Proposal: O's spend 40m in FA

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, OrangeTurtle said:

You mean like Brad Hand? Oh, wait.. 

I trust our regime and scouts to help mitigate situations where you're buying a "sure thing" and then they fall off the face of the earth, but why waste money at all when we arent WS contenders the next 2 years?

You can improve the club with an aim to respectability in the coming years in more economical ways with respect to risk, IMO.

We have a TON of guys in AA/AAA that have ceiling of #4/#5 starters. Clubs don't trade for those guys. You get the best value by converting them to relievers and hope they can be valuable members to your 26, without putting them on the bump every 5th day and praying for the best.

I don’t want some middling reliever.  But an impact back of the pen, vet type guy is fine.  

One of the things this team lacks are players who know how to win.  You do need that.  I don’t want them going out and signing guys who are one year wonders or something like that but if a true impact reliever is available, I would like to get one.

The one misnomer amongst fans is that relievers are interchangeable and while that is true for a lot of guys, it’s not true for all.  I like a lot of the arms we have to be viable reliever candidates and some of them sooner than later but I still feel we need one guy for the back end role.

[Sports Guy]

51 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Like the Angels.

Not really 

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is difference between spending and spending on high risk long term contracts.

Of course..but spending poorly is spending poorly whether it’s short or long term.  This idea (again, one the Os may do) is spending money poorly.

[OrangeTurtle]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think next year does matter.    

Vogt is not known a good defensive catcher and he will be 37,

I would not pay 5m for Gomez to be a backup catcher and its inconsistent for you to if you think next year does not matter.

SSS but Vogt has been a positive defender the past 2 years.

Not sure how it's inconsistent. Next year only matters to me in the sense that you're showing that we are taking stuff slightly more seriously going into 2023/2024 when we should truly start "going for the playoffs". Next year matters in how you want the kids to succeed and you want to surround them with professionals instead of the garbage currently taking up roster space.

I'd be happy if the Os had a 8-12 range pick next year, for reference. Enough to show we have improved and our direction is moving upwards.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Exactly. But if the guy isn't in our system currently, to get someone that isnt total garbage, the going rate is probably going to be around 3M. There are far better options at that price point than Severino.

 

Name them. And not some 37 or 38 year old guy.

[OrangeTurtle]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t want some middling reliever.  But an impact back of the pen, vet type guy is fine.  

One of the things this team lacks are players who know how to win.  You do need that.  I don’t want them going out and signing guys who are one year wonders or something like that but if a true impact reliever is available, I would like to get one.

The one misnomer amongst fans is that relievers are interchangeable and while that is true for a lot of guys, it’s not true for all.  I like a lot of the arms we have to be viable reliever candidates and some of them sooner than later but I still feel we need one guy for the back end role.

I agree that solid relievers are valuable, but even with consistent types, you have years like Hand/Kenley/Chapman are having where they've imploded to different extents. Look at Familia as another example. I'm not in the business of getting those guys when we're still 2+ years away.

Everyone wants their Hader or Andrew Miller, but I'd rather go for those guys when we have a shot at the WS. 

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Name some relievers that you'd sign on a 1 year deal for next year and what you think they'd sign for, please.

SG brought up an O'Day caliber guy, with a track record, which is fine. But guys of that quality go for $10MM+. Brad Hand, for example, averaged like 1.5 fWAR over the past 4 years or whatever and signed a 1 year deal this past offseason for $10.5. He currently has a -.2 fWAR this year.

I just personally don't see what you're accomplishing by signing guys of that ilk or slightly worse at like $7MM on a 1 year deal when, at our VERY BEST, we might be a WC contender next year. At our best. Give those innings to our own farmhands to see what they got moving into 2023.

 

I am not OP but some guys I could see us targeting are Jeremy Jeffress, Steve Cishek, Brad Boxberger, Corey Knebel. As far as what that would accomplish, at some point we have to start acting like an actual MLB team and bullpen is an area where we could get pretty good bang for buck without also crippling us with long term contracts. A quality player could also be flipped at the deadline like Givens/Castro if 2022 goes as bad as '21.

