Taking a two year perspective

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a reason Mateo has never been given a chance to play and it’s not because he’s a stud.

And btw, Im not projecting anything.  I’m merely going with the odds and talking about what is likely.

 

 

[wildcard]

Which, of course, is projecting.

I guess we will see about Mateo because right now it looks like he enters ST with a good chance to win a starting role on opening day.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Which, of course, is projecting.

I guess we will see about Mateo because right now it looks like he enters ST with a good chance to win a starting role on opening day.

Yea, he will be a starter..because the team doesn’t want to try to get better, not because he deserves or has proven himself or is good enough.

It’s cheapness, nothing more.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, he will be a starter..because the team doesn’t want to try to get better, not because he deserves or has proven himself or is good enough.

It’s cheapness, nothing more.

What exactly is your plan for SS? 

[panick]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I will we a large sum of money that the entire 2023 rotation and entire 2023 starting lineup will not be comprised of players already here and if it is, we aren’t winning anything.

What?!

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What exactly is your plan for SS? 

I like the idea of trading for DeJong.

I think that’s a fairly easy thing to accomplish and he provides a high upside target who is signed for a reasonable price for a long time..or he has a chance to be a great trade commodity down the road if Henderson or Westburg turns out.

There are other options too…I mentioned adding Gregorious for Santander while also getting back Bryson Stott..we take on the entire DiDi contract.  But this likely only makes sense for Philly if they sign one of the SS FA, as was discussed.

But there are options like this out there..take on a contract to get back a SS prospect.

In other words, there are a lot of options and avenues to explore.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, panick said:

What?!

Lol..that’s supposed to be “bet a large sum of money”. 

[forphase1]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I like the idea of trading for DeJong.

 

Do you really think we have the depth at any position in the minors to be trading guys away right now?  Even looking at our supposed outfield depth, I'm not sure we are deep enough or talented enough there to trade any of them away at this point.  Some of the great depth there either hasn't been able to play (Kjerstad) or have little experience yet, even if the experience they do have has been solid (Cowser) or have flopped at this point (Diaz).  Like a bunch with this team, I think next year we will hopefully get a much clearer picture on what talent will be in the MLB in the next few years and who would be expendable.  Personally I think either Mullins or Hays will be in one of the spots for the next few years, with Cowser and Stowers holding down the other 2 spots, leaving some of the other depth (Kjerstad, Diaz, Haskins, etc) open to be traded or moved up if we trade one of the MLB starters.  Problem is at this point I'm not sure that Cowser has solidified himself to the point where I'm willing to pencil him in and trade some of the other top prospects.  Until we have a better understanding of who we have, I'd hesitate to trade any of them away.  

All that said, I DO think that trading to fill in some of the gaps we have (infield, pitching) is going to have to be done from our positions of strength (OF, possibly C) just not sure we know enough about the talent due to injury and/or newly drafted.  I'd hate for us to guess wrong, trade those OF prospects who end up being better, and then having holes in the OF as the ones we kept don't perform.  I'd personally feel much better with another season of game results before starting to trade our minor league talent and depth to improve the MLB squad.  But this is where the analytics could/should come into play, and the right decisions made.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Do you really think we have the depth at any position in the minors to be trading guys away right now?  Even looking at our supposed outfield depth, I'm not sure we are deep enough or talented enough there to trade any of them away at this point.  Some of the great depth there either hasn't been able to play (Kjerstad) or have little experience yet, even if the experience they do have has been solid (Cowser) or have flopped at this point (Diaz).  Like a bunch with this team, I think next year we will hopefully get a much clearer picture on what talent will be in the MLB in the next few years and who would be expendable.  Personally I think either Mullins or Hays will be in one of the spots for the next few years, with Cowser and Stowers holding down the other 2 spots, leaving some of the other depth (Kjerstad, Diaz, Haskins, etc) open to be traded or moved up if we trade one of the MLB starters.  Problem is at this point I'm not sure that Cowser has solidified himself to the point where I'm willing to pencil him in and trade some of the other top prospects.  Until we have a better understanding of who we have, I'd hesitate to trade any of them away.  

All that said, I DO think that trading to fill in some of the gaps we have (infield, pitching) is going to have to be done from our positions of strength (OF, possibly C) just not sure we know enough about the talent due to injury and/or newly drafted.  I'd hate for us to guess wrong, trade those OF prospects who end up being better, and then having holes in the OF as the ones we kept don't perform.  I'd personally feel much better with another season of game results before starting to trade our minor league talent and depth to improve the MLB squad.  But this is where the analytics could/should come into play, and the right decisions made.  

