I'm already over this offseason.

[Camden_yardbird]

10 hours ago, now said:

I like the thinking here. Again, it seems the task for Elias now is to arrive at greater confidence in when the real window starts. Previous premature announcements of "the Cavalry" come to mind to suggest caution. Statements like "This is the best looking crop of young prospects, etc. etc." only go so far. More hard data and performance benchmarks are needed.

While I agree that concrete performance evaluation is necessary to a certain extent the "Calvary" was an Orioles article about a group of prospects that Orioles fans could latch on to but in reality only contained 1-2 mid 100 ranked prospects and some good organizational prospects.

Adley and Grayson are the #1 positional and #1 pitching prospects in the game and Hall is also top 100.  Making sure they, and the team, can succeed from day 1 is important.

[now]

21 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

While I agree that concrete performance evaluation is necessary to a certain extent the "Calvary" was an Orioles article about a group of prospects that Orioles fans could latch on to but in reality only contained 1-2 mid 100 ranked prospects and some good organizational prospects.

Adley and Grayson are the #1 positional and #1 pitching prospects in the game and Hall is also top 100.  Making sure they, and the team, can succeed from day 1 is important.

That's a great point. Still, it's not enough (think Wieters, Bundy). What is needed also is a strong supporting cast. Certainly a bevy of high draft picks will help, but we all know that's still a crap shoot until they actually produce at high levels. 

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

If you think management or ownership is going to spend real money to make this bad team a little bit better, you aren't being realistic about things either.    

For me, I would like to see a legit MLB starter, maybe like an Alex Wood. It isn’t about winning more games for me, although that should happen a bit. It is about accounting for innings so the pen isn’t fried by June. It is about the young kids seeing an MLB starter, who has had legit success, go about his business.

I want these young arms to have opportunities, absolutely, but they have to earn them. Having a second guy account for around 140-160 innings, for me, is exactly what we need for the guys in the pen like Tate and Scott to have a chance to develop. And if they trade Means for a package they just could not say “no” to? I would expect them to sign a lesser impact guy like Matt Harvey to a lesser deal.

I am not thinking we should be all-in, not yet. But we should be fielding a more competitive team than the product in 2021. I agree with SG on that. This, for me, is about preparing to begin their ascent. Learning how to win takes a bit of time. When Adley, Grayson, Stowers and Westburg come up, they will inject some more hope and energy. But they still have to learn how to win at the MLB level. A few veteran guys will help with that. Maybe a catcher, a middle infielder and 1-2 starters, one of whom should be legitimate 3-4 type. That is what I would look to do. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok, so being a competitive team in 2022 isn’t important to you.  The Orioles  love fans like you.  You are buying into this.

But most fans aren’t like that, which is good.

Can I ask what you consider a "competitive team" to be in 2022. And what do you think it takes for a 110 loss team to become a competitive team in one season? How do they even do that? Who do you think they need to sign to make the Orioles competitive in 2022? 

The Orioles are going to be competitive year in and year out when the system starts to develop productive every day major league players. 

The system has developed Mullins, Hays and Mountcastle, and now Rutschman will be here in 2022.  Stowers and Rodriguez should be ready by some point in 2022. 

The next blast of guys are probably looking at 2023 and 2024 (Cowser, Henderson, Westburg, Vavra maybe, Mayo and maybe the 2022 1st round pick if he's pone of the college SSs)

So in 2022 we have:

1b: Mouncastle
2B: Urias/Mateo
SS: Mateo/Urias
3B: Hole.. Guttierrez I guess
LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF: Santander until he's hurt and Stowers takes over
Rutschman

If we get improvements from most of these guys that's not the worse lineup..

Pitching though is a disaster:
SP: Means
The next four will be filled by some combination of: T. Wells (if they give him a shot),Lowther, Zimmermann, Akin, Kremer, A. Wells, Bauman, Bradish and G. Rodriguez)

I'm going to assume the team will smarten up and put Lopez in the bullpen where he has a chance to actually proved value.

Even if they added in a Matz, this team's starting pitching still looks very suspect. The bullpen as well even if Bautista comes up and does well and Baumann and Akin can go to the pen and pitch well there.

I just think this team needs 2022 to figure out the roles if any of their pitching and hope that some break through while also hoping the younger players in the lineups continue to improve. 

With improvements, I could see this being a 72ish win team without free agents. 2023 would be the 82-85 win year, and 2024 would be when they should be expected to compete, and that's when they have no reason not to spend.

 

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Can I ask what you consider a "competitive team" to be in 2022. And what do you think it takes for a 110 loss team to become a competitive team in one season? How do they even do that? Who do you think they need to sign to make the Orioles competitive in 2022? 

The Orioles are going to be competitive year in and year out when the system starts to develop productive every day major league players. 

