Cedric Mullins as a CF

[Natty]

 

[Hallas]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You can use whatever data you choose.

But when discussing this and knowing that we are only using this season to determine things, I don’t see why it’s a big deal to split it in half when you have 2 extremes.  But hey, have at it the way you want it.

1: you're removing more than half the sample by using May splits.

2: Many stats (wOBA, OBP) have their correlation coefficients triple when you go from a 4 week (~100 PA) sample to a 10 week (260 PA) sample.  Even stats that stabilize relatively quickly (k rate, bb rate) see significant increases in correlation from a 4 week sample to a 10 week sample.  These stats do not increase in correlation linearly, and the line doesn't flatten out until after 100 PA.  So the smaller sample is significantly less enlightening, as you'd expect.

 

Source: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

 

edit to add: this season to date is almost 40% of his total major league stats, and this season coincides with him batting left handed exclusively.  So using this season only is quite relevant. 

[LocoChris]

Mullins is the best all around player we have right now. 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Hallas said:

1: you're removing more than half the sample by using May splits.

2: Many stats (wOBA, OBP) have their correlation coefficients triple when you go from a 4 week (~100 PA) sample to a 10 week (260 PA) sample.  Even stats that stabilize relatively quickly (k rate, bb rate) see significant increases in correlation from a 4 week sample to a 10 week sample.  These stats do not increase in correlation linearly, and the line doesn't flatten out until after 100 PA.  So the smaller sample is significantly less enlightening, as you'd expect.

 

Source: https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

 

edit to add: this season to date is almost 40% of his total major league stats, and this season coincides with him batting left handed exclusively.  So using this season only is quite relevant. 

1). So? Half of this season he wasn’t that good and certainly not a player you build around.

2) good to hear

[Frobby]

This whole argument seems to me like much ado about nothing.   The only decision the O’s need to make about Mullins during the season is whether to trade him before the deadline.    In making that decision, you have to place a high value on Mullins, considering the season he is having, his defensive value and the fact that he has four years of service time remaining.    At this point, it seems to me they don’t trade him unless some team makes a pretty huge offer.   If one comes along, then the O’s can decide what their long term assessment of Mullins is, based on all the data available at the time — his minor league career, his pre-2021 major league career, this year, and taking into account his performance batting as a LHB against LHP.   You don’t look only at the 61 games played this year, nor do you look at some selected subset of that.   You look at everything he’s ever done and you make a judgment.   And you don’t need to make some grand strategic decision about keeping Mullins forever, you are deciding is keeping Mullins right now a better option then getting the guys being offered in this particular trade at this particular time?    

As for me, I don’t like to spend every minute of the day thinking about a player’s trade value, or whether the player’s current level of play is sustainable.   Sometimes (most of the time in fact), I just like to sit back and enjoy it when someone is playing his a@@ off.    What Mullins is doing right now is nothing short of amazing, whether or not he can keep it up.   He’s second in the AL in rWAR, a legit MVP candidate based on his play to date.   It’s been a joy to watch, and I’m looking forward to seeing how the rest of his season unfolds.  
 

[Ruzious]

9 hours ago, Natty said:

 

Just enjoying that moment.  Sheesh, he must have slid 10 feet after landing on his belly and bounced right up like it was nothing.  What a great reaction by Villar.  

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

He’s second in the AL in rWAR, a legit MVP candidate based on his play to date.   It’s been a joy to watch, and I’m looking forward to seeing how the rest of his season unfolds.  

Huzzah - watch out, Shohei!

Trezza did a piece for Savant with play-specific details on the one last night, and believe the +7 OAA is up from 6 yesterday, surely mostly on the strength of that one.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cedric-mullins-makes-incredible-catch

[survivedc]

Mullins sits at 10th in vote getting among AL Outfielders despite being 1st in WAR in that same group (5th overall among AL Position players). 
I know it’s a popularity contest to a large degree, but it would be a bummer for Mullins to not be at least the first guy off the bench.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Mullins sits at 10th in vote getting among AL Outfielders despite being 1st in WAR in that same group (5th overall among AL Position players). 
I know it’s a popularity contest to a large degree, but it would be a bummer for Mullins to not be at least the first guy off the bench.

I would think based on Mullins level of play he at least makes it as a reserve, but it won't the first or last time if Mullins gets snubbed from the game. It will mostly be due in part to the Orioles awful record even if the team has a few all star caliber players. 

[NCRaven]

I rarely risk disagreeing with FRobby since that will often make me wrong.  But I don’t think you value pre-2021 Mullins equally with 2021 Mullins if you believe that his full time lefty hitter performance represents a repeatable level of ability.  Or at least a level that is likely to remain better than his switch hitter performance.  You don’t totally disregard it but the switch hitting player is clearly different from the left-handed one-so far.  Elias has to decide if something closer to 2021 is likely to be repeated in the future.

[Hallas]

10 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I rarely risk disagreeing with FRobby since that will often make me wrong.  But I don’t think you value pre-2021 Mullins equally with 2021 Mullins if you believe that his full time lefty hitter performance represents a repeatable level of ability.  Or at least a level that is likely to remain better than his switch hitter performance.  You don’t totally disregard it but the switch hitting player is clearly different from the left-handed one-so far.  Elias has to decide if something closer to 2021 is likely to be repeated in the future.

 

His xWOBA based on his statcast batted ball data is not all-star level but it's pretty good. (.337 right now, it was .342 a week or so ago.) and he's expected to outperform his xWOBA because of his speed.  The biggest issue here is that I'm not really sure how you weight his awful 2019 minor league performance.  If you discount that because it was 2 years ago and he was still switch-hitting, he looks a lot better.  But if you count it because 2 years ago is not that long ago, then it really mucks with his projections.  ZIPS has his median projection at .290ish wOBA which is basically a 4th outfielder.  If you take his more recent performance because of him stopping switch hitting, and/or because you weight recent performance higher, then maybe he's closer to a .325-.330 wOBA, which is a good but not great piece.  I would assume that you'd have to see him at a whole season at this level of performance to bump him up to like a .340 or so wOBA projection.

[jdwilde1]

After tonight’s lead-off homer Palmer commented that Mullins is hitting .385 against fastballs over 95mph.  That’s why he’ll continue to have success.  Meanwhile, Sisco just got DFA’d after being unable to hit Major League fastballs.  Hitting the fastball is the most important thing you need to do if you are going to have success.  Your just dead in the water if you can’t catch up with a decent heater.

[Moose Milligan]

Damn, what a game.  On his t-shirt night, too.  

Trying not to get my hopes up in regards to this being legit, but whatever.  Just enjoying it.  He's awesome right now.

[accinfo]

Wow just Wow!  It has been many tough nights for us Oriole fans but the Cedric Mullins story has been fun.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]