Plan for .500 on $20M (Constructive Posts Only, Please)

[Aristotelian]

With plenty of threads available for venting about the current team, Elias, ownership, etc, I thought I would start a thread specifically for constructive thinking about getting back to contention. Yes, we will be lucky to win 60 games and can be justly accused of tanking. Yes, we have a history of organizational dysfunction and mismanagement. Yes, we appear to be doing everything possible to save a buck during the rebuild phase. Still, we have gone from bottom of the basement to one of the top farm systems in baseball, including the #1 overall prospect and the #1 pitching prospect (who some here think is even better than Rutschman). We have a pretty young team with few players expected to regress due to age. We also have no long term contracts and tons of payroll flexibility in the years ahead. 

The first milestone to hit before we can be considered a contender again would be to get back to .500. What would it take to hit that milestone next year? Current team is sitting at 8 WAR. Let’s assume on track for 10 WAR/60 wins. We should need about 32 total WAR to get close to .500 (2018 Phillies had 31 WAR, 80 wins; Pirates had 32 WAR, 82 wins).  

Goal:  Get to .500 in 2022 while spending no more than $20M additional payroll next year. That amount is enough to significantly improve the club while giving us flexibility to go further should we succeed, or retool as needed. What is your plan to get to 32 WAR? Here is mine.

We should be calling up Grayson and Rutschman, along with a core of Mullins, Mountcastle, and Means. 

Next, we fill out the back end of the rotation and bullpen with actual prospects instead of current filler guys (Plutko, Valdez etc). Baumann and Zimmerman for the rotation, Bradish, Felix Bautista, Vespi, etc in the bullpen. Bradish can be kept stretched out to provide another option in case Baumann or Zimmerman falter. Also hopefully we get a few more innings out of Hunter Harvey. I’m not expecting much from any of these guys, just incremental improvement over what we have. Maybe 1 WAR from Bauman.

We still have some big holes to fill in the infield and both bullpen and rotation. My major offseason target is a good veteran SP (not ace) for about $14M AAV multiyear deal. Ideally I would like to get Robbie Ray for that but appears he is getting priced out of that level. Also look at Descalfini, Stroman, Rodon, Jon Gray. 

I am not spending on SS because Westburg looks on track for ‘23, possibly even late ‘22. I also think Urias can hold down 2B until Vavra or someone better emerges. He is sitting at 1 WAR in only 200 AB's. It is looking like the earliest Gunnar will be ready is ‘24 so we still need a stopgap for 3B. Still, I would like an upgrade over Franco. I am thinking Josh Harrison or Eduardo Escobar on a one year deal similar to the Iglesias contract, about $3M.

Finally, we still need to shore up the bullpen. I am looking for a veteran late inning bullpen guy with some closing experience. Could we get Brad Boxberger and Steve Cishek for around $3M? 

If we could fill those holes on budget, this would get us the following roster and what I would call not-unrealistic WAR projections, totaling 32 WAR. 

Rotation: Means (3), Ray/Descalifini (2.5), Rodriguez (3.5), Baumann (1), Zimmerman (0.5)

Bullpen: Boxberger/Cishek (1.5), Harvey (1), Scott (0.5), Sulser (1), Bautista (0.5), Fry (0.5), Bradish/Vespi

Infield: Mountcastle 1B (1), Urias 2B (1.5), Martin/Mateo SS, Harrison/Escobar 3B (2)

Outfield: Mullins CF (4), Hays LF (1.5), Santander RF (1) 

DH: Mancini (1.5)

Rutschman (4), Wynns

Look to trade Mancini and Santander at the deadline. We will lose some WAR there but hopefully get some return. Replace them with some combination of Stowers, Diaz, and Mundy. 

Depending on how close we get to .500 in '22, we could open up the checkbook for Nola/Clevinger or Jose Ramirez/Muncy depending on where we have the biggest holes to upgrade.  Alternatively, if this plan doesn't work out, the $20M isn't enough to commit us to anything. We can trade Means and flip Ray for more prospects if we need to retool.

Either way, we still have a pipeline to further improve the club with Westburg and potentially Hall and Henderson in '23, and Kjerstad and Cowser in '24 (look to trade Austin Hays at that point), along with Mayo if Henderson busts. 

Feel free to critique my plan or suggest your own. It's a challenging thought exercise but I think it can be done.

