Who will be Elias’ Wei-Yin Chen?

[Sports Guy]

The Orioles signed Chen to what amounted to a 4 year 16M deal before the 2012 season.

Chen ended up being one of, if not the best, FA acquisition the team has ever made when you consider price and value.

According to FG, Chen was worth just under 70 million in his 4 years as an Oriole.  Whether you believe in those numbers or not, it’s not debatable that he was an excellent signing that provided the team with surplus value.  

The Orioles ended the 2011 season as a 69 win team with an average-ish farm system and some good pieces to build around. Newly hired Dan  brought in some low priced talent and Chen was arguably the best of that group.  The Orioles spent 86ishM in 2011 and in that same ballpark in 2012.

Chen’s surplus value was a huge reason the team had a lot of success in those years.  (He wasn’t the only one)

Elias needs to find guys like this…the guys like ODay and Miguel Gonzalez.

They aren’t easy to find and it’s harder today than it was 7-10 years ago.  Scouting is changing, technology is changing, etc…finding diamonds in the rough are harder because everyone is using these advances.  That being said, you still have to find them, especially on a team like the Os, who don’t have an infinite payroll.  
 

Tony has been harping on this and it has been brought up a lot before.  So far, Duquette has shown to be far superior at doing this compared to Elias.  
 

 

[Oriole1940]

This is what I was talking about when I posted yesterday about players never surprising and being above expectations.  It has been so long since we had people like that, I had forgotten about some of those guys.  Maybe one or two guys recently, but nothing like those guys.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Or identify a veteran like Charlie Morton who became a very good starter for the Astros after being a middling pitcher during the first half of his career. 

[Hazmat]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Or identify a veteran like Charlie Morton who became a very good starter for the Astros after being a middling pitcher during the first half of his career. 

I presume he "became a very good starter" due to a sticky substance.  It might be harder to find pitchers in this category going forward.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Hazmat said:

I presume he "became a very good starter" due to a sticky substance.  It might be harder to find pitchers in this category going forward.

Well yeah that might have to be revaluated now, but if the Orioles are going to be winners again Elias needs to find his own version of Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel González, etc. 

FWIW,  Morton's ERA since the all star break is 3.10 ERA, so he's to struggling since the MLB crackdown on foreign substances. 

[Ruzious]

31 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

FWIW,  Morton's ERA since the all star break is 3.10 ERA, so he's to struggling since the MLB crackdown on foreign substances. 

Wait what?  Shouldn't there be a smily thing after that - as in Drew Smyly?  The Braves wouldn't be in playoff contention this year if they hadn't signed Morton.  Even Smyly has been somewhat useful.  

And your previous post was spot-on - finding Morton was enormous for Houston in 2017.  I'd love for the O's to find the next Charlie Morton.   

[Sports Guy]

We can expand this thread out too. Add a guy like Hammel or McLouth to this list.  Duq really did a good job of finding these guys.

[Frobby]

Chen is a good example of getting excess value from an international free agent, but I wouldn’t give Duquette all the credit there.   The first time I heard the O’s were interested in Chen was during that interim period after MacPhail had left and before Duquette was hired.  Dan was GM when the signing got made, so certainly he deserves some of the credit, but he doesn’t get all of it.   

O’Day also was picked up before Duquette became the GM.  I’ll give Duquette credit for his first multi-year contract.  

Gonzalez is all Duq’s.    A very underrated piece of the puzzle for us.   

We absolutely need a few pickups like these to accelerate our return to relevance.   

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Chen is a good example of getting excess value from an international free agent, but I wouldn’t give Duquette all the credit there.   The first time I heard the O’s were interested in Chen was during that interim period after MacPhail had left and before Duquette was hired.  Dan was GM when the signing got made, so certainly he deserves some of the credit, but he doesn’t get all of it.   

O’Day also was picked up before Duquette became the GM.  I’ll give Duquette credit for his first multi-year contract.  

Gonzalez is all Duq’s.    A very underrated piece of the puzzle for us.   

