Payroll expectation for 2022

[Sports Guy]

For the  2021 season, according to Cots, the Orioles payroll was 57M.  A large chunk of that payroll was Chris Davis.  We also paid 10M to the Angels in the Cobb deal.

With the Cobb deal off the books and the Davis deal cut in half for 2022, we obviously won’t have those issues to deal with.  
 

On top of that, we have no other guaranteed money on the books for 2022 unless there are some deferred payments (Cobb? ODay?) happening in 2022 that Cots isn’t showing.

I did an exercise the other day where we have about 14-16 guys guaranteed to be on the team and only a few are in their arb 1 seasons..everyone else is pre arb.   Those salaries would be under 15M for those 14-16 guys (I had 14 definites and then Akin and Zimmermann were maybes).

I didn’t include Mancini or Santander as “guarantees”.

So, where do you expect to see the payroll go?  Higher?  Lose?  Same area?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

TIn 2021, according to Cots, the Orioles payroll was 57M.  A large chunk of that payroll was Chris Davis.  We also paid 10M to the Angels in the Cobb deal.

With the Cobb deal off the books and the Davis deal cut in half for 2022, we obviously won’t have those issues to deal with.  
 

On top of that, we have no other guaranteed money on the books for 2022 unless there are some deferred payments (Cobb? ODay?) happening in 2022 that Cots isn’t showing.

I did an exercise the other day where we have about 14-16 guys guaranteed to be on the team and only a few are in their arb 1 seasons..everyone else is pre arb.   Those salaries would be under 15M for those 14-16 guys (I had 14 definites and then Akin and Zimmermann were maybes).

I didn’t include Mancini or Santander as “guarantees”.

So, where do you expect to see the payroll go?  Higher?  Lose?  Same area?

Looking at this they owe four players deferred money on top of Davis.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/payroll/2022/

Comes to 10M total

[maybenxtyr]

I picked the 41-50 option, but I meant that as actual payroll for the on field team. I'm not sure what that means as far as obligations for arb and minimum salaries.

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Looking at this they owe four players deferred money on top of Davis.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/payroll/2022/

Comes to 10M total

Plus Mancini is Arb3, Santander and Severino are Arb2, Means and Scott are Arb1. That's, what, $20M? Although some thing Severino might be nontendered. Valaika is Arb2 but I assume he gets nontendered. 

That leaves about 30 guys on the 40man making $500k, so perhaps $15M. Comes out to about $45M plus Davis.

I've lost of track of how much we owe Davis going forward with the additional deferral on top of the new deferral. That Cots site says $17M for '22, is that up to date? It's got to be less than the original $23M, right? If that's correct that would put us at $62M plus free agents.

[Aristotelian]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Looking at this they owe four players deferred money on top of Davis.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/payroll/2022/

Comes to 10M total

Most of which is Cobb, so he is still on the books if we are counting total payroll. 

[Moose Milligan]

I think it'll be in that 51-60 million range.  Wouldn't be surprised if it's less, though.

IMO, it's also not how much they're spending, it's who they're spending it on and if it's a smart move or not.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Looking at this they owe four players deferred money on top of Davis.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/payroll/2022/

Comes to 10M total

Ok thanks.  I don’t usually like spotrac but that seems accurate to me.

So, that brings up to the 23-25M range plus Davis, which should be another 8.5M.  So, we are in the low 30s and have 8-10 players left for the roster.

[Frobby]

Arb-eligible guys we might keep: Mancini, Means, Santander, Severino, Lopez, Fry, Scott.   My guess is if we kept them all, they’d cost $20-22 mm.

Arb guy we won’t keep: Valaika 

I figure we’ll spend $20 mm on some pitchers and infielders.   Then the $16 mm in deferred compensation, if I understand it correctly.   

Then maybe 15 pre-Arb guys for a total of $9isn million.  

So, $67 mm?   $51 mm if you look exclude deferred compensation.   I’m probably a little high here but whatever.  

