Final Call: Who do the O's protect from the Rule 5 draft?

[HowAboutThat]

I remember when we drafted Ryan Flaherty, I think he was considered the best available rule five guy: A very high floor but a very low ceiling. His career WAR is minuscule(1.1)but he was a very valuable player for us for a few years and I’m glad we had him.

Here’s the question for the crowd:

Are other teams going to be looking at us and seeing, in the guys we leave unprotected, very low floors but high ceilings? Or high floors but low ceilings?

Pop was, I think, the latter, and the Marlins kept him.

What will they want? Is Grenier another Flaherty? Good glove Bad bat? Are we not protecting any reasonably potential starters like Sedlock(who retains that draft pick shine.)?

What do we want? I’m thinking if we want NOW Producers it might indicate Mike has flipped the switch.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Philip said:

I remember when we drafted Ryan Flaherty, I think he was considered the best available rule five guy: A very high floor but a very low ceiling. His career WAR is minuscule(1.1)but he was a very valuable player for us for a few years and I’m glad we had him.

Here’s the question for the crowd:

Are other teams going to be looking at us and seeing, in the guys we leave unprotected, very low floors but high ceilings? Or high floors but low ceilings?

Pop was, I think, the latter, and the Marlins kept him.

What will they want? Is Grenier another Flaherty? Good glove Bad bat? Are we not protecting any reasonably potential starters like Sedlock(who retains that draft pick shine.)?

What do we want? I’m thinking if we want NOW Producers it might indicate Mike has flipped the switch.

We took Flaherty with the 4th pick in the 2011 Rule 5 draft.  I don’t recall much buzz about him ahead of time.   The best pick in that draft turned out to be Marwin Gonzalez, chosen 10th by the Red Sox and traded immediately to Houston (so I suspect it was really Houston that selected him).   Flaherty turned out a little differently than advertised: a better defender and not as good a hitter as expected.   He certainly had his moments for us.   

[Frobby]

Melewski:

They’re in: pitchers DL Hall and Kyle Bradish
Almost certainly in: pitcher Kevin Smith and infielder Terrin Vavra
I would do it, but will the club?: Robert Neustromand Bautista

If there turn out to be only four or six protected from this group, that leaves a lot of players who no doubt will get strong consideration even if not added. That partial list would include Adam Hall, Patrick Dorrian, Brett Cumberland, Cadyn Grenier, Blaine Knight, Cody Sedlock, Ofelky Peralta and Brennan Hanifee, to name just a few.

There are pitchers they like that seem real longshots, like Lebron, Nick Vespi, Cameron Bishop, Logan Gillaspie, Diogenes Almengo and Tim Naughton.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/11/will-a-100-mph-fastball-get-this-pitcher-on-the-40-man.html

[Aristotelian]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Melewski:

They’re in: pitchers DL Hall and Kyle Bradish
Almost certainly in: pitcher Kevin Smith and infielder Terrin Vavra
I would do it, but will the club?: Robert Neustromand Bautista

If there turn out to be only four or six protected from this group, that leaves a lot of players who no doubt will get strong consideration even if not added. That partial list would include Adam Hall, Patrick Dorrian, Brett Cumberland, Cadyn Grenier, Blaine Knight, Cody Sedlock, Ofelky Peralta and Brennan Hanifee, to name just a few.

There are pitchers they like that seem real longshots, like Lebron, Nick Vespi, Cameron Bishop, Logan Gillaspie, Diogenes Almengo and Tim Naughton.

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/11/will-a-100-mph-fastball-get-this-pitcher-on-the-40-man.html

Interesting that Lebron was #3 in the organization in K rate. I could really see him getting snatched up if he isn't protected. 

[interloper]

On 11/15/2021 at 4:10 PM, Frobby said:

We took Flaherty with the 4th pick in the 2011 Rule 5 draft.  I don’t recall much buzz about him ahead of time.   The best pick in that draft turned out to be Marwin Gonzalez, chosen 10th by the Red Sox and traded immediately to Houston (so I suspect it was really Houston that selected him).   Flaherty turned out a little differently than advertised: a better defender and not as good a hitter as expected.   He certainly had his moments for us.   

