Severino or Mancini - More Trade Value?

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, NCRaven said:

You can't seriously believe that a long term $160+ million dollar deal for Davis compares in any way to what Mancini will get in his final year of arbitration?  A one-year contract in the $10 million range?  The money owed Davis next year will have a bigger impact than anything Mancini makes in 22.

Can't see Mancini getting 10m after that 2nd half.   Maybe 7m.

[NCRaven]

51 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Can't see Mancini getting 10m after that 2nd half.   Maybe 7m.

Frobby can better explain the arbitration process and how comps based largely on service time are used to determine values.  After getting no raise in 2021 after missing all of 2020 recovering from cancer, I wouldn't be surprised by $10m.  However, if he only gets $7m, that further supports the concept of keeping him for another year.

[Ruzious]

If he's just 7 mil, keep him for 1 more year - as he's probably not blocking anyone of significance, and he's a team leader.  I really doubt they get anything of real value for him - if they do, it'll probably be someone who's over-paid that the other team is trying to dump.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Can't see Mancini getting 10m after that 2nd half.   Maybe 7m.

 

43 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Frobby can better explain the arbitration process and how comps based largely on service time are used to determine values.  After getting no raise in 2021 after missing all of 2020 recovering from cancer, I wouldn't be surprised by $10m.  However, if he only gets $7m, that further supports the concept of keeping him for another year.

I’m inclined to agree he won’t get $10 mm.   $7 mm is probably pretty close to the mark.   

Mark Canha is a pretty good, though weird, comp.   In Arb 2 he made $4.8 mm (compared to Trey’s $4.75 mm).   In the season that followed (last year) he was worth 1.6 rWAR (projects to 4.3 rWAR in a 162.game season) and his cumulative career rWAR was raised to 7.4 (Trey’s been worth 0.7 this year, 8.0 for his career).    Canha got a raise in Arb 3 to $6.925 mm.   I’d guess Trey will get something similar.   (Footnote: Canha rewarded the A’s with a 2.5 rWAR season, easily justifying his salary).   
 

[wildcard]

57 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

If he's just 7 mil, keep him for 1 more year - as he's probably not blocking anyone of significance, and he's a team leader.  I really doubt they get anything of real value for him - if they do, it'll probably be someone who's over-paid that the other team is trying to dump.  

I either want the O's to sign Mancini to a 2 year contract or trade him.  I don't want to see him walk after 2022 and the O's get nothing for him.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

On 9/30/2021 at 7:53 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

Severino has finished strong and Mancini has faded. Both could get dealt for various reasons. Severino is at .247/.308/.386/.694 and 1.0 WAR. Mancini is at .253/.325/.433/.758 and 0.7 WAR.  
 

Who is more likely to bring the better return?

People calling for him to be DFA-ed all season now he’s got a ton of trade value? Extremes people!

[Ruzious]

Put it this way; Atlanta traded for 4 OFers right before the trade deadline - all around Trey's value tier - some better - and none of them cost anything of value to the Braves.  I don't want to see him blocking anyone on the O's in 2023.  

[HowAboutThat]

10 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

People calling for him to be DFA-ed all season now he’s got a ton of trade value? Extremes people!

Severino has no trade value.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

Severino has no trade value.

Closer to zero, if not zero. Anything is possible if there is a fit, great bat off the bench in the NL has value too.

[sportsfan8703]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

I’m inclined to agree he won’t get $10 mm.   $7 mm is probably pretty close to the mark.   

Mark Canha is a pretty good, though weird, comp.   In Arb 2 he made $4.8 mm (compared to Trey’s $4.75 mm).   In the season that followed (last year) he was worth 1.6 rWAR (projects to 4.3 rWAR in a 162.game season) and his cumulative career rWAR was raised to 7.4 (Trey’s been worth 0.7 this year, 8.0 for his career).    Canha got a raise in Arb 3 to $6.925 mm.   I’d guess Trey will get something similar.   (Footnote: Canha rewarded the A’s with a 2.5 rWAR season, easily justifying his salary).   
 

Great comp. I think Trey stays and is dealt at the deadline. 

[sportsfan8703]

I think you could see teams like Clev, HOU, SEA, NYM, and StL, being interested in Severino in the offseason.

 

 

 

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think you could see teams like Clev, HOU, SEA, NYM, and StL, being interested in Severino in the offseason.

 

 

 

If by "being interested" you mean kicking the tires at $1 million or so after we non tender him, sure I could see that.

But if you mean giving up anything at all in trade to put him on their 40 man roster and go to arbitration with him and pay him arbitration rate, I think there is zero chance of that.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think you could see teams like Clev, HOU, SEA, NYM, and StL, being interested in Severino in the offseason.

 

 

 

Molina is retiring after 2022 not 2021. 

[Sports Guy]

On 10/1/2021 at 5:27 PM, wildcard said:

I either want the O's to sign Mancini to a 2 year contract or trade him.  I don't want to see him walk after 2022 and the O's get nothing for him.

But you are ok with him walking after 2023 for nothing?

[jamalshw]

My heart wants Mancini back and to be part of a winning team in Baltimore when that happens again. That said, his lack of versatility is an issue for that. I think there's still a place on this team in 2022 for sure and then we can see what he looks like the second year back from cancer. I have to believe what he went through last year played a role in his second half decline. I expect him to have an OPS up around .800 next year. Is that great for a 1B/DH? Nope. But it's fine for next year. We can see if he can get closer to his 2019 numbers and become a legitimate trade chip (or--perhaps--prove himself to be a piece for a few more years and earn an extension). For now, I think he has more value to the Orioles than he has in whatever minimal return he can fetch.