O’s sign Jordan Lyles

[LookinUp]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fun with projections:

Marcel says 163 innings at 4.97 ERA.

Steamer says 158 innings at 5.50 ERA.

I’m sure neither of those factor in his move to Baltimore.   

"Not so" fun projections.

[interloper]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fun with projections:

Marcel says 163 innings at 4.97 ERA.

Steamer says 158 innings at 5.50 ERA.

I’m sure neither of those factor in his move to Baltimore.   

I would have loved for any of our pitching prospects to put up those kind of numbers last year. After Means, only Lopez approached those kinds of innings totals at 120 with a 6.07. 

[interloper]

I do have to wonder if this is protection in case of Means trade. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I would have loved for any of our pitching prospects to put up those kind of numbers last year. After Means, only Lopez approached those kinds of innings totals at 120 with a 6.07. 

We’ll, to be fair, these same projection systems have just about all of our young pitchers improving significantly in 2022.

Zimmermann 4.60/4.85

Lowther 4.72/4.90

Baumann 4.80/5.21

A. Wells 4.88/5.22

Akin 5.23/4.95

Kremer 5.28/5.04

Honestly I’d take any of those after last year’s debacle.   

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I do have to wonder if this is protection in case of Means trade. 

Could be. It also doesn’t hurt have a RH SP to balance out our rotation. Akin, Zimmerman, and Lowther looked better than Kremer and Baumann. We realistically could be looking at Means, Lyles, and the three lefties. Probably the odds on favorites for the rotation. 

[interloper]

@Tony-OH, what's your take on this one? 

[Tony-OH]

First concern: He allowed 38 home runs last year and if he were pitching in Camden Yards it would have been 45. Expect a lot of souvenirs.  

Second concern: He'll pitch at 31 years old and was not wanted by the Rangers who were bad last year.

Third Concern: This is the most expensive free agent Elias has signed and he's like the equivalent of Ubaldo, albeit less expensive and for one year vs four.

Fourth Concern: The Oriole decision makers think this is the kind of guy that makes us better in the AL East. It appears they are focused on his good fastball and curveball spin rates and not the fact that his expected stats against have been terrible for years. I'm starting to get worried that they are becoming a slave to the spin rate metrics and not fpocusing on whether a guy can make consistently good pitches. COMMAND is important. Just because a guy has good stuff doesn't make him a good pitcher. He has to be able to pitch and command those pitches and the expected stats, particularly over an extended period of time tell you how major league hitters handle him, and they've been hitting him hard for a while now.

Fifth concern: The signing of Odor (low OBP, power guy, questionable defense depending on metrics) and Lyle (Homer prone flyball pitcher who has been hit hard and no wanted by another last place team) is making me start to question Elias and team's ability to identify good major league talent that makes the team better. I realize these are fingers in the dam kind of moves, but they are underwhelming for sure and hold little upside. I'd rather give the ball to Bradish or Kremer (right-handed options) every five days and see what we have. 

 

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think there is potential here.

Lyles is a big strong guy, 6'5", 230lbs, which gives him the frame to pitch a lot of innings.   Baseball Savant shows he has 6 pitches - 4 seam fastball (93), Slider (83.3),  Curve (80.3), Sinker (91.6) and a Change at (86.4), Cutter (86.3).  Over the last 3 years different pitches have been effective for him in different years.  In different years the 4 seamer, slider, curve, and change have been effective.

He was effective as a starter with the Brewers in 2019 but has not done as well with the Pirates and Rangers in 2020 and 2021.  Maybe better coaching  and analytics will help him.    

Chris Holt has never coached Lyles.  Lyles was a 1st round pick of the Astros in 2008 out of high school.  Holt began coaching with the Astros in 2014.  Lyles was traded to the Rockies in Dec. 2013.  Elias and Lyles were both with the Astros in 2012 and 2013.

It will be interesting to see what Holt can do with Lyles in ST.  

 

 

Means gave Holt some credit with his changeup, but other than that, who has Holt made better and why do you think he's some magic wand for pitchers? I don't dislike Holt as a coordinator, but I see very little that he has improved to make me think he's a difference maker for a 31 year old pitcher.

