O’s sign Jordan Lyles

[eddie83]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If a floor is incoming I'd 100% spend it on extensions for younger players.  I'm sure it would go by AAV so it wouldn't even raise current payroll by a lot.

Players would have to accept this. Obviously if it’s a raise from what the minimum or Arb salary they would have no reason not to. 
 

This is why the whole Salary floor being about “competitive balance” amuses me. It’s about increasing salaries of lower level or young players. Paying someone more money doesn’t increase their talent.  

[Ohfan67]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure if calling them the naughts instead of the oughts/aughts was intentional but I like to think it was.

Total Freudian slip! 

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even if they see something it's still bizarre they would pay that much to sign him this early.

They need to see something and be convinced that at least one other team was making him a priority.

Who are the hypothetical players they could sign for less money for similar production. If these players are out there then why not sign them as well? 

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You have been yelling for months/years about what a cheapskate the O's owner is and how Elias could spend much more on a variety for players of your choosing.  And certainly Elias has no history of over paying.

And you acknowledge that Elias is analytically driven.  

So maybe, just maybe he and Sig see something that you don't.  Maybe to get a starter to come to Camden Yard in the AL East for a last place team he had to pay.   But we will not know how good or bad an assessment Elias has made until after the season and if he is right it may not be true at all that this was the wrong thing to do.

It would be out of character for Elias to through 7m down the drain for no good reason when he has been trying to do nothing but cut payroll for 3 years.

 

Why waste your breath man? The thread is over. It's not like we're going to convince anyone of anything. Let 'em have their echo chamber if that's what they want. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Players would have to accept this. Obviously if it’s a raise from what the minimum or Arb salary they would have no reason not to. 
 

This is why the whole Salary floor being about “competitive balance” amuses me. It’s about increasing salaries of lower level or young players. Paying someone more money doesn’t increase their talent.  

I mean technically they could just give them raises if they wanted to or not, at least before they hit arbitration.  If the O's want to pay Mountcastle 5 million instead of the minimum they do have that ability and he can't refuse it.

[wildcard]

Just now, interloper said:

Why waste your breath man? The thread is over. It's not like we're going to convince anyone of anything. Let 'em have their echo chamber if that's what they want. 

I never think I can convince these guys of anything including the time of day.   Sometimes I just like to express my opinion and they are just there.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Who are the hypothetical players they could sign for less money for similar production. If these players are out there then why not sign them as well? 

They could sign Lyles for less after the lockout while guys are scrambling to get jobs.  Folks already compared him to Harvey and how much did Harvey sign for last year?

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I mean technically they could just give them raises if they wanted to or not, at least before they hit arbitration.  If the O's want to pay Mountcastle 5 million instead of the minimum they do have that ability and he can't refuse it.

Sure. I get that.

I’m not against players making more money. I just don’t want to hear the nonsense it’s about teams “trying to win.” The available pool of talent is the same if they make a combined $100M or $1B. 

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

They could sign Lyles for less after the lockout while guys are scrambling to get jobs.  Folks already compared him to Harvey and how much did Harvey sign for last year?

He is making $6M next year. Find me someone who threw 180 innings last year and would come to Baltimore for less. 
 

Out of the 30 teams this team right now would be the last place I would want to pitch except for maybe Colorado. Teams can always use a 5th starter. Hell a team like Boston could offer him $4M as an insurance policy. 
 

I’m not excited by this move. It’s like going to the store to buy deodorant or toothpaste. It is what it is. 

[Philip]

1 hour ago, jabba72 said:

Of course thats what you want. I want Rob Ray and Stroman to sign 3 year deals to pitch here. Unfortunately those pitchers have options, usually with a couple extra years added to the contract and teams with hopes of making the playoffs making the highest offer. 

Of course, what did I say that conflicts with what you just said? If you can’t get what you want for less than 7 million, you do without you don’t say, “oh well, he sucks but let’s give him $7 million anyway.”

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

He is making $6M next year. Find me someone who threw 180 innings last year and would come to Baltimore for less. 
 

Out of the 30 teams this team right now would be the last place I would want to pitch except for maybe Colorado. Teams can always use a 5th starter. Hell a team like Boston could offer him $4M as an insurance policy. 
 

I’m not excited by this move. It’s like going to the store to buy deodorant or toothpaste. It is what it is. 

You do realize he's thrown 180 innings in a season exactly once over his 11 year career?  Do you think it's sensible to assume he can match his career high moving from the AL West to the AL East?

[eddie83]

When I watch some of our young arms like Akin, Lowther, Zimmerman etc there is no way with their pitch-ability they can throw a high volume of innings. 
 

If you told me in mid June next year Lyles has an ERA of 6.85 I would not be surprised in the least. There are just trying to get some damn innings from someone and when you look at this staff where is it coming from?

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You do realize he's thrown 180 innings in a season exactly once over his 11 year career?  Do you think it's sensible to assume he can match his career high moving from the AL West to the AL East?

I think they believe he can soak up more innings then everyone on the current staff except if Means stays healthy. I doubt he gets to 180. On this staff 160 is a major accomplishment. 

[Frobby]

I’m trying to talk myself into liking this move a little better than I did initially.  fWAR likes Lyles more than rWAR (5.9 fWAR vs. -2.5 rWAR career).   I’m usually not a big fWAR fan when it comes to pitchers (it liked Ubaldo and Ponson to an absurd extent), but at least it’s something.   

Basically, this boils down to whether Lyles can come close to replicating last season while pitching for us, in our stadium, against the teams we face.   If he can come close, then he’s a useful addition.  I do think there’d be significant value in a guy who gets through 6+ innings 60% of the time and keeps you in the game 70-75% of the time.   Last year wasn’t pretty and we could use a bit more stability in the rotation.  

I do think $7 mm is a big overpay, but I won’t really care if he can give us 160-180 innings with an ERA in the low 5’s.  Last year we had 115 starts from pitchers who did significantly worse than that (collective ERA as starters: 6.80).   I’d be okay giving 30 of those to Lyles and hoping we get enough improvement out of others to fill the other 85.

[DrungoHazewood]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even if they see something it's still bizarre they would pay that much to sign him this early.

They need to see something and be convinced that at least one other team was making him a priority.

That's probably the most likely case.  The Orioles weren't the only team that thinks he has some hidden potential and someone else offered him almost that much.