2021 4th round pick (106): Donta Williams - OF - (Senior) Arizona

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, emmett16 said:

Tony,

 How much do you think Covid played into the draft strategy?  Seems like this year picking HS players would be risky.  They only played a handful of games (shorter track record & less reps), probably didn't have systems in place (like universities) to keep kids working & playing.  I imagine development at the lower levels, HS and on down, were effected much more than Pro & College programs.   After reviewing draft I've been wondering if he decided to take a super safe route this year and go heavy College & avoid air balls on HS kids due to a wasted 2020.   

Do you think the O's can build and maintain a winning team in the AL East taking a "super safe route" to talent acquisition?

I don't think that's a viable strategy. 

[emmett16]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Do you think the O's can build and maintain a winning team in the AL East taking a "super safe route" to talent acquisition?

I don't think that's a viable strategy. 

Long term, or course not.  Year after a Pandemic?  Maybe.   I think they need to hit on as many picks as they can.  I'm just wondering if this year, due to pandemic, the risk of the HS was just too high.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, emmett16 said:

Long term, or course not.  Year after a Pandemic?  Maybe.   I think they need to hit on as many picks as they can.  I'm just wondering if this year, due to pandemic, the risk of the HS was just too high.  

But he did basically the same thing last year.  It's becoming a trend.  It appears to be his comfort zone.

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Tony,

 How much do you think Covid played into the draft strategy?  Seems like this year picking HS players would be risky.  They only played a handful of games (shorter track record & less reps), probably didn't have systems in place (like universities) to keep kids working & playing.  I imagine development at the lower levels, HS and on down, were effected much more than Pro & College programs.   After reviewing draft I've been wondering if he decided to take a super safe route this year and go heavy College & avoid air balls on HS kids due to a wasted 2020.   

It may have certainly had something to do with their almost total college drafting philosophy this year, but I also think Elias is feeling some of the heat with the major league team stinking up the joint and probably wants to have more chances of guys helping out in the next 2-3 years vs the next 4-6 years.

Due to the analytics available with college players, I think Elias will always draft college heavy, but this year was much higher than 2019 when he drafted Gunnar Henderson and Darrell Hernaiz in the top 5 rounds of his first draft and then went overslot with Mayo and Baumler in 2020 in the 4th and 5th rounds.

 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he did basically the same thing last year.  It's becoming a trend.  It appears to be his comfort zone.

Did he? He went for two high risk high reward overslot high school kids last year in the 4th and 5th rounds. Not sure that's playing it safe. In 2019 he went with Gunnar and Hernaiz in the 2nd and 5th rounds. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Did he? He went for two high risk high reward overslot high school kids last year in the 4th and 5th rounds. Not sure that's playing it safe. In 2019 he went with Gunnar and Hernaiz in the 2nd and 5th rounds. 

What type of risk is there in taking a HS kid in the fourth or fifth rounds?  What's the hit rate in the fifth?  If these kids wash out in Low A it's not even a ripple. 

I'll give you that going overslot on Gunnar was a bit of a risk but he was picked about where he was rated.  He more or less got the saving from AR right?

[Tony-OH]

45 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What type of risk is there in taking a HS kid in the fourth or fifth rounds?  What's the hit rate in the fifth?  If these kids wash out in Low A it's not even a ripple. 

I'll give you that going overslot on Gunnar was a bit of a risk but he was picked about where he was rated.  He more or less got the saving from AR right?

You do realize they were both million dollar + overslot kids right? 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

You do realize they were both million dollar + overslot kids right? 

Yes.

Also, to date, the pool in the MLB draft has essentially served as both a cap and a floor.  No team, to my knowledge, has simply chosen to leave that type of money unspent.  The money saved in the first round had to go somewhere.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

51 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes.

Also, to date, the pool in the MLB draft has essentially served as both a cap and a floor.  No team, to my knowledge, has simply chosen to leave that type of money unspent.  The money saved in the first round had to go somewhere.

 

 

Not even sure what we're discussing at this point since you seem to be all over the place. 

You said "What type of risk is there in taking a HS kid in the fourth or fifth rounds?  What's the hit rate in the fifth?  If these kids wash out in Low A it's not even a ripple. " 

I showed you that they were no typical 4th and 5th round selections by their signing bonuses. A high school player given over a Million dollars bonus is certainly a high risk high reward player so you can't say this year continued a trend because he picked high risk high reward players in his first two drafts. 

As for the bonus money, I agree 100 percent that he should use up his allotted bonus and take BPA in each round in a regular 20 round draft unless there is a specific case where the talent level is not much different between his pick (5th this year) and the guy he wanted who could be had for less and there was a high risk high reward guy you think you can get later with the savings.