[Just Regular]

Lyles wears the old Kevin Gregg "the best ability is availability" badge.

Just like Odor upgrades Valaika, the year over year for Lyles to beat is 56 innings of Plutko 6.75, 55 innings of Watkins 8.00, Lakins, Eshelman, and the list went on and on.   Easy indeed to improve a 110-loss team.

Agree with SG the money is irrelevant, better to pay double on a cheap item in hopes of lowering Baltimore premium towards 50% next time.

Fielding TEAM OAA in 2021 - the Rangers were 4th and the Orioles were 28th with a net of ~50 extra runs allowed by its estimation.

I kind of like for @Philip's sake we are getting so many recent Rangers, and think Elvis Andrus could be a trade dark horse candidate for the 2022 Orange Carpet.   I am glad OAK didn't tear down before the lockout in case any revenue sharing changes help them keep their group together, but tear down or not Andrus with 1/14 owed probably available nearly talent free if you want to pay him 2019 Villar/2020 Iglesias/2021 Galvis-ish money.

The high option feels like silly flattery, but maybe Holt just needs the raw material of a Dan Duquette-approved qualified major leaguer.

 

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

First concern: He allowed 38 home runs last year and if he were pitching in Camden Yards it would have been 45. Expect a lot of souvenirs.  

Second concern: He'll pitch at 31 years old and was not wanted by the Rangers who were bad last year.

Third Concern: This is the most expensive free agent Elias has signed and he's like the equivalent of Ubaldo, albeit less expensive and for one year vs four.

Fourth Concern: The Oriole decision makers think this is the kind of guy that makes us better in the AL East. It appears they are focused on his good fastball and curveball spin rates and not the fact that his expected stats against have been terrible for years. I'm starting to get worried that they are becoming a slave to the spin rate metrics and not fpocusing on whether a guy can make consistently good pitches. COMMAND is important. Just because a guy has good stuff doesn't make him a good pitcher. He has to be able to pitch and command those pitches and the expected stats, particularly over an extended period of time tell you how major league hitters handle him, and they've been hitting him hard for a while now.

Fifth concern: The signing of Odor (low OBP, power guy, questionable defense depending on metrics) and Lyle (Homer prone flyball pitcher who has been hit hard and no wanted by another last place team) is making me start to question Elias and team's ability to identify good major league talent that makes the team better. I realize these are fingers in the dam kind of moves, but they are underwhelming for sure and hold little upside. I'd rather give the ball to Bradish or Kremer (right-handed options) every five days and see what we have. 

 

All fair concerns. I tend to separate these types of stopgap moves (Odor, Lyles) from the Elias/Sig model. Like to me, this is mainly about innings and stability rather than spin rate or anything like that. But I could be wrong, of course. Or it could be both.

I do agree that there's just a lack of creativity in a lot of these moves. It's why I liked the Felix Hernandez signing, because there was at least some possible upside there. The Cobb trade was another alright move to essentially buy a prospect while you shed salary. But I would be lying if I said I wasn't expecting a little more creativity and shrewdness in Elias' moves. 

But at the end of the day, they had to overpay to get someone who has the ability to go 6 innings and throw 150 innings. It kind of reminds me of the Kevin Millwood claim or the Steve Trachsel deal. BUT - maybe they tweak his pitch selection and he trends more towards the Jason Hammel trade. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

All fair concerns. I tend to separate these types of stopgap moves (Odor, Lyles) from the Elias/Sig model. Like to me, this is mainly about innings and stability rather than spin rate or anything like that. But I could be wrong, of course. Or it could be both.

I do agree that there's just a lack of creativity in a lot of these moves. It's why I liked the Felix Hernandez signing, because there was at least some possible upside there. The Cobb trade was another alright move to essentially buy a prospect while you shed salary. But I would be lying if I said I wasn't expecting a little more creativity and shrewdness in Elias' moves. 