Yes, we definitely have the depth..especially to pick up a guy who is basically a salary dump at this point.

But we could acquire any player we want.  The system is deep and they are able to get anyone they would want..and then some.

[scOtt]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, we definitely have the depth..especially to pick up a guy who is basically a salary dump at this point.

But we could acquire any player we want.  The system is deep and they are able to get anyone they would want..and then some.

#1 or #2 in the 2 major lists.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The parallel that people will want to draw is from the 2008 Rays.  They improved 30ish games in one season. 
 

How did that happen?  Well, figure they got contributions from 2 big time rookies/young guys that they didn’t get in 2007…Garza and Longoria.  The combined for a WAR over 7.  Garza wasn’t a rookie and had several ML starts under his belt.  Longoria was a rookie.  We have our Longoria and we certainly may have our Garza although the leap has to be made in 2023 from GRod.  

Offensively, they actually scored 8 fewer runs. 

So, how did they do it?  The answer is run prevention.

The Rays went from the worst ERA in MLB in 2007 to the 3rd best in 2008.  They improved by nearly 2 runs.  They also went from the worst defensive team to the best.  

They went from allowing 944 runs to 671.

Can the 2023 Orioles see a run differential like that?  Is that something we should bank on?

In 2021, the Os allowed 956 runs.   A rebuilding team poised to take the momentum of 2021 to legit contender in 2022 is Detroit.  In 2021, Detroit allowed 756 runs and scored just under 700.  They won 77 games and Pythagorean theorem had them at 75 wins.

In 2021, the runs allowed about 300 runs more than they scored.  To get to that mid 70s, based off that Pythagorean record, they would need to improve by about 240 runs in 2022 to put them in realistic position to make the leap from mid 70s to mid 90s in one offseason.

How likely do you feel that is with the team doing next to nothing this offseason?  
 

Frobby started a thread recently about improving 100 runs.  I think that’s fairly realistic.  Let’s say they score 700 runs and allow 850.  That’s actually an improvement of about 200 runs.  That 150 run difference is around 67-70 wins.

So, if we are to assume that the team won’t be going from 50 wins to 95 wins and that some level of progression has to happen, the Os need to improve  by 200ish runs in 2022 and likely another 200 or so in 2023.  So, 400 runs in 2 years, one of which some of you are saying it would be a waste to make moves to get better.

So, tell me..how realistic is this?

I think we are going to have to get some favorable results from our own young pitchers to improve significantly in 2022. Last year was a bottom 20% outcome in that regard compared to the range of possible outcomes from that group.    If things break the other way in 2022 we could see a lot more wins.   But you can’t just expect that to happen given their performance to date.   

[wildcard]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think we are going to have to get some favorable results from our own young pitchers to improve significantly in 2022. Last year was a bottom 20% outcome in that regard compared to the range of possible outcomes from that group.    If things break the other way in 2022 we could see a lot more wins.   But you can’t just expect that to happen given their performance to date.   

Its the performance to data that gives me hope for a better rotation in 2022.

John Means- Probably is what he is at 28 years old which is pretty darn good.   3.60ish ERA,  26 starts, 150 IP,  1.100ish WHIP.   If the MLB decides on how to use tack he could do better.

Grayson Rodriguez- Only the best pitching prospect in baseball.   Will have the best stuff in O's ST camp.  Probably good for 135 IP in 2022.  May spend a month in AAA but when he arrives the O's will have a good 1-2 punch at the top of the order.

Tyler Wells-  Already knows the league from relieving last year.   According to Baseball Savant 95 mph fastball with a .176 avg, slider .196, and a change up .161. Tony believe he is a starting candidate entering ST and so do I.  Should be good for 100 IP.

Kyle Bradish- 19 AAA starts, 4.26 ERA.   Improved during the season.  0.90 ERA in his last 4 starts.   He probably needs some more time at AAA to begin the season, but he should be up soon.   Tony thinks he is a reliever and in the long run that may be true. He has been a starter in the minors and will probably get his chance. Should be good for 130 IP.