 

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think it'll be in that 51-60 million range.  Wouldn't be surprised if it's less, though.

IMO, it's also not how much they're spending, it's who they're spending it on and if it's a smart move or not.  

This is who I put down as guarantees to be on the OD roster the other day(again, this assumes health and no trades):

1st- Mountcastle 

LF- Hays

CF- Mullins

 C- Adley

Urias and Mateo..some kind of a role.

Means, Grayson, T Wells, Tate, Scott, H Harvey, J Lopez and Sulser.

Akin and Zimmermann as the other 2 maybe/likely guys but not guarantees.

So, 14-16 guys making less than 15M.

Add in the other 18.5 in players who aren’t on the roster and you are are in the 31-34M range.

You have to add a back up C, at least one starter, a 4th OFer, Bp arm, a DH, starting OFer, at least one starting IFer, amongst others.

McKenna can be one of those and your back up C isn’t costing much at all.  So if you want to just call it 35M and include Akin and Zimmermann, you are at 18 spots taken.

That gives you another 23M to spend just to get to the 2021 number.

If you bring back Mancini and/or Santander, you add another 7-10M Onto the payroll.  

[UMDTerrapins]

I assume we're talking opening day payroll. I'd love to add a few contracts this offseason, but I'm skeptical because I still think this organization is preparing for a sale when PA has passed. I'm a little uncomfortable talking about it, but it is the reality we're living in due to tax considerations. If that assumption is true, I don't see us inking any long term deals. Maybe we pick up some shorter contracts through trades? I guess my point is until proven otherwise, I'm not expecting the payroll to expand much. The macro considerations haven't changed. 

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is who I put down as guarantees to be on the OD roster the other day(again, this assumes health and no trades):

 

1st- Mountcastle 

LF- Hays

CF- Mullins

 C- Adley

Urias and Mateo..some kind of a role.

Means, Grayson, T Wells, Tate, Scott, H Harvey, J Lopez and Sulser.

Akin and Zimmermann as the other 2 maybe/likely guys but not guarantees.

So, 14-16 guys making less than 15M.

Add in the other 18.5 in players who aren’t on the roster and you are are in the 31-34M range.

You have to add a back up C, at least one starter, a 4th OFer, Bp arm, a DH, starting OFer, at least one starting IFer, amongst others.

McKenna can be one of those and your back up C isn’t costing much at all.  So if you want to just call it 35M and include Akin and Zimmermann, you are at 18 spots taken.

That gives you another 23M to spend just to get to the 2021 number.

If you bring back Mancini and/or Santander, you add another 7-10M Onto the payroll.  

So you are counting the only the 26 man active roster and no deferred comp? If the purpose is to figure how much we might be able to spend I would include those dollars because they still matter. I would also I Clyde the 40 man since those guys do get paid.

[oriole]

I don’t care if I’m crazy but I’m voting for what I want them to do, not what they should or will do. Get some free agent pitchers and capitalize on this insane SS market and this team isn’t all  that bad. I’m the lone 70+ million vote so far lol 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So you are counting the only the 26 man active roster and no deferred comp? If the purpose is to figure how much we might be able to spend I would include those dollars because they still matter. I would also I Clyde the 40 man since those guys do get paid.

I’m counting total money spent..thought that was clear in that post when I talked about the other 18.5M?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, oriole said:

I don’t care if I’m crazy but I’m voting for what I want them to do, not what they should or will do. Get some free agent pitchers and capitalize on this insane SS market and this team isn’t all  that bad. I’m the lone 70+ million vote so far lol 

Oh no, I'll have to redo my whole shtick if that happens!

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, oriole said:

I don’t care if I’m crazy but I’m voting for what I want them to do, not what they should or will do. Get some free agent pitchers and capitalize on this insane SS market and this team isn’t all  that bad. I’m the lone 70+ million vote so far lol 

It is funny to think that they could sign Stroman and one of the SS or Bryant and end up with a payroll half of what it was a just 4-5 years ago.