[wildcard]

Couple of comments:

1) 5 starters is not near enough.  So far the O's have used 10 starters this year.   The O's need at least 8 going into next year considering the Means, Zimmermann and Baumann have all been injured this season.

2) O's have to make a decision on Mancini this off season.  Trade him or sign him for two years plus an option.   It they sign him they could trade him while he is under contract.  Probably when the O's have 4 OFers they want to play or when Mundy is ready for the majors.

3)You left Tyler Wells out,  I think he is a big piece either as a starter or late inning reliever.

4) Hunter Harvey is a wish and a pray at this point.   I would not plan on him being a big part of the 2022 team.

5) We will have wait to see how Mateo fits but right now he seems to fit as the starting 2B.   He is probably better there than Urias.  

6) You want to add a starter, late inning reliever and a 3B.  I would not argue with that.

[Philip]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

With plenty of threads available for venting about the current team, Elias, ownership, etc, I thought I would start a thread specifically for constructive thinking about getting back to contention. Yes, we will be lucky to win 60 games and can be justly accused of tanking. Yes, we have a history of organizational dysfunction and mismanagement. Yes, we appear to be doing everything possible to save a buck during the rebuild phase. Still, we have gone from bottom of the basement to one of the top farm systems in baseball, including the #1 overall prospect and the #1 pitching prospect (who some here think is even better than Rutschman). We have a pretty young team with few players expected to regress due to age. We also have no long term contracts and tons of payroll flexibility in the years ahead. 

The first milestone to hit before we can be considered a contender again would be to get back to .500. What would it take to hit that milestone next year? Current team is sitting at 8 WAR. Let’s assume on track for 10 WAR/60 wins. We should need about 32 total WAR to get close to .500 (2018 Phillies had 31 WAR, 80 wins; Pirates had 32 WAR, 82 wins).  

Goal:  Get to .500 in 2022 while spending no more than $20M additional payroll next year. That amount is enough to significantly improve the club while giving us flexibility to go further should we succeed, or retool as needed. What is your plan to get to 32 WAR? Here is mine.

We should be calling up Grayson and Rutschman, along with a core of Mullins, Mountcastle, and Means. 

Next, we fill out the back end of the rotation and bullpen with actual prospects instead of current filler guys (Plutko, Valdez etc). Baumann and Zimmerman for the rotation, Bradish, Felix Bautista, Vespi, etc in the bullpen. Bradish can be kept stretched out to provide another option in case Baumann or Zimmerman falter. Also hopefully we get a few more innings out of Hunter Harvey. I’m not expecting much from any of these guys, just incremental improvement over what we have. Maybe 1 WAR from Bauman.

We still have some big holes to fill in the infield and both bullpen and rotation. My major offseason target is a good veteran SP (not ace) for about $14M AAV multiyear deal. Ideally I would like to get Robbie Ray for that but appears he is getting priced out of that level. Also look at Descalfini, Stroman, Rodon, Jon Gray. 

I am not spending on SS because Westburg looks on track for ‘23, possibly even late ‘22. I also think Urias can hold down 2B until Vavra or someone better emerges. He is sitting at 1 WAR in only 200 AB's. It is looking like the earliest Gunnar will be ready is ‘24 so we still need a stopgap for 3B. Still, I would like an upgrade over Franco. I am thinking Josh Harrison or Eduardo Escobar on a one year deal similar to the Iglesias contract, about $3M.

Finally, we still need to shore up the bullpen. I am looking for a veteran late inning bullpen guy with some closing experience. Could we get Brad Boxberger and Steve Cishek for around $3M? 

If we could fill those holes on budget, this would get us the following roster and what I would call not-unrealistic WAR projections, totaling 32 WAR. 

Rotation: Means (3), Ray/Descalifini (2.5), Rodriguez (3.5), Baumann (1), Zimmerman (0.5)

Bullpen: Boxberger/Cishek (1.5), Harvey (1), Scott (0.5), Sulser (1), Bautista (0.5), Fry (0.5), Bradish/Vespi

Infield: Mountcastle 1B (1), Urias 2B (1.5), Martin/Mateo SS, Harrison/Escobar 3B (2)

Outfield: Mullins CF (4), Hays LF (1.5), Santander RF (1) 

DH: Mancini (1.5)

Rutschman (4), Wynns

Look to trade Mancini and Santander at the deadline. We will lose some WAR there but hopefully get some return. Replace them with some combination of Stowers, Diaz, and Mundy. 

