Rosenthal: No token bids for Tex or Burnett

[NewMarketSean]

And most of those fans will say "Hey, that's neat. When we go to our two games a year from free tickets from Aunt Samantha's company we'll get to see a Baltimore kid this time."

I agree with you. And don't forget going another time because Baltimore is back on the road unis. Which they won't see at OPACY.

[DrungoHazewood]

Reggie Jackson? Didn't he make like .25 cents per attendance gain during his tenure? I wonder what it came out to?

When Reggie came to Baltimore they went from just over 1,000,000 fans in 1975 to just over 1,000,000 fans in 1976. Both 2nd place teams.

When he went to NY attendance went from 2.01M to 2.10M.

When he moved on to California attendance went up 7,000 a game, but of course the year prior was the strike and attendance had tanked almost everywhere, and the Angels went from a sub-500 record to the Division title.

[NewMarketSean]

If the O's signed Tex, Burnett, and Sheets they would sell a minimum of 2.8M seats, and probably closer to 3.2M seats… not because Tex is a local product, but because people could honestly look at the roster and believe they have the chance to contend.

I strongly disagree. After 2005 and the good start last year, fans know that the O's can pack it in with the best of them. If the O's are winning in August and September, I think you'll see the Yard pretty full. But not before then.

[DrungoHazewood]

If the O's signed Tex, Burnett, and Sheets they would sell a minimum of 2.8M seats, and probably closer to 3.2M seats… not because Tex is a local product, but because people could honestly look at the roster and believe they have the chance to contend.

If the O's signed Tex, Burnett, and Sheets and they were in contention at the All Star break they'd sell 2.5M tickets or so, because people want to watch a winner. If they signed those three and Burnett or Sheets got hurt early and the team is 19-31 at the end of May they'd struggle to beat last year's attendance.

People don't root for names. They root for uniforms, and wins.

[Frobby]

Bingo. Anyone who thinks one player will boost attendance without turning the team into a semi-serious contender is very mistaken. I'd bet a 500k boost just to watch a player hasn't ever happened in the history of baseball.

You could argue the case that it happened when Griffey returned to Cincinnati:

1998: 77-85 record, 1.793 mm attendance

1999: 96-67 record, 2.061 mm attendance

2000: 85-77 record, 2.571 mm attendance (with Griffey)

2001: 66-96 record, 1.879 mm attendance (with Griffey)

However, data clearly shows that a team usually experiences a big attendance bump the year after its record makes a big improvement. This is because people think the team will be good and buy tickets in advance for that reason, so even if the team's performance declines an attendance increase is locked in. Therefore, I'd say the 510,000 fan increase the year Griffey arrived was due more to expectations about the team than it was about Griffey. Look where attendance was the following year when expectations had been dampened.

And Mark Teixeira is not Ken Griffey.

[NCRaven]

I strongly disagree. After 2005 and the good start last year, fans know that the O's can pack it in with the best of them. If the O's are winning in August and September, I think you'll see the Yard pretty full. But not before then.

But, if they do sign Teixeira, Burnett and Sheets, wouldn't that mean that they have a better chance to be winning in August and September, and thus put more fannies in seats?

[bmorebirds_24]

I have one stupid but very serious question.....

Are most fans on this board wanting Tex here for is prduction as a baseball player,or just for the simple fact he is a hometown guy?

[Frobby]

If the O's signed Tex, Burnett, and Sheets and they were in contention at the All Star break they'd sell 2.5M tickets or so, because people want to watch a winner. If they signed those three and Burnett or Sheets got hurt early and the team is 19-31 at the end of May they'd struggle to beat last year's attendance.

They'd still easily beat last year's attendance in the 2nd scenario you outlined, because so many tickets are sold before the season ever begins. In 2004 we fell way behind in the first half, were never really in the race and still had that 290,000 fan increase because people had expected the team to be a contender or near-contender.

[JTrea81]

You could argue the case that it happened when Griffey returned to Cincinnati:

1998: 77-85 record, 1.793 mm attendance

1999: 96-67 record, 2.061 mm attendance

2000: 85-77 record, 2.571 mm attendance (with Griffey)

2001: 66-96 record, 1.879 mm attendance (with Griffey)

However, data clearly shows that a team usually experiences a big attendance bump the year after its record makes a big improvement. This is because people think the team will be good and buy tickets in advance for that reason, so even if the team's performance declines an attendance increase is locked in. Therefore, I'd say the 510,000 fan increase the year Griffey arrived was due more to expectations about the team than it was about Griffey. Look where attendance was the following year when expectations had been dampened.