But at the end of the day, they had to overpay to get someone who has the ability to go 6 innings and throw 150 innings. It kind of reminds me of the Kevin Millwood claim or the Steve Trachsel deal. BUT - maybe they tweak his pitch selection and he trends more towards the Jason Hammel trade. 

 

Now I saw the Felix Hernandez signing and I saw

 

and

 

Maybe some

[jabba72]

Lyles pitched 180 innings last year and had a 2.8 BB9 so there are some positives even if he gave up 38 HR's. Probably an overpay by a few million but its a one year at 7M. Not much commitment for 180 innings.

Again, no Orioles starter came near that. 

[interloper]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Now I saw the Felix Hernandez signing and I saw

 

and

 

Maybe some

Fair, but I still liked it in the context of the trio of pitchers with LeBlanc and Harvey. I suppose predictably it didn't work out, but hey. 

Anyway, I'm holding out hope that Elias starts to stretch his GM legs a little pretty soon in terms of more interesting/creative moves. I know many here will tell me not to hold my breath. We'll see. I think we all have the same concerns about Lyles, it's just whether or not you can tolerate a boring "stability"-based move like this. I hesitate to say that it means much about what kind of players this front office likes to target. I think who they plug 26-man roster holes with at this stage are a lot different guys than who they target in the draft and in trades, etc. 

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

First concern: He allowed 38 home runs last year and if he were pitching in Camden Yards it would have been 45. Expect a lot of souvenirs.  

Second concern: He'll pitch at 31 years old and was not wanted by the Rangers who were bad last year.

Third Concern: This is the most expensive free agent Elias has signed and he's like the equivalent of Ubaldo, albeit less expensive and for one year vs four.

Fourth Concern: The Oriole decision makers think this is the kind of guy that makes us better in the AL East. It appears they are focused on his good fastball and curveball spin rates and not the fact that his expected stats against have been terrible for years. I'm starting to get worried that they are becoming a slave to the spin rate metrics and not fpocusing on whether a guy can make consistently good pitches. COMMAND is important. Just because a guy has good stuff doesn't make him a good pitcher. He has to be able to pitch and command those pitches and the expected stats, particularly over an extended period of time tell you how major league hitters handle him, and they've been hitting him hard for a while now.

Fifth concern: The signing of Odor (low OBP, power guy, questionable defense depending on metrics) and Lyle (Homer prone flyball pitcher who has been hit hard and no wanted by another last place team) is making me start to question Elias and team's ability to identify good major league talent that makes the team better. I realize these are fingers in the dam kind of moves, but they are underwhelming for sure and hold little upside. I'd rather give the ball to Bradish or Kremer (right-handed options) every five days and see what we have. 

 

I think Lyles has far less upside than Ubaldo had.   Ubaldo was terrible for us, but he had several seasons in his career that were far beyond what Lyles has ever done.   He came to Baltimore with a career 3.92 ERA despite having spent 6 seasons pitching in Coors Field.   (It should be noted that Lyles also pitched in Coors for 3.7 seasons.). Lyles is much more of a stopgap than Ubaldo was supposed to be.   

Honestly, I haven’t really found any veteran pitcher the O’s have ever signed who got paid as much as Lyles with such a mediocre track record.   Even the “innings eater” rationale is kind of overblown.   Other than last year, he’s never pitched 150 innings in a season.  

I doubt the O’s are as one-track minded as to pay a guy $7 mm just on his spin rate without considering his very mediocre results, but I have to assume they think there’s a reason he can outpitch his historical numbers.    I’d love to know what that is.

As to diverting innings from our younger starters, I’m not too worried about that.  There’s still three open slots and that’s plenty, and if Lyles does poorly he can always move to the pen, which he’s done plenty of times in the past.   

In short, the move puzzles me but I’ll cross my fingers and hope for the best.  

[Sports Guy]

They paid 7M for what they hope to be 170 or more innings.  That’s it.

End of the day, there really is no more analysis needed.  He’s not good, the innings probably won’t be quality ones but if he takes the ball every 5th day and gets you into the 6th inning and beyond most nights, that has value to a team that needs it badly.