So far we have not seen whether that's the case or not. I won't make any proclamations until we see what every signs for. Elias is a smart guy and unless a player changes his number suddenly, i think he's got a pretty good idea on who will take what to sign.

[Can_of_corn]

30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not even sure what we're discussing at this point since you seem to be all over the place. 

You said "What type of risk is there in taking a HS kid in the fourth or fifth rounds?  What's the hit rate in the fifth?  If these kids wash out in Low A it's not even a ripple. " 

I showed you that they were no typical 4th and 5th round selections by their signing bonuses. A high school player given over a Million dollars bonus is certainly a high risk high reward player so you can't say this year continued a trend because he picked high risk high reward players in his first two drafts. 

As for the bonus money, I agree 100 percent that he should use up his allotted bonus and take BPA in each round in a regular 20 round draft unless there is a specific case where the talent level is not much different between his pick (5th this year) and the guy he wanted who could be had for less and there was a high risk high reward guy you think you can get later with the savings.

So far we have not seen whether that's the case or not. I won't make any proclamations until we see what every signs for. Elias is a smart guy and unless a player changes his number suddenly, i think he's got a pretty good idea on who will take what to sign.

I'll try and illustrate my point using everyone favorite draft.

Hobgood was a high first round underslot pick that failed to pan out.  There was much fallout.  In that same draft the O's gave Cameron Coffey one million after selecting him in the 22 round.  He failed, topped out with two innings in the Sall league.  Other than a few diehards here does anyone remember or care about Coffey? 

If Baumler follows the same career arc as Coffey (TJ and all) what damage is done?  What is the risk?  Money that was going to be spent anyway is gone and fifth round picks don't generally pan out anyway so no one notices when another fails. 

You can pick the surest of sure things that ever sured in the fifth round and it will probably amount to nothing at the ML level.  There are no consequences attached to a fifth round pick failing.

So while a pick like Baumler can be high reward, it isn't much of an actual risk.  Certainly not to the extent that Elias should be getting credit for risk taking.

 

The real risk taking is the risk that guys he passed on to go underslot end up having big careers. 

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll try and illustrate my point using everyone favorite draft.

Hobgood was a high first round underslot pick that failed to pan out.  There was much fallout.  In that same draft the O's gave Cameron Coffey one million after selecting him in the 22 round.  He failed, topped out with two innings in the Sall league.  Other than a few diehards here does anyone remember or care about Coffey? 

If Baumler follows the same career arc as Coffey (TJ and all) what damage is done?  What is the risk?  Money that was going to be spent anyway is gone and fifth round picks don't generally pan out anyway so no one notices when another fails. 

You can pick the surest of sure things that ever sured in the fifth round and it will probably amount to nothing at the ML level.  There are no consequences attached to a fifth round pick failing.

So while a pick like Baumler can be high reward, it isn't much of an actual risk.  Certainly not to the extent that Elias should be getting credit for risk taking.

 

The real risk taking is the risk that guys he passed on to go underslot end up having big careers. 

The money spent provides the risk. If you throw a million dollars at busts year after year, you are going to end up out of a job.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The money spent provides the risk. If you throw a million dollars at busts year after year, you are going to end up out of a job.

Even if your picks in the first three rounds pan out?

If Kjerstad becomes an All-star and Baumler/Mayo crash and burn does it hurt Elias' reputation?

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even if your picks in the first three rounds pan out?

If Kjerstad becomes an All-star and Baumler/Mayo crash and burn does it hurt Elias' reputation?

Good Lord, I don't know if you are just trying to be argumentative for argumentative sake or you really have lost a sense of reality about the economics of this game. Have a great day. I'm done here.

[ChosenOne21]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even if your picks in the first three rounds pan out?

If Kjerstad becomes an All-star and Baumler/Mayo crash and burn does it hurt Elias' reputation?

Somewhat, at least in my opinion. He gets credit for a great Kjerstad pick and I'll knock him some for his failed overslots.

If the Baumler/Mayos of the world fail, it counts against you if you could have taken that money and drafted a better talent in the first round. Or maybe if there were better overslots available and you passed on them

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Somewhat, at least in my opinion. He gets credit for a great Kjerstad pick and I'll knock him some for his failed overslots.

If the Baumler/Mayos of the world fail, it counts against you if you could have taken that money and drafted a better talent in the first round. Or maybe if there were better overslots available and you passed on them

But to a very large degree it's what happens in the first few picks that makes the difference.

Now if Elias was just a draft guy it would matter more, but he isn't.  As a VP/GM he isn't going to live and die based on overslot fifth round picks.

Missing at 1-2 is what gets you fired not missing at 5-2.