Depending on how close we get to .500 in '22, we could open up the checkbook for Nola/Clevinger or Jose Ramirez/Muncy depending on where we have the biggest holes to upgrade.  Alternatively, if this plan doesn't work out, the $20M isn't enough to commit us to anything. We can trade Means and flip Ray for more prospects if we need to retool.

Either way, we still have a pipeline to further improve the club with Westburg and potentially Hall and Henderson in '23, and Kjerstad and Cowser in '24 (look to trade Austin Hays at that point), along with Mayo if Henderson busts. 

Feel free to critique my plan or suggest your own. It's a challenging thought exercise but I think it can be done.

What you have offered is really nice, I need to really study it, and it deserves to be really studied. Off the top of my head, I could suggest

 Collin McHugh. Ever since he found out he was allergic to gluten, his career has been quite good, although he has suffered some injuries, and he’s bounced around a bit, currently with the Rays. He has some upside and won’t be expensive, he is also a wonderful human being, trashcan incident aside.

Kyle Seager will be a FA. He is also advancing in years, but he remains a fine third baseman, with nine 20 home run home run seasons. He’s about 33, and has more of a past than a future, but he might be obtainable for a reasonable price.

Andrelton Simmons May be the greatest shortstop in the history of the game, with apologies to Ozzie Smith. He never hit well, but I think that’s why he would be cheap and available. I think he will be a free agent.

That’s just off the top of my head, but your post deserves a little bit more in depth reply.

Edited August 19, 2021 by Philip

[Aristotelian]

31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Couple of comments:

1) 5 starters is not near enough.  So far the O's have used 10 starters this year.   The O's need at least 8 going into next year considering the Means, Zimmermann and Baumann have all been injured this season.

2) O's have to make a decision on Mancini this off season.  Trade him or sign him for two years plus an option.   It they sign him they could trade him while he is under contract.  Probably when the O's have 4 OFers they want to play or when Mundy is ready for the majors.

3)You left Tyler Wells out,  I think he is a big piece either as a starter or late inning reliever.

4) Hunter Harvey is a wish and a pray at this point.   I would not plan on him being a big part of the 2022 team.

5) We will have wait to see how Mateo fits but right now he seems to fit as the starting 2B.   He is probably better there than Urias.  

6) You want to add a starter, late inning reliever and a 3B.  I would not argue with that.

Good catch on Wells. Could be a starter or could be bullpen if a Boxberger type is too expensive. Yes, I left out bench as well as injury replacement guys. My assumption is most of those guys would net out to zero WAR/replacement level so I don't need to count them. 

Also agreed on Mateo. Not sure whether he is 2B with Urias SS or vice versa (or nothing). Seems like they are giving him and Urias first crack at infield over Martin but that could change. Either way I am not counting Mateo or Martin for any WAR so anything we get from 2B/SS beyond Urias is bonus. 

Yeah, I know Harvey is a stretch but somehow he made it through 75 innings in 2019. I'm only counting on him for 1 WAR. Maybe downgrade Harvey to 0.5 WAR and give us 0.5 WAR for Wells. 1 WAR would not even be a stretch for Wells, he already has 0.8 this year despite missing time. 

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

What you have offered is really nice, I need to really study it, and it deserves to be really studied. Off the top of my head, I could suggest

 Collin McHugh. Ever since he found out he was allergic to gluten, his career has been quite good, although he has suffered some injuries, and he’s bounced around a bit currently with the raise. He has some upside and won’t be expensive, he is also a wonderful human being, trashcan incident aside.

Kyle Seager will be a FA. He is also advancing in years, but he remains a fine third baseman, with nine 20 home run home run seasons. He’s about 33, and has more of a past than a future, but he might be obtainable for a reasonable price.

Andrelton Simmons May be the greatest shortstop in the history of the game, with apologies to Ozzie Smith. He never hit well, but I think that’s why he would be cheap and available. I think he will be a free agent.

That’s just off the top of my head, but your post deserves a little bit more in depth reply.

Yep, I thought of all those guys. Does not have to be the ones I mentioned. The basic framework is $20M on infield, SP, and bullpen to net about 6 WAR. 

[Sports Guy]

Likely can’t happen unless the young guys blow up quickly and the existing pitching that has sucked this year bounces back in a big way.