The system has developed Mullins, Hays and Mountcastle, and now Rutschman will be here in 2022.  Stowers and Rodriguez should be ready by some point in 2022. 

The next blast of guys are probably looking at 2023 and 2024 (Cowser, Henderson, Westburg, Vavra maybe, Mayo and maybe the 2022 1st round pick if he's pone of the college SSs)

So in 2022 we have:

1b: Mouncastle
2B: Urias/Mateo
SS: Mateo/Urias
3B: Hole.. Guttierrez I guess
LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF: Santander until he's hurt and Stowers takes over
Rutschman

If we get improvements from most of these guys that's not the worse lineup..

Pitching though is a disaster:
SP: Means
The next four will be filled by some combination of: T. Wells (if they give him a shot),Lowther, Zimmermann, Akin, Kremer, A. Wells, Bauman, Bradish and G. Rodriguez)

I'm going to assume the team will smarten up and put Lopez in the bullpen where he has a chance to actually proved value.

Even if they added in a Matz, this team's starting pitching still looks very suspect. The bullpen as well even if Bautista comes up and does well and Baumann and Akin can go to the pen and pitch well there.

I just think this team needs 2022 to figure out the roles if any of their pitching and hope that some break through while also hoping the younger players in the lineups continue to improve. 

With improvements, I could see this being a 72ish win team without free agents. 2023 would be the 82-85 win year, and 2024 would be when they should be expected to compete, and that's when they have no reason not to spend.

 

We should be trotting out a league Average lineup out there once AR is added. I like the upside of Urias/Mateo at MIF. Our big whole being Guiterrez at 3B, but even he isn’t going to drag the lineup down too far. 
 

However, the pitching side is ugly. We need to figure out what the heck we even have. Hopefully, a couple of guys will break out. At least as relievers. 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Can I ask what you consider a "competitive team" to be in 2022. And what do you think it takes for a 110 loss team to become a competitive team in one season? How do they even do that? Who do you think they need to sign to make the Orioles competitive in 2022? 

The Orioles are going to be competitive year in and year out when the system starts to develop productive every day major league players. 

The system has developed Mullins, Hays and Mountcastle, and now Rutschman will be here in 2022.  Stowers and Rodriguez should be ready by some point in 2022. 

The next blast of guys are probably looking at 2023 and 2024 (Cowser, Henderson, Westburg, Vavra maybe, Mayo and maybe the 2022 1st round pick if he's pone of the college SSs)

So in 2022 we have:

1b: Mouncastle
2B: Urias/Mateo
SS: Mateo/Urias
3B: Hole.. Guttierrez I guess
LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF: Santander until he's hurt and Stowers takes over
Rutschman

If we get improvements from most of these guys that's not the worse lineup..

Pitching though is a disaster:
SP: Means
The next four will be filled by some combination of: T. Wells (if they give him a shot),Lowther, Zimmermann, Akin, Kremer, A. Wells, Bauman, Bradish and G. Rodriguez)

I'm going to assume the team will smarten up and put Lopez in the bullpen where he has a chance to actually proved value.

Even if they added in a Matz, this team's starting pitching still looks very suspect. The bullpen as well even if Bautista comes up and does well and Baumann and Akin can go to the pen and pitch well there.

I just think this team needs 2022 to figure out the roles if any of their pitching and hope that some break through while also hoping the younger players in the lineups continue to improve. 

With improvements, I could see this being a 72ish win team without free agents. 2023 would be the 82-85 win year, and 2024 would be when they should be expected to compete, and that's when they have no reason not to spend.

 

To answer your question, a 70+ win team.

 

And sure, that could be a 70+ win team..just as they could have had that in 2021.  But coming back with essentially the same pitching staff and hoping for a 20+ game improvement isnt realistic to me.  You yourself don’t think much of most of those young starters and feel they are relievers at best.  I mean, I like a lot of those guys more than you do and I don’t feel they can be a competitive staff.  It’s not impossible but it’s not likely either.

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

To answer your question, a 70+ win team.

 

And sure, that could be a 70+ win team..just as they could have had that in 2021.  But coming back with essentially the same pitching staff and hoping for a 20+ game improvement isnt realistic to me.  You yourself don’t think much of most of those young starters and feel they are relievers at best.  I mean, I like a lot of those guys more than you do and I don’t feel they can be a competitive staff.  It’s not impossible but it’s not likely either.

Well, we're not talking about 2021, just moving forward right?

I don't think most of those are starters, but I do think Lowther will end up a decent 4th, 5th guy, Zimmermann might be a 5th starter. I think Bradish, Baumann, and Akin could be impact type relievers and Kremer might be better there as well.

T. Wells has the stuff to be a 3rd or 4th start of he can maintain his stuff through 100 pitches. 

But I guess I look at 2022 as the year where we find out what these guys roles should be moving forward. 

