Some early OPS projections are out already

[Frobby]

BB-ref has Marcel up on its player pages, while Fangraphs has Steamer up. 
Here are their OPS projections;

Mullins .801/.762

Mountcastle .793/.793

Mancini .790/.783

Hays .765/.762

Urias .761/.727

Santander .751/.761

Stewart .706/.729

Mateo .695/.654

Jones .669/.674

McKenna .663/.676

Gutierrez .661/.693

Rutschman —-/.787

Stowers —-/.750

Neither really drinking the Mullins Kool-Aid, but they at least project him to be decent.   
 

[Frobby]

Oh yeah, they’ve done the pitchers too:

Sulser 3.71/4.25

Means 3.88/4.46

T. Wells 4.17/4.27

Scott 4.19/3.58

Tate 4.29/4.24

Zimmermann 4.60/4.85

Lowther 4.72/4.90

Fry 4.75/3.94

Baumann 4.80/5.21

A. Wells 4.88/5.22

Akin 5.23/4.95

Kremer 5.28/5.04

Lopez 5.48/3.93

G. Rodriguez —-/4.67

Honestly, as mediocre as those numbers are, I’d probably sign for them in blood, because in almost every case they’re significantly better than last year.

Here’s a link to the Steamer pitching projections, all the O’s in one spot including many prospects I didn’t list.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=2&lg=all&players=0

Hitters are there too if you click on “batters.”

 

[InsideCoroner]

I get can’t upset at most of those hitting projections. Sure, we all want Mullins to exceed those numbers, but his OPS was under .800 the last two months of the season, so fair enough. Did he get a bit lucky from pitchers underestimating him sll year, though, or is he learning quickly? Probably the former, but hopefully he still gets better and can adjust.

Mountcastle was all over the place month-to-month, so a tick under .800 makes sense. Santander may well be a .760 OPS guy in between injuries, but if that’s the case, this coming year is probably his last year with the club. For however many games he manages to play.

[Orioles0615]

We could have Acuna and Soto on our team and fangraphs and steamer would still project them under .800 Ops just because they are Orioles and anything over .800 is overachieving 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

We could have Acuna and Soto on our team and fangraphs and steamer would still project them under .800 Ops just because they are Orioles and anything over .800 is overachieving 

Right, the mathematical algorithm is totally biased against your team.

Seems reasonable.

Hard to believe they might think a team that lost an average of 111 games over the last three full seasons might not have good players.

[Orioles0615]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right, the mathematical algorithm is totally biased against your team.

Seems reasonable.

Hard to believe they might think a team that lost an average of 111 games over the last three full seasons might not have good players.

Even when the O's were good, I feel like the projections were awful. 

[Sports Guy]

Those are the types of numbers that makes me want to trade Mullins if a team is valuing him higher than that.

[Camden_yardbird]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Those are the types of numbers that makes me want to trade Mullins if a team is valuing him higher than that.

What did the projections have him down for this year?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Camden_yardbird said:

What did the projections have him down for this year?

Not sure but I would bet a lot lower.

BTW, sign me up for an 800 OPS for him.  I would be fine with that.  But if someone is valuing him as an 825-900 OPS guy and they are overrating his defense, I would move him.

[Camden_yardbird]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Not sure but I would bet a lot lower.

BTW, sign me up for an 800 OPS for him.  I would be fine with that.  But if someone is valuing him as an 825-900 OPS guy and they are overrating his defense, I would move him.

What does that trade look like?  The Orioles aren't getting what the Sox got for Betts.  I can't think of any other analogs at the moment.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Camden_yardbird said:

What does that trade look like?  The Orioles aren't getting what the Sox got for Betts.  I can't think of any other analogs at the moment.

I think they could get what the Sox got.  Remember, Betts had no service time left and they took on the Price deal.

If some team is giving up a few top 100 guys, that’s a move you potentially make (obviously not all top 100 guys are created equal but just a general parameter).

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think they could get what the Sox got.  Remember, Betts had no service time left and they took on the Price deal.

If some team is giving up a few top 100 guys, that’s a move you potentially make (obviously not all top 100 guys are created equal but just a general parameter).

I can't see a team giving up a few top 100 guys in a Mullins trade, but if you find a team that is willing, I agree that it's a trade you have to probably have to make. 

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Those are the types of numbers that makes me want to trade Mullins if a team is valuing him higher than that.

Remember, those projections usually take the last three years into consideration. Obviously Mullins was a different guy when he went to hitting all left-handed last year so take those projections of him with a giant gain of salt. 

His EV last year was 51% percentile, while his max EV was at 67%. His xwOBA was at 68% while his xBA and xSLG were at 78% and 62% respectively. Add in his 86% sprint speed and 96% OOA on defense, and I think it all bodes well for him to repeat his breakout year. 

 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Remember, those projections usually take the last three years into consideration. Obviously Mullins was a different guy when he went to hitting all left-handed last year so take those projections of him with a giant gain of salt. 

His EV last year was 51% percentile, while his max EV was at 67%. His xwOBA was at 68% while his xBA and xSLG were at 78% and 62% respectively. Add in his 86% sprint speed and 96% OOA on defense, and I think it all bodes well for him to repeat his breakout year. 

 

The projections line up more with my expectations.  I’m thinking 800ish OpS, give or take 20 points and a 3ish WAR guy. 
 

That’s a very good player…but not the elite guy he was this year.  If someone wants to value him as elite, I’m dealing him.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The projections line up more with my expectations.  I’m thinking 800ish OpS, give or take 20 points and a 3ish WAR guy. 
 

That’s a very good player…but not the elite guy he was this year.  If someone wants to value him as elite, I’m dealing him.

Well every player should be available for the right trade. But if I'm the Orioles, I'd need to be blown away by the offer for Mullins.