Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[waroriole]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mundy has a 921 OPS in 127 at bats and 10 homers at A+ ball.  That is hitting like crazy.

I guess Baseball Reference didn’t update. I’m not even gonna argue SSS with you. Anything I say will have no effect. Enjoy your sunshine. 

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you are living in a fantasy land.  Not that I don’t have some hopes for Mundy.   I fully appreciate that he has some chance to become a major league player, and that we shouldn’t be prejudiced by the fact that he went undrafted in a five-round draft.   

That said, the streets are littered with guys who hit .900 OPS for 32 games in Hi A but stalled out at higher levels.   And reports from Tony are that Mundy is a 20 runner, and he’s undersized for a 1B.   He’s going to need to bring a lot of bat to have value.   

I’d say the odds are almost zero that Mundy ends this season in AAA.   His odds of getting to AA this season are decent, but it may not happen that quickly.   I would not say that Mundy is “not being challenged” in Hi A.   His BA has dropped by 50 points compared to low A, and his OBP has dropped by more than 100 points.   His K rate has gone from 15% in low A to 28% in Hi A.   He’s still hitting for a lot of power, which is what has his OPS over .900.   I think the O’s will continue to let him work at Hi A a bit longer.   If he does get promoted again, we’ll see what that adjustment is like for him.   We certainly don’t want to see another 50 point drop in BA and 100 point drop in OBP.

 

Why are you comparing to low A ball?   A guy who hit 10 homers in 127 at bats and has a 921 OPS is not being challenge.   Talk to me about that when his OPS is under 800.   I still don't think the O's have found the level that challenges him.  We will see what happens on Monday.  You could be right.  

As far as being a slow runner.  I agree he is not a 5 tool guy.  He is a power hitter.  Its not that unusual for power hitter to be slow.  Did stop David Ortiz from being productive as a DH.   I am not saying he will hits like Ortiz but being slow if he hits well is not a big problem.

I am not saying that we know that Mundy is a major leaguer yet.  But spending 2/25m or 3/40m on Trey  when there is someone moving fast up the minors that plays the same position is a reason to wait until the off season to make a decision.

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I guess Baseball Reference didn’t update. I’m not even gonna argue SSS with you. Anything I say will have no effect. Enjoy your sunshine. 

Mundy had 71 at bats at low A ball before Elias promoted him to Aberdeen.  Talk to Elias about SSS.

[wildcard]

I don't think posters are paying attention to what is going on with promotions this year.   IMO everything revolves around when Adley and Grayson making the major leagues with a target date of 2022.  

In Elias first two season promotions were slow.  But this year promotions have been much faster.  Elias wants to get his  talented young players playing together in the majors as soon as they show they are ready.    

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

The Mundy factor will become clear as the season go on.   He appears ready for a promotion to AA.   He is moving up the O's minors leagues fast.   He plays the same positions as Trey.  When thinking of  a multi year contract for Trey, Mundy could be a factor

Mundy is an undrafted college free agent hitting well in a SSS against younger players in the low minors, it would be fantastic if he turned out to be something but I sincerely doubt that any moves will be made/not be made with him in mind until he's mashing in Norfolk for an extended period, which may never even happen.

He's much more likely to turn out to be Walter Young than Max Muncy.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Mundy is an undrafted college free agent hitting well in a SSS against younger players in the low minors, it would be fantastic if he turned out to be something but I sincerely doubt that any moves will be made/not be made with him in mind until he's mashing in Norfolk for an extended period, which may never even happen.

He's much more likely to turn out to be Walter Young than Max Muncy.

If Mundy turns into the next Trey Mancini then great, but it's way too soon to be penciling Mundy onto the 2024 Orioles as a key contributor. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

17 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If Mundy turns into the next Trey Mancini then great, but it's way too soon to be penciling Mundy onto the 2024 Orioles as a key contributor. 

It's downright silly, really. He's not a HS kid tearing up A ball, he's a 23 year old college guy, and as Frobby pointed out, his numbers since his promotion are full of fairly ominous signs (i.e. his K rate almost doubling).

The guy is basically a non-prospect until he proves a lot more, imo.

[Sydnor]

51 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If Mundy turns into the next Trey Mancini then great, but it's way too soon to be penciling Mundy onto the 2024 Orioles as a key contributor. 

Agreed. To be honest, Mayo is more likely to be a contributor on the 2024 Orioles as a 1B/COF (not that Mundy can play COF) than Mundy and that’s also highly unlikely.

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think posters are paying attention to what is going on with promotions this year.   IMO everything revolves around when Adley and Grayson making the major leagues with a target date of 2022.  

In Elias first two season promotions were slow.  But this year promotions have been much faster.  Elias wants to get his  talented young players playing together in the majors as soon as they show they are ready.    

I think the main reason promotions have been much faster is there was uncertainty about initial placements due to the pandemic disruptions last year.  For the most part, the O’s were very conservative with their initial placements and it quickly became obvious that some people had been started too low.  So, they moved those players up.   

We will see how quick they are with further promotions.   Last Sunday was the midpoint of the MiL season, which runs to Sept. 19 this year (except for AAA, which runs to Oct. 3).    So any time between now and early August would be a pretty typical time for promotions.   
 

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

It's downright silly, really. He's not a HS kid tearing up A ball, he's a 23 year old college guy, and as Frobby pointed out, his numbers since his promotion are full of fairly ominous signs (i.e. his K rate almost doubling).

The guy is basically a non-prospect until he proves a lot more, imo.

Well, I’m not going quite as far as you.  I consider him a prospect.   I just don’t think there’s any chance he’s getting promoted three times in one season, as wildcard suggests is possible.   And nothing he does will impact whether the O’s trade Mancini.    That will be dictated by what’s being offered in return.   

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I’m not going quite as far as you.  I consider him a prospect.   I just don’t think there’s any chance he’s getting promoted three times in one season, as wildcard suggests is possible.   And nothing he does will impact whether the O’s trade Mancini.    That will be dictated by what’s being offered in return.   

Whether Mancini is traded will only partially be dicatated by what is offered in return.  What kind of a contract he will sign will also be part of the decision IMO.  And who the O's have to replace him cheaply.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Whether Mancini is traded will only partially be dicatated by what is offered in return.  What kind of a contract he will sign will also be part of the decision IMO.  And who the O's have to replace him cheaply.

Do you have any information suggesting the O’s have had any extension talks with him this year?

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do you have any information suggesting the O’s have had any extension talks with him this year?

No.    Do you think it makes sense that Elias would be talking to Mancini's agent about what kind of contract it would take to sign him?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

No.    Do you think it makes sense that Elias would be talking to Mancini's agent about what kind of contract it would take to sign him?

It’s possible, but it depends whether the O’s have any interest in extending him.  They may prefer to just go with younger guys.   Personally, I’d kick the tires on an extension, but I’m not Elias and don’t know what he thinks.  

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s possible, but it depends whether the O’s have any interest in extending him.  They may prefer to just go with younger guys.   Personally, I’d kick the tires on an extension, but I’m not Elias and don’t know what he thinks.  

Elias doesn't strike me as the type to want to extend someone like Mancini.  If word came out that was the case I'd wonder if ownership was instigating it.