Stepping in for Manny during the playoffs and playing as well as he did cemented him as one of those tongue-in-cheek Orioles legends. That and the gif. Fun player who I hope finds his way back to the organization in some capacity. 

[sportsfan8703]

It’s still an “advantage” for Elias that the cream of the farm system hasn’t hit the 40 man yet. 
 

Hall is a no brainer. Bradish, Smith, and Vavra we’re all acquired by Elias. So was Dorrian, so maybe that’s our surprise protect. Bautista and Neustrom should be protected. I would not be surprised if we saw a curveball and Elias goes Dorrian over Neustrom. Meaning he chose to protect “his” guy. 

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s still an “advantage” for Elias that the cream of the farm system hasn’t hit the 40 man yet. 
 

Hall is a no brainer. Bradish, Smith, and Vavra we’re all acquired by Elias. So was Dorrian, so maybe that’s our surprise protect. Bautista and Neustrom should be protected. I would not be surprised if we saw a curveball and Elias goes Dorrian over Neustrom. Meaning he chose to protect “his” guy. 

Would suck to lose Neustrom but seems like his ceiling is McKenna. It does seem like Dorrian has a higher chance of filling a need at some point. 

I also wonder whether we might see more guys dropped. Any reason we are keeping Martin, Bannon, and Diaz at this point? Nevin? If anyone claims those guys do we care? 

[Hazmat]

29 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s still an “advantage” for Elias that the cream of the farm system hasn’t hit the 40 man yet. 
 

Hall is a no brainer. Bradish, Smith, and Vavra we’re all acquired by Elias. So was Dorrian, so maybe that’s our surprise protect. Bautista and Neustrom should be protected. I would not be surprised if we saw a curveball and Elias goes Dorrian over Neustrom. Meaning he chose to protect “his” guy. 

I will be pretty upset if we lose Neustrom, especially if it's over someone like Dorrian.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

I will be pretty upset if we lose Neustrom, especially if it's over someone like Dorrian.

Dorrian shouldn’t even be under consideration and we have too many other crappy options to not protect Neustrom.  

[sportsfan8703]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would suck to lose Neustrom but seems like his ceiling is McKenna. It does seem like Dorrian has a higher chance of filling a need at some point. 

I also wonder whether we might see more guys dropped. Any reason we are keeping Martin, Bannon, and Diaz at this point? Nevin? If anyone claims those guys do we care? 

Martin and Nevin are Elias’ guys. Bannon is an option at a clear hole. Diaz gets one more season to harness his tools. He might start in AA. 

[sportsfan8703]

Like it or not, I think Martin and Bannon will be considered for the MLB roster in what will be a transition year. Dorrian might get protected. I think he does. Neustrom should get protected, but again not one of Elias’ guys. 
 

We’re starting to reach the point where except for AAA/MLB that 90% of the players in the org are Elias’ guys. 

Edited November 17, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[ChosenOne21]

I really don't get the Dorrian love. Neustrom is a much better player

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I really don't get the Dorrian love. Neustrom is a much better player

I’m not spewing Dorrian love. Just pointing out that he was a guy that Elias acquired in a trade. Just something to think about. Also, he plays 3B, which is right up there with SS as biggest positional need on the big club. People are dreaming about FA’s but it’s very likely that just with the pitching we trot out what we already have in our system to see what we have. 

[Hazmat]

6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Like it or not, I think Martin and Bannon will be considered for the MLB roster in what will be a transition year. Dorrian might get protected. I think he does. Neustrom should get protected, but again not one of Elias’ guys. 
 

We’re starting to reach the point where except for AAA/MLB that 90% of the players in the org are Elias’ guys. 

I'd like to see Bannon achieve a BA over .200 in AAA before he gets any consideration for the MLB roster.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Interesting that Lebron was #3 in the organization in K rate. I could really see him getting snatched up if he isn't protected. 

You sure do love yourself some 28-year old, 5-11 right-handed reliever, with a 5/3 BB/9 between AA/AAA don't you?