change the outcome. There is no way to know.   

[Moose Milligan]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

See, this premise is wrong.  We might know that the difference between hitting in a 2-1 count vs. a 1-2 count is a .100 difference in BA and that translates to .17 runs.  (I’m making those numbers up.)  So the calculator will say that if that happens five times in a game, it’s .85 runs, but you lost that game by one run so it made no difference.    But in reality, there were some games where that extra hit led to one or more runs.   There is no hit that leads to .17 runs —that’s just an average.   So it’s a complete fallacy to say that in none of the games did the wrong call make enough of a difference to change the outcome. There is no way to know.   

I see what you're saying.  But it's easier to be outraged and say that the Orioles are getting screwed.  Being the victim feels good sometimes.  

 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I see what you're saying.  But it's easier to be outraged and say that the Orioles are getting screwed.  Being the victim feels good sometimes.  

 

Well, in theory over 30 games  we’ve been screwed out of 10 runs compared to the average team.   But which 10 runs were they?   No way to know.   

[SteveA]

This is total BS.   Next thing you are going to tell me is that the college basketball refs favor the Virginia Tech basketball team when it is ABSOLUTELY CLEAR to me that they are out to screw us in nearly every game.   We get fouls called on us for barely brushing a guy's arm, and the other team takes 4 steps and doesn't get called for travelling, pushes off and doesn't get called.   It's obvious to anyone who watches the games.

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I see what you're saying.  But it's easier to be outraged and say that the Orioles are getting screwed.  Being the victim feels good sometimes. 

Sometimes?  Every year since '83 we've packed it up in October knowing full well that the umps, fate, the Gods, Angelos, money, the press, the GM, the Yanks... they've all screwed us.  Getting screwed is a fundamental part of the Oriole ethos.

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, SteveA said:

This is total BS.   Next thing you are going to tell me is that the college basketball refs favor the Virginia Tech basketball team when it is ABSOLUTELY CLEAR to me that they are out to screw us in nearly every game.   We get fouls called on us for barely brushing a guy's arm, and the other team takes 4 steps and doesn't get called for travelling, pushes off and doesn't get called.   It's obvious to anyone who watches the games.

After three or four years of being the 25th-best team in the country and not making the tournament I stopped watching.  It was clear and obvious the universe is out to get us.  Let me rephrase... has already gotten us.

[now]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, in theory over 30 games  we’ve been screwed out of 10 runs compared to the average team.   But which 10 runs were they?   No way to know.   

And 10 runs = 1 win, right, theoretically? So it has made a difference, of 1 win.

[Can_of_corn]

20 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

CoC, of course...being CoC...neglected to give the full headline in the thread title, although he commented on it later.  The title of the reddit post is:

The author goes on to say:

Practically every sports fan I know forever thinks that their team is on the receiving end of bad calls from umpires/officials or are somehow getting screwed.  Two Yankees fans that I'm friendly with think they were absolutely positively screwed during the Astros trash-can banging scandal.  Somehow, they're unable to comfort themselves in their 27 World Championships.   

Add the little guy/chip on their shoulder/inferiority complex that many people from Baltimore seem to have with some analysis like this and it's easy to see why someone would get riled up.

But let's face it, the Orioles are usually just really good at beating themselves.  They don't need help from umpires.  

 

Yep, guilty as charged, I didn't want a super long title.  However the full title is clearly visible in the link and as you say, I did comment on it.  

You totally caught me trying to be pithy.