Final Call: Who do the O's protect from the Rule 5 draft?

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I really don't get the Dorrian love. Neustrom is a much better player

I don't think anyone loves Dorrian, it's just that we have a lot of options for outfield. 3B is a bigger hole and 22 HR jumps out. That said I am also not convinced Dorrian is the answer for us or that any MLB would carry him on their roster. 

[Jammer7]

19 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would suck to lose Neustrom but seems like his ceiling is McKenna. It does seem like Dorrian has a higher chance of filling a need at some point. 

I also wonder whether we might see more guys dropped. Any reason we are keeping Martin, Bannon, and Diaz at this point? Nevin? If anyone claims those guys do we care? 

I do not think Nevin or Diaz is going anywhere at this time. Nevin, in particular, is well liked. Elias has talked about his untapped power and working on pulling the ball more, along with his versatility. He was actually lauded for his defensive improvement, particularly at 3B. Diaz, might be on his last shot.

Martin, I think he is square on the bubble. If they want to keep Grenier, then I think Martin goes.

Bannon, I believe he is square on the bubble. Hard worker, who may have gained too much muscle mass last year. An under-sized 5-07 3B who had a terrible year with the bat. He apparently had a very unlucky season and hit the ball hard frequently. Elias cited that some of the advanced metrics were telling on Bannon. But I just cannot see how Bannon, who is 26, can be of more value to the organization than a guy like Neustrom. 

[Tony-OH]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Dorrian shouldn’t even be under consideration and we have too many other crappy options to not protect Neustrom.  

Neustrom is not good defensively, can't hit left-handers, and slashed .203/.285/.366/.651 with a 14 to 36 BB/K ratio over his last 138 PAs in AAA. What makes you think he'd be hot on anyone's list of Rule 5 selections? There may be ten better outfielders in the system that are better prospects.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Neustrom is not good defensively, can't hit left-handers, and slashed .203/.285/.366/.651 with a 14 to 36 BB/K ratio over his last 138 PAs in AAA. What takes you think he'd be hot on anyone's list of Rule 5 selections? There may be ten better outfielders in the system that are better prospects.

That’s fine…I would still protect him over some guys who are currently on the 40 man.  
 

Im not saying he’s some great prospect, just saying we have worse already here.  
 

And Dorrian is a non factor to me.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You sure do love yourself some 28-year old, 5-11 right-handed reliever, with a 5/3 BB/9 between AA/AAA don't you?

Love would be an overstatement. Walks are definitely concerning, but I don't care how short he is if he misses bats. 

[Tony-OH]

Bannon, Martin and Nevin are all guys that could still be dropped from the 40-man and no one should blink an eye.

One thing to remember about adding guys is that if you don't think they aren't going to get selected, you have no reason to add them to the 40-man.

There will be free agent signings and waiver claims that are still going to happen. Most of discussion here are on 40 level players, maybe 45 at best. Those guys fall out of minor league trees all the time. 

The only three that MUST be protected or will be taken is Bradish, Hall and Bautista. Even Vavra might not get selected, but I'd protect him over the three I mentioned earlier.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And Dorrian is a non factor to me.

Teams don't typically take platoon 3B/1B types who didn't hit well in the second half of their AA season. I don't see him being protected or taken.

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Would suck to lose Neustrom but seems like his ceiling is McKenna. 

Neustrom is nothing like McKenna.   Power hitter, so-so defender and runner. I’d say his ceiling is a slightly better version of DJ Stewart.    

[jamalshw]

Just now, Frobby said:

Neustrom is nothing like McKenna.   Power hitter, so-so defender and runner. I’d say his ceiling is a slightly better version of DJ Stewart.    

And given age and controllability, I would take him over Stewart. Much like you don't protect Grenier unless you drop Martin, maybe we don't protect Neustrom unless we drop Stewart? Then again, if we are talking similar players, maybe you keep the guy on the roster, don't protect the other, and hope to retain both in the organization and if that doesn't work, it's not all that big of a loss. 

[Jammer7]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't think anyone loves Dorrian, it's just that we have a lot of options for outfield. 3B is a bigger hole and 22 HR jumps out. That said I am also not convinced Dorrian is the answer for us or that any MLB would carry him on their roster. 

Agree. I have been beating a drum for months that I would keep Neustrom over Stewart. It isn’t even close for me. Ryan Fuller really helped Neustrom in AA and his AAA work was pretty solid as well. The one thing I do not like about Neustrom is his fairly low hand position at load. 

Dorrian had a really good year in AA. I believe he is 25, and his splits are not great. The defense is below average, but not terrible. He isn’t a real physical or athletic guy either. On the other hand, LH power has value. The Orioles are a very RH hitting team. I don’t think he has a shot at being added. 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Neustrom is nothing like McKenna.   Power hitter, so-so defender and runner. I’d say his ceiling is a slightly better version of DJ Stewart.    

DJ Stewart is a pretty good comp for Neustrom overall.

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

And given age and controllability, I would take him over Stewart. Much like you don't protect Grenier unless you drop Martin, maybe we don't protect Neustrom unless we drop Stewart? Then again, if we are talking similar players, maybe you keep the guy on the roster, don't protect the other, and hope to retain both in the organization and if that doesn't work, it's not all that big of a loss. 

Bingo. Neustrom is not getting selected.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Neustrom is not good defensively, can't hit left-handers, and slashed .203/.285/.366/.651 with a 14 to 36 BB/K ratio over his last 138 PAs in AAA. What makes you think he'd be hot on anyone's list of Rule 5 selections? There may be ten better outfielders in the system that are better prospects.

Hmmm, I’m sensing that Neustrom may not show up in the no. 27-30 prospects yet to be named…. 

[sportsfan8703]

We may have some players get selected. We lost Pop and Fenter last year, but got Fenter back. However, we saw the guys that Elias targeted in Scroeler and Wells. Big, tall, former SP, with good analytics. 
 

I think it might be important to see who are we at risk of losing in the milb portion of the rule 5 draft. I think that’s why we saw some late promotions to AAA. Grenier and Vespi, I believe. 

[Sports Guy]

I love how we get worried about having roster spots available for waived players and rule 5 guys.

For the most part, you aren’t talking about good players yet we are anxious to welcome them to our team.