Is Matt Chapman a potential trade target?

[sportsfan8703]

I see yet another rock bottom team in 2022. It’s hard to go from that to near .500 in 2023. 2024 is realistic. Elias is making the owners their biggest profits in years. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I don't really see the logic in giving up the kind of prospect capital it would take to acquire 2 years of an increasingly expensive (and seemingly declining) Chapman when there is less than a 50/50 chance of us being a legitimate contender in those 2 years.

That feels like a Peter Angelos type of move to me, but ymmv 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't really see the logic in giving up the kind of prospect capital it would take to acquire 2 years of an increasingly expensive (and seemingly declining) Chapman when there is less than a 50/50 chance of us being a legitimate contender in those 2 years.

That feels like a Peter Angelos type of move to me, but ymmv 

Garrett Atkins comes to mind, though Chapman is a much better player.   

[OriolesMagic83]

23 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Is that a serious offer?  Do you think that’s all he is worth?

A failed prospect and a utility infielder.  I bet Oakland would be all over that. 

[sportsfan8703]

21 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

You were banking on 2023 as the turn around the other day I thought. Anyhow, if it's 2024 now, they may want to start searching for the next GM or whatever title Baltimore hands out. 

I just don’t see 2023 happening. We’re probably only going to win 45 games this year. Idk if you can double that to make the playoffs in 2023. We’re like the 76ers a few years ago. We’re two years away from being two years away. 

[maybenxtyr]

52 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just don’t see 2023 happening. We’re probably only going to win 45 games this year. Idk if you can double that to make the playoffs in 2023. We’re like the 76ers a few years ago. We’re two years away from being two years away. 

I don't disagree that they are much further away than originally thought...if they continue to wait on the farm system. At some point they need to start getting creative in augmenting the roster. Toronto has far more talent at the ML level than what we can hope for in the minor, yet they are merely competitive in the division. 

 

This off season Elias is going to have to get active. Otherwise, they may as well bring the toung guys up and build trade value so that whatever they bring back can be a part of the next competitive team. 

[RZNJ]

You never know in baseball.  By this time, next year things could be looking a lot better and I'm not saying any of these things happen just that some of them could happen.

1. John Means can stay healthy for most or all of next season

2. Austin Hays develops into a solid everyday LF or RF.

3. Cedric Mullins doesn't slide back significantly.

4. Grayson Rodriguez is up by June/July and looks like a future ace even if he doesn't exactly put up ace-like numbers.

5. Adley Rutschman becomes a huge defensive and offensive upgrade at catcher by May.

6. Two of Mateo/Jones/Nunez become acceptable placeholders at SS/2B

7. Santander stays healthy for the year (this is probably the longest shot)

8. One of Akin/A.Wells/Lowther/Kremer steps forward as an acceptable #5 type starter.

9. One of T.Wells/Bradish/Baumann become a promising young starter

10. A bullpen is made up of hard throwers Scott,T.Wells,J.Lopez,Bradish,Baumann,Felix Bautista,Ofelky Peralta, Burdi.

11. D.L. Hall come back healthy and positions himself for a callup by July of next year.

I don't think that's pie in the sky stuff to expect a majority of those things to happen.   I think that leaves us with a huge hole at 3B, a need for better players at 2B/SS but potential at most of the other spots.   A veteran starter or maybe even two is possible, especially if you aren't confident in any of the pitchers in #9 becoming a solid ML starter.

What I'm saying is that I could see this team as a respectable 70-75 wins as soon as next year.   As bad as this year has been with the disappointment of Akin, Kremer, and Hays, it can turn around just as fast.  

I just wouldn't be spending farm system capital to fill those holes or at least I'd be very careful about which pieces I moved.

 

 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

You never know in baseball.  By this time, next year things could be looking a lot better and I'm not saying any of these things happen just that some of them could happen.

1. John Means can stay healthy for most or all of next season

2. Austin Hays develops into a solid everyday LF or RF.

3. Cedric Mullins doesn't slide back significantly.

4. Grayson Rodriguez is up by June/July and looks like a future ace even if he doesn't exactly put up ace-like numbers.

5. Adley Rutschman becomes a huge defensive and offensive upgrade at catcher by May.

6. Two of Mateo/Jones/Nunez become acceptable placeholders at SS/2B

7. Santander stays healthy for the year (this is probably the longest shot)

8. One of Akin/A.Wells/Lowther/Kremer steps forward as an acceptable #5 type starter.

9. One of T.Wells/Bradish/Baumann become a promising young starter

10. A bullpen is made up of hard throwers Scott,T.Wells,J.Lopez,Bradish,Baumann,Felix Bautista,Ofelky Peralta, Burdi.

11. D.L. Hall come back healthy and positions himself for a callup by July of next year.

I don't think that's pie in the sky stuff to expect a majority of those things to happen.   I think that leaves us with a huge hole at 3B, a need for better players at 2B/SS but potential at most of the other spots.   A veteran starter or maybe even two is possible, especially if you aren't confident in any of the pitchers in #9 becoming a solid ML starter.