Then we add pithing talent in 2023 and 2024 since Rom, Pinto and maybe Young are the guys with a chance to be starters up here in 2023 and 2024.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, we're not talking about 2021, just moving forward right?

I don't think most of those are starters, but I do think Lowther will end up a decent 4th, 5th guy, Zimmermann might be a 5th starter. I think Bradish, Baumann, and Akin could be impact type relievers and Kremer might be better there as well.

T. Wells has the stuff to be a 3rd or 4th start of he can maintain his stuff through 100 pitches. 

But I guess I look at 2022 as the year where we find out what these guys roles should be moving forward. 

Then we add pithing talent in 2023 and 2024 since Rom, Pinto and maybe Young are the guys with a chance to be starters up here in 2023 and 2024.

I thought 2021 was supposed to be the year to find that out?  
 

Now it’s 2022.  What happens if things don’t work out in 2022?  Do we just keep holding things back? Do we just continue to sit on mountains of cash and not improve the team?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I thought 2021 was supposed to be the year to find that out?  
 

Now it’s 2022.  What happens if things don’t work out in 2022?  Do we just keep holding things back? Do we just continue to sit on mountains of cash and not improve the team?

Naw, you spend it on other stuff not related to the team.

[vab]

By the way, the idea that having a more competitive team doesn't effect the plan isn't true. Part of this thing is the tanking - nobody's going to say that formally obviously but they are counting on having access to the very top talent coming out every year during the first part of this rebuild which they are still in. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, vab said:

By the way, the idea that having a more competitive team doesn't effect the plan isn't true. Part of this thing is the tanking - nobody's going to say that formally obviously but they are counting on having access to the very top talent coming out every year during the first part of this rebuild which they are still in. 

There is no need to tank anymore.  That’s what the entire discussion is about.

[SilverRocket]

Matz's numbers are pretty similar to Ubaldo's and Cobb's when we signed them. 30 years old, #3 starter types, the sort of contract where you're paying for the first couple years and hoping the last couple aren't too much of a fade. I'm not against spending, but why is this the type of contract we'd want now, getting their worst years when we're finally competitive? I'd rather have a higher-end FA with some upside and longevity (e.g. Javy Baez, Marcus Stroman), or go the other way with a shorter contract for a veteran to tide us over (e.g. Michael Pineda).

[Moose Milligan]

19 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I agree with you completely, a lot of this type of contract gets signed and succeeds. This is what I will say about contract though.  Anecdotally it feels to me like the 2/$32-34 contracts work out a lot more often.  LeMahieu, Morton...

Also I would say this, if a small market team realizes its window is four years long it should not be signing these deals in year 3 or 4.  

You have to be real about it when you are a small market team, sustained competitive windows dont exist.  (Obligatory Tampa is an outlier statement here).  Plan for four year windows or get wrecked.

There's no windows if you do it right.  

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I thought 2021 was supposed to be the year to find that out?  
 

Now it’s 2022.  What happens if things don’t work out in 2022?  Do we just keep holding things back? Do we just continue to sit on mountains of cash and not improve the team?

2021 wasn't about winning at all and in fact you can make an argument about how they promoted guys that Elias did everything not to win.

First, you had innings limits on pitchers because of the missed year. Then you had the weird split spring training and other than Mountcastle, he didn't have legitimate "impact" prospects ready. 

On the pitching side he thought he had Kremer, Akins and Zimmermann ready, but Akin and Kremer crapped the bed and Zimmermann couldn't stay healthy. I've been saying for years that Akin is going to be a reliever and still think so, only Kremer was a giant disappointment in my mind. Lowther was handled awfully then he had the shoulder discomfort and didn't throw well until September when he was in a starter's routine and was used every 5 days.

When he needed to promote guys, especially pitchers, he didn't bring up prospects until he finally gave Alex Wells and Lowther a chance, but the cast of guys he brought up weren't major league pitchers. 

This year I think Lowther will be treated like a starting pitching prospect that he is, Tyler Wells should be given an opportunity to start, and hopefully Zimmermann will be able to stay healthy.

Grayson Rodriguez is close to being ready if he's not already, Rom is not far off, and now they have Baumann and Bradish ready, though I think they both are relievers.

With Rutschman ready, and Stowers close, he has two potential impact players ready.

So I guess I just see this as more of a true evaluation year. Other than 3B, we have have legitimate players at every position. 

Pitching wise, this team is not ready so I won't argue there, but I don't think this team is ready to start signing bigger named pitchers until they know what they really got. Plus, I'm not sure I see the pitcher(s) that will be good now and more important, in 2024 when I think they SHOULD be legitimate contenders. 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

There's no windows if you do it right.  

This is a true statement which is why the organization is being built from the inside. 

As I've said, until the organization has a series of talent coming up from the minor leagues to play or trade for established talent, we're not ready.