Mike Baumann-   Recovered from a 2020 arm injury in the first two month of 2021.   Had a 2.05 ERA in 4 July starts mostly at AA.  Had a 1.64 ERA in 5 August starts at AAA.  Promote to the O's in Sept.  Pitched well with a 95 mph fastball in a good outing vs KC.   92 MPH in his last three outing, two of which were against the Jays and Red Sox.  They weren't as good.   I think he ran out of gas.   A healthy off season  to strengthen his arm probably sets him up for a good 2022.   He probably starts the year at AAA but gets called up as a starter.   Tony thinks he is a reliever.  But the O's need starters and I think that is where he stays in 2022.  Could pitch between 100-160 IP.

DL Hall-  Top 100 prospect. High 90s fastball.  Improving control.  Arm injury in 2022 at AA.  Probably begins at AA and moves to AAA.  Could be in the majors by August.

These are not enough innings for the season and there are other starters that can fill those starts.  The real goal here is to set these starters up of 2023 when the innings limits are gone.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Its the performance to data that gives me hope for a better rotation in 2022.

John Means- Probably is what he is at 28 years old which is pretty darn good.   3.60ish ERA,  26 starts, 150 IP,  1.100ish WHIP.   If the MLB decides on how to use tack he could do better.

Grayson Rodriguez- Only the best pitching prospect in baseball.   Will have the best stuff in O's ST camp.  Probably good for 135 IP in 2022.  May spend a month in AAA but when he arrives the O's will have a good 1-2 punch at the top of the order.

Tyler Wells-  Already knows the league from relieving last year.   According to Baseball Savant 95 mph fastball with a .176 avg, slider .196, and a change up .161. Tony believe he is a starting candidate entering ST and so do I.  Should be good for 100 IP.

Kyle Bradish- 19 AAA starts, 4.26 ERA.   Improved during the season.  0.90 ERA in his last 4 starts.   He probably needs some more time at AAA to begin the season, but he should be up soon.   Tony thinks he is a reliever and in the long run that may be true. He has been a starter in the minors and will probably get his chance. Should be good for 130 IP.

Mike Baumann-   Recovered from a 2020 arm injury in the first two month of 2021.   Had a 2.05 ERA in 4 July starts mostly at AA.  Had a 1.64 ERA in 5 August starts at AAA.  Promote to the O's in Sept.  Pitched well with a 95 mph fastball in a good outing vs KC.   92 MPH in his last three outing, two of which were against the Jays and Red Sox.  They weren't as good.   I think he ran out of gas.   A healthy off season  to strengthen his arm probably sets him up for a good 2022.   He probably starts the year at AAA but gets called up as a starter.   Tony thinks he is a reliever.  But the O's need starters and I think that is where he stays in 2022.  Could pitch between 100-160 IP.

DL Hall-  Top 100 prospect. High 90s fastball.  Improving control.  Arm injury in 2022 at AA.  Probably begins at AA and moves to AAA.  Could be in the majors by August.

These are not enough innings for the season and there are other starters that can fill those starts.  The real goal here is to set these starters up of 2023 when the innings limits are gone.

You forgot to mention the 5 way tie for first place in the CY voting.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You forgot to mention the 5 way tie for first place in the CY voting.

It's always sunny at wildcards place!

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's always sunny at wildcards place!

There is a lot of negative on the board.  Lot of it is hard to read.   Fans come here for enjoyment.   Its not necessary to look at the negative side all the time.

There are positive things to talk about. If I look at the O's players that played last year half of them will be gone in 2022.   Some of the new ones should be better.   

Posters tear down the John Angelos and say all kinds of things with no proof at all.  He committed to the rebuild.  Hired a good guy to lead it.  Has supported international efforts, analytics, the new development system,  paying for high draft choices.   Losing can't be fun for him anymore than it is for the fans.   But some posters just want to trash him with no proof.

Elias is doing exactly what he said he would do.  We should be through he worst of the rebuild.  The tear down.  Now we get to see the fun part.  The build up.  The high draft choices and some young players that came in trades beginning their careers in the majors.  And it looks like their will be more and more for several years to come.

If posters want to be negative go post in a negative thread.  There are plenty of them.  When I start a positive  thread its for those that want to hear and think positively.  I like those posters to add to it and give their constructive input.  I wish the guys that want to be negative would go post in the other threads.   We ready don't need to read that stuff all the time.

I can probably find something positive to post most every day.  That is the way I want to spend my free time.  It is possible to be realistic and positive at the same time.  Yes, even about the O's.