What I'm saying is that I could see this team as a respectable 70-75 wins as soon as next year.   As bad as this year has been with the disappointment of Akin, Kremer, and Hays, it can turn around just as fast.  

I just wouldn't be spending farm system capital to fill those holes or at least I'd be very careful about which pieces I moved.

Probably, some of those things will happen.  I think it’s a bit much to think a majority of them will happen.   But, I do agree there are reasonable paths to winning 70-75 games next year.   It really boils down to significant improvements to the pitching.   

[Porky]

I appreciate the suggestion by the original poster; I think Chapman is a player in an intriguing situation that certainly is fun to consider. Let's take a deeper look.

Chapman obviously is a good baseball player. Not news to anyone here, he's fallen from his MVP-vote levels the last two years at the plate. But, his elite defense has made up for it, if you're strictly looking at his WAR.

The difference in 2020 and 2021 - he's missing pitches and striking out a ton. Take a look at 2020, he was still hitting the ball hard and had elite percentile exit velocity. His 2020 xBA was similar to 2019, which was a productive offensive year for him. But his Whiff% changed greatly in 2020 - and he started striking out a ton compared to the rest of the league. His solid BB% also became terrible as a result. The silver lining was he was still hitting the ball hard in 2020.

In 2021, the issues have continued, but look even worse. Whiff% is the same as 2020, but his exit velocity and and HardHit% have now dropped too. He's already at 165 strikeouts for the year in 2021, his batting average is .221, and his OBP is .319. On the bright side - 21 HR, there is still power in the bat, and he doesn't ground into double-plays much. But, I'm seeing a declining Chris Davis type player here.

Why is that happening? I'm not sure - I don't watch the A's unless they are playing the O's. Either way, this downward offensive trend has been happening for a year - and it certainly wouldn't be the first time a very good player declined at the plate quickly.

To answer the original prompt of this thread, if I were the O's - no, I don't see Chapman remaining productive with the bat or the glove long enough to make a difference for a competitive O's team. If he's somehow non-tendered, I think as imaginary O's GM I would be interested in signing him and seeing if he could return to form. He'd probably be an attractive trade-chip too. That said, I'm doubtful he is non-tendered. And if he hypothetically was, I think there would be more attractive landing spots for him to consider than 3B at Camden Yards.

 

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, Porky said:

I appreciate the suggestion by the original poster; I think Chapman is a player in an intriguing situation that certainly is fun to consider. Let's take a deeper look.

Chapman obviously is a good baseball player. Not news to anyone here, he's fallen from his MVP-vote levels the last two years at the plate. But, his elite defense has made up for it, if you're strictly looking at his WAR.

The difference in 2020 and 2021 - he's missing pitches and striking out a ton. Take a look at 2020, he was still hitting the ball hard and had elite percentile exit velocity. His 2020 xBA was similar to 2019, which was a productive offensive year for him. But his Whiff% changed greatly in 2020 - and he started striking out a ton compared to the rest of the league. His solid BB% also became terrible as a result. The silver lining was he was still hitting the ball hard in 2020.

In 2021, the issues have continued, but look even worse. Whiff% is the same as 2020, but his exit velocity and and HardHit% have now dropped too. He's already at 165 strikeouts for the year in 2021, his batting average is .221, and his OBP is .319. On the bright side - 21 HR, there is still power in the bat, and he doesn't ground into double-plays much. But, I'm seeing a declining Chris Davis type player here.

Why is that happening? I'm not sure - I don't watch the A's unless they are playing the O's. Either way, this downward offensive trend has been happening for a year - and it certainly wouldn't be the first time a very good player declined at the plate quickly.

To answer the original prompt of this thread, if I were the O's - no, I don't see Chapman remaining productive with the bat or the glove long enough to make a difference for a competitive O's team. If he's somehow non-tendered, I think as imaginary O's GM I would be interested in signing him and seeing if he could return to form. He'd probably be an attractive trade-chip too. That said, I'm doubtful he is non-tendered. And if he hypothetically was, I think there would be more attractive landing spots for him to consider than 3B at Camden Yards.

 

Nice post.

[Sports Guy]

The BJs are going to be really good.

 

Really interested to see what they have to give up.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Some teams have a burning to win. Others have a burning to be in AAA .  1983 was a long time ago. 38 years ago to be exact. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Some teams have a burning to win. Others have a burning to be in AAA .  1983 was a long time ago. 38 years ago to be exact. 

39

[Beysbol]

I really like Chapman. He's a good player and now he's going to Toronto!? Sucks the Orioles can't get a guy like that. 

[Orioles0615]

18 minutes ago, Beysbol said:

I really like Chapman. He's a good player and now he's going to Toronto!? Sucks the Orioles can't get a guy like that. 

They could but they choose not to