[OrangeTurtle]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Name them. And not some 37 or 38 year old guy.

Lol, if Adley is your C for the future, why are you going after C that arent 35+? Why commit resources to better, younger players for them to ride the bench?

[OrangeTurtle]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am not OP but some guys I could see us targeting are Jeremy Jeffress, Steve Cishek, Brad Boxberger, Corey Knebel. As far as what that would accomplish, at some point we have to start acting like an actual MLB team and bullpen is an area where we could get pretty good bang for buck without also crippling us with long term contracts. A quality player could also be flipped at the deadline like Givens/Castro if 2022 goes as bad as '21.

Fair point, but I'm skeptical at how much bang for your buck you're getting out of those guys (but I like them as options).

At some point, we need to see what guys like Kremer and Brnovich and Mattson and Burdi and Bautista and others have at the ML level (in the bullpen). That time is next year because you don't want to experiment when we're fighting for a WC spot, IMO.

You can improve areas of the club for next year while also not locking down bullpen spots with lots of $$. Adding the relievers you mentioned aren't putting us over the top, but they are eating up finite resources that could have gone elsewhere.

[Redskins Rick]

The thing about relievers, is there is such a fine line, when they produce outstandingly and they slip just a tad bit, and become hitterable.

You never know when that will happen, so it makes me leery on spending to crazy for those.

 

[7Mo]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So who is your backup catcher?

Fair question but given that the signing likely won't happen until January, there's no way to know right now. 

Each January, there are veteran catchers still looking for a deal. I'd guess the O's have a list of 6-8 guys who might be available. Some teams will pay more and grab 1-2 but I think there are options available every offseason. Given that I don't think the O's will be spending more than they have to for a backup catcher, I think we have to wait and see who'll take a deal then. 

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Fair point, but I'm skeptical at how much bang for your buck you're getting out of those guys (but I like them as options).

At some point, we need to see what guys like Kremer and Brnovich and Mattson and Burdi and Bautista and others have at the ML level (in the bullpen). That time is next year because you don't want to experiment when we're fighting for a WC spot, IMO.

You can improve areas of the club for next year while also not locking down bullpen spots with lots of $$. Adding the relievers you mentioned aren't putting us over the top, but they are eating up finite resources that could have gone elsewhere.

If it is true that $1 saved now increases the 2023 budget by $1 I would agree. I'm not sure that is the case. Some think ownership will just pocket the savings. A more optimistic take is you might also have a bigger pie in the future with a more competitive product generating revenue. Teams like DET, KC, ARIZ and TEX are running $80M+ payrolls without contending. 

I think we have so many holes in the bullpen that we will have no shortage of opportunities for Bautista etc. 

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

SSS but Vogt has been a positive defender the past 2 years.

Not sure how it's inconsistent. Next year only matters to me in the sense that you're showing that we are taking stuff slightly more seriously going into 2023/2024 when we should truly start "going for the playoffs". Next year matters in how you want the kids to succeed and you want to surround them with professionals instead of the garbage currently taking up roster space.

I'd be happy if the Os had a 8-12 range pick next year, for reference. Enough to show we have improved and our direction is moving upwards.

Ok that is fine.  You like 37 year old Vogt who I have always known as an offense first catcher/1B with a weak arm.   I don't think he is any better than Severino in 50 games and he is much older.  But if you are happy with that....

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Lol, if Adley is your C for the future, why are you going after C that arent 35+? Why commit resources to better, younger players for them to ride the bench?

Because catcher is the toughest position with the most injury potential of all the positions.  Older guys get hurt more often and take longer to heal.   They get paid to sit on the IL.

[OrangeTurtle]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Ok that is fine.  You like 37 year old Vogt who I have always known as an offense first catcher/1B with a weak arm.   I don't think he is any better than Severino in 50 games and he is much older.  But if you are happy with that....

If we had unlimited resources, I would do/aim better and higher. Only so many dollars to go around.