We absolutely need a few pickups like these to accelerate our return to relevance.   

Yes that is true but Duq did get the deal done with Chen but yes, he doesn’t deserve all the credit.

The overall point still remains though.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Or identify a veteran like Charlie Morton who became a very good starter for the Astros after being a middling pitcher during the first half of his career. 

I was screaming for Dan to sign Charlie Morton, but according to the rumor mill, he never was tied to him in any way. Rich Hill was another one we could have had, but I wasn’t aware of him until he Whopped the Orioles in his first start against them.

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

I was screaming for Dan to sign Charlie Morton, but according to the rumor mill, he never was tied to him in any way. Rich Hill was another one we could have had, but I wasn’t aware of him until he Whopped the Orioles in his first start against them.

Really?   When  Morton first hit free agency after 2015 and had a career ERA+  of 86 with the Pirates, you were "screaming for Dan to sign him"?   Or was it the next year when he had a slightly better year with Philly and was a free agent again?

If true, I'm really impressed, because I have to admit he wasn't on my radar as anyone I would have wanted.    The guy was 32 when he first hit free agency and had had only one year with an ERA+ over 100.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Really?   When  Morton first hit free agency after 2015 and had a career ERA+  of 86 with the Pirates, you were "screaming for Dan to sign him"?   Or was it the next year when he had a slightly better year with Philly and was a free agent again?

If true, I'm really impressed, because I have to admit he wasn't on my radar as anyone I would have wanted.    The guy was 32 when he first hit free agency and had had only one year with an ERA+ over 100.   

Someone that Philip doesn't have on ignore want to tell him that the O's had Rich Hill already and it didn't go well?

[wildcard]

Elias may have already added some guys like this.  Under the radar guys that get better with the O's:

Jorge Lopez -  High draft choice that underachieved before joining the O's.     He has good stuff but a real mental block as a starter.   Its too early to know how good he can be but he has been improving and now he is getting into the 6th inning allowing 3 runs or less against teams like the Yankees and Rays.  If that continues on a semi regular basis he is a starter who the O's have under control for 3 more years.

Jorge Mateo -  Highly rated prospect.  Waiver wire pickup.  This guy has talent. Its not hard to see.  2B is his best position and the O's need one of those.   If he can hit, and that is a big if, he is very valuable. Under O's control for 4 more years.

Matt Harvey -  Basically needed to learn how to pitch after having great success  as a thrower.   Its been a hard road in the 1st half but he appears to be making progress toward being a good starter.  A free agent after the season but he knows Holt helped him get to where he is.  He may want to stay with the O's.   I don't think any team is going to give him more than one guaranteed year.   The O's just might be his team. 

Cole Sulser -  A waiver wire pickup from Tampa.   Now has a 2.98 ERA,  55Ks in 42.1 IP,  1.181 WHIP.   He is moving into the closer role that he failed at last year when he was hurt.  He has saved 5 out of 6 save opportunities. Under O's control for 4 more years.

Tyler Wells -  Rule 5 guy. 55Ks in 43.2 IP and a 0.939 WHIP.    This guy could be a starter or a closer or anything in between.  Lot of talent here.  I'd stretch him over next spring and let him compete for at starter role.  If the O's have too many of those with Baumann and Grayson coming, then Wells could move to closer. Under O's control for 5 more years.

[LA2]

41 minutes ago, Philip said:

I was screaming for Dan to sign Charlie Morton, but according to the rumor mill, he never was tied to him in any way. Rich Hill was another one we could have had, but I wasn’t aware of him until he Whopped the Orioles in his first start against them.

Rich Hill's 2009 stats with the Orioles:

14 games, 13 starts, 57.67 IP, 68 hits, 40 unintentional walks, 50 earned runs.

ERA: 7.80. FIP: 5.21. WHIP: 1.873.

But he did manage somehow not to have a losing W/L record: 3-3.

[Sports Guy]

Saying Lopez "has been improving" is a huge stretch.