Also, do you trade Trey and free up that space, meaning you could spend 28-30M?

[Philip]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Yep, I thought of all those guys. Does not have to be the ones I mentioned. The basic framework is $20M on infield, SP, and bullpen to net about 6 WAR. 

The only answer I cannot give, is a prospective cost. I don’t know how much a 33-year-old Kyle Seager would cost, especially since his bat has been on the decline for a while.

I am more comfortable with Collin McHugh, I think we can get him for 2-3 million for a season, maybe less. I should check what he signed for with the Red Sox, And I don’t know how he got from the Red Sox to the Rays, But I think he will be available this off-season.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Likely can’t happen unless the young guys blow up quickly and the existing pitching that has sucked this year bounces back in a big way.

Also, do you trade Trey and free up that space, meaning you could spend 28-30M?

I would have traded Mancini at the deadline this year. Since we kept him, I am assuming we keep him through next year's deadline. If you would rather trade or nontender Mancini and spend $30m, go for it. I think that is a solid idea although unlikely otherwise they would have already traded him. 

Yes, I definitely have a lot of WAR riding on Rutschman and Rodriguez. I tried to contain my projection for Rodriguez mostly because I don't think he will be called up right away. Aside from those two, I don't really have any young guys "blowing up". Just tried to assume current level of production and even some regression from Mullins. I do have 1 WAR from Baumann. If you think I have been generous in my WAR projection for anyone, feel free to point out and critique. 

[Sports Guy]

And you say increase payroll by 20M but what does that mean?

What I mean by that is, what is the total payroll you think we should/will have?

Are you adding 20M to where it is right now or where we started the season?

[Aristotelian]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And you say increase payroll by 20M but what does that mean?

What I mean by that is, what is the total payroll you think we should/will have?

Are you adding 20M to where it is right now or where we started the season?

By spend $20M, I mean spend $20M on free agents while retaining any arbitration guys you want within reason (i.e. not Severino). If you want to nontender Mancini, sure, you can nontender him and spend more on FA. I did not run the full numbers so I don't know what that adds up to and not being in the warehouse I don't really know what the number "should" be. It's just a hypothetical thought exercise to see if we could get to .500 on $20M. 

[fitzi22]

Whoa this could be a very difficult exercise and if Elias could pull this off he would truly prove that he has the makings of a really good GM.  That being said you are asking to field basically the same team as this year while adding $20 million in free agents and attempting to improve by 30 or so wins. Yikes. Personally I would put all the money into starting pitching except for a nice deal on a shortstop (Freddy Galvis I’m looking at you again). And then hope a few guys over perform like Mullins this year.

[ChuckS]

It's impossible to get to .500 on 20 mil and would be improbable even if we had 50 mil to spend this offseason. 

I do think we need to move towards being competitive again.  In this exercise, I'm using that 20 million to sign 1-2 serviceable starters and a third baseman that isn't sub-replacement level.  

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, fitzi22 said:

Whoa this could be a very difficult exercise and if Elias could pull this off he would truly prove that he has the makings of a really good GM.  That being said you are asking to field basically the same team as this year while adding $20 million in free agents and attempting to improve by 30 or so wins. Yikes. Personally I would put all the money into starting pitching except for a nice deal on a shortstop (Freddy Galvis I’m looking at you again). And then hope a few guys over perform like Mullins this year.

If we end up losing "only" 100 games it would be a 20 win improvement. When I started writing this post it looked like we were on track for 60 wins but after the last week you are right, it is looking like we will be lucky to end up with 50!

We would be adding Rutschman and Rodriguez at minimum so it would not be exactly the same team.

I agree, pitching is the top priority. Can't have enough and even with Grayson that is only two solid pitchers. 

[jdwilde1]

Here’s a link to the 2022 MLB unrestricted free agent class.  https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/ufa/
 

Some really big names are available.  Also, quite a few ex-O’s including Cobb, Bundy, Gausman, Eduardo Rodriguez, Andrew Miller, Zach Davies, and Nelson Cruz.

Another question is what would you do if the $100M floor is adopted (although I expect it would be implemented in stages).

Edited August 19, 2021 by jdwilde1
Added last sentence

[Ruzious]

Pardons if this isn't the best place to post this, but I thought it was somewhat relevant.  MLB Reportedly Proposes $180M First Tax Threshold $100M Salary Floor - RealGM Wiretap

I would love a 100 mil salary floor.