And Mark Teixeira is not Ken Griffey.

No but to Oriole fans he is. Signing Tex is a message to Oriole fans that they want to win and they are serious about competing. That's what gets the fans excited. It's not just Tex the player, but what signing him represents...

[Enjoy Terror]

1000 random people aren't Orioles fans. I would be willling to bet money you could not find an Orioles fan who does not know who Mark Teixeira is. Tex is well known as "the one that got away."

How else can you explain this:

Now he won't bring a huge surge of fans, but his signing could certainly rally the fanbase much like or even more than Tejada did in 2004.

Part in bold is true. But you didn't read my post.

Orioles need to draw NON ORIOLE FANS. The "I'll go to one or two games a year with my son and daughter" people. The "I'll watch the game at the bar, but I don't really know who the right fielder is" person. That's the point of my post, which you seemed to have glossed over.

Two people have quoted my post saying almost all Orioles fans know who Mark Teixeira is. I already said that the Orioles don't need to target "fans". They need to find a way to bring non-fans into the stadium, and that is done by winning, not by bringing in Mark Teixeira, unless he is somehow directly related to a winning record. Regular people living in Baltimore who don't watch the Orioles do not know who Mark Teixeira is.

[DrungoHazewood]

The signing of those 3, which would give the O's the legit ability to contend… would make a huge difference in season-ticket sales…

In 2010, if they contend in 2009.

[baseball4evr17]

I have one stupid but very serious question.....

Are most fans on this board wanting Tex here for his prduction as a baseball player,or just for the simple fact he is a hometown guy?

Another question similar to this: How many casual fans know that Teixeira is from the Baltimore area?

[Fan4Life]

When Reggie came to Baltimore they went from just over 1,000,000 fans in 1975 to just over 1,000,000 fans in 1976. Both 2nd place teams.

When he went to NY attendance went from 2.01M to 2.10M.

When he moved on to California attendance went up 7,000 a game, but of course the year prior was the strike and attendance had tanked almost everywhere, and the Angels went from a sub-500 record to the Division title.

It was NY I was referring to. Was that increase you posted for the following year after he signed?

[bmorebirds_24]

IMO,attendance would sky rocket if this team would show it could compete in the final months of the season.Signing Tex,Burnett,and Sheets would probally make this team alot better.(barring injuries)what i think is killing this team is SOME of the players we still have under contract.with that said,i think that has a major effect on ticket sales.Not to mention the owner.from the radio,to friends,or even hearing people talk around town PA is a major problem with why people dont want to spend money and go to the games.

Alot of people have ideas of ways to fill the seats.Myself,winning would help out for me.i go to a few games a year to watch the team not "players" but if the team brought in some players,to make this team a contender.I would enjoy going alot more often and spending alot more of MY money to go.

[Enjoy Terror]

Another question similar to this: How many casual fans know that Teixeira is from the Baltimore area?

And my initial question: how many people who don't follow baseball at all because the Orioles haven't been worth anyone's time in 11 years know who Teixeira is and understand the kind of impact he would actually have?

If you don't follow baseball, you can read about him in the paper, but unless you actually follow the game you won't process that information as relevent until the Orioles start winning baseball games consistently.

Take for example a sport that I don't particularly like: Basketball. A lot of people don't follow it. There was a big trade the other day involving Allen Iverson. How many of you not currently following basketball understand the impact of that trade on the Pistons? I certainly don't know. It's not a team or a sport I follow. I even know who Allen Iverson is, but it doesn't particularly register to me as being important.

Apply that logic to the Orioles. Signing Mark Teixeira would be huge for the Orioles, but I'm thinking that the people in Baltimore who don't follow baseball won't understand the significance of the signing, won't care he's from Baltimore, and won't be truly impressed enough to go to a single game unless they start putting W's on the board. There are lots of people in the city of Baltimore who don't hold the Pistons in any higher regard than the Orioles.

The Ravens weren't even popular until they won a Superbowl. It's 100% about winning, and there is no statistical evidence that big name players increase attendence.