Trade Bait 2022

[ScGO's]

We're in June. Whose stock is up and down in the trade market. I paired a bunch together bc they share some similarities in their situation. I think Mancini, Lyles, and some relievers are traded for sure. Elias is in an interesting place with his roster and their performance, so it will be interesting to see what he chooses to do with the other names on here.

Trending up

Trey Mancini & Jordan Lyles - They are both free agents at the end of the year and the two most expensive players on the team at the moment. Both are most likely not coming back.  I don't know if the returns will be significant, but Elias has shown ways to be creative in finding value while saving money. Trey has a 133 OPS+ while his OPS is .802 and it would probably be significantly higher is he were hitting with last year's LF wall.  Lyles is doing what he paid to do, maybe even a tick higher. 4.06 FIP, K's per 9 is highest its been since 2019, and he's going deep into some games. Again, not sure what you'll get, but he'll help the back end of somebody's rotation.

Austin Hays & Anthony Santander - Both don't need to be rushed out of town, but next year, Hays will go to arbitration for the 1st time and Santander will earn a raise as well.  There's some OF coming up the pipeline and its not clear if Hays or Santander are in the plans for the next contending team when it comes to talent projection and economics. However, Elias is going to ask for a significant return because both of them are controllable for a few more seasons and performing well. Hays has a 139 OPS+ and a .826 OPS. Santander has a 118 OPS+ but seems to be ready to bust out at any time. If he got hot, his stock might fly high come July. Hays is more valuable at the moment when it comes to WAR (1.7 vs .8) but they are both starting to develop track records 

Jorge Lopez & Dillon Tate - Elias has done a good job creating value out of our bullpen pieces the past few seasons. Lopez has already reached arbitration and Tate joins him next year.  Elias seems to have an abundance of interesting milb arms coming and he's done a great job of finding value on the waiver wire too.  Lopez and Tate are expendable yet have some value bc they are under control for a few more seasons.  Lopez has settled in as the closer and is putting up nice numbers. Tate's CH has looked filthy at times and seems to be coming into his own with a 1.80 ERA and a .88 WHIP. Lopez's ERA+ is 345. If Elias trades Lopez for prospects that a great turnaround on a waiver pick up.

Rougned Odor & Ramon Urias - Not getting too excited about these two's trade value for different reasons. Odor's been on fire the last 2 weeks although his overall numbers are pretty rough still. However, if he were able to stay hot until July, there's a chance they could swing him. Probably be a Freddy Galvis return, but its something. As for Urias, he's been heating up too and had strong peripheral metrics all seasons, but I personally think they will not trade him as he is controllable and creates depth in the IF while the prospects develop. If he plays the whole seasons and finishes as an above average player, his real value could arise next season. However, he's 28 and if Elias believes someone on the farm can step in and be equal or greater than Urias, he may trade him if the interest is there.

Cionel Perez & Joey Krehbiel- No rush on either of these pitchers as they are controllable and still far away from arbitration, but both have been great waiver pick ups and if Elias feels he has players coming up that can replace them, he may choose to trade the soon to be 30 Krehbiel and 26 year old Perez if the return is right.

Keegan Aiken - I'm not championing for this as he's been a stud, but he's similar to Perez and Krehbiel being that Aiken is 27 and there is more youth coming up the pipeline. I don't think he does get traded, but Elias may have too many pieces soon and potentially use a few of these guys for "buy" moves.

 

Trending down

Cedric Mullins - 670 OPS, 94 OPS+. Hasn't been gawd awful, but with 3 more years of control, you want to sell high on Mullins. He still has value, and maybe he gets hot, but many folks probably wanted to wait and see on Mullins after last year's 30/30

Bryan Baker - The FIP is 2.95, but the ERA ain't going to help. He's in the same boat as Perez and Krehbiel as they were older high upside waiver pick ups that started hot. Baker is 28 and if his numbers start to trend towards his FIP, he could create the same value for himself as the other mentioned relievers, but again, no rush, just depends on what Elias wants to do with his reliever depth

[sportsfan8703]

Who are these bullpen arms you speak of?  Baumann and Kremer are the only two that come to mind. The pitching well is dry. 

[ScGO's]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Who are these bullpen arms you speak of?  Baumann and Kremer are the only two that come to mind. The pitching well is dry. 

Vespi, Baumann, Sedlock, Kremer, Uvila, Naughton at AAA, we'll see what peculates up from AA and A ball this year too.  Hall might end up being reliever long term too

[connja]

Should we be interested in Miguel Andujar?

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1533140630217662466?s=20&t=smBokSKCvKQXwTlEnrcXKA

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, connja said:

Should we be interested in Miguel Andujar?

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1533140630217662466?s=20&t=smBokSKCvKQXwTlEnrcXKA

Maybe as a replacement for Mancini. 

[Aristotelian]

I would say Jorge Lopez has done well enough in the closer role that he might be my top trade candidate in terms of both interest/value and Orioles willingness to trade. Resume has some similarities to Kendall Graveman, although I think the Mariners got ripped off in that deal. Unfortunately I am not seeing a lot of contenders with bullpen as a major weakness.

I would hold onto Tate for another year or two if I am the O's.

Looks like CF is where teams might get desperate. HOU, MIL, CLE, SF, lots of teams have issues in CF.  

I wonder if CLE might want to get Santander back? 

 

[wildcard]

45ish days away from the deadline I only see the O's trading one guy.   Mancini.    Someone will offer a decent deal for his offense.  Elias would love to get a AA starter in return is my guess.

Lyles?  Nope.  Who wants a starter with a 5.00 ERA.   Does that really help a contender?  Oh, he is available but I doubt that he moves.

Odor? Nope.  His offensive splits stink.  Yes, he hits a homer here and there but again I don't see him in demand by contenders.

I don't see the O's trading anyone else of value. But there is 45ish days to go and who really knows.  I didn't see the Sulser/Scott trade coming either.

[Sports Guy]

There are several possibilities.

[Aristotelian]

Braves just lost Albies. Would they be interested in Odor or Mateo? 

[OriolesMagic83]

I would expect the O's to get something nice for Lopez.  He's in line for a big raise this year with his closer role.  If Lopez can bring back an organization's top 10 prospect and a couple of lottery ticket, I think he's gone.  Mancini should be traded, imo.  There's zero chance this organization pays Mancini $10 million to be a DH next year.  Elias will get what he can.  If Lyles can turn it around before the deadline, the O's might even get something for him.  That seems laughable, but every day, a recognizable starter goes down.  A couple of days ago, 4 starters either went on the IL or had an arm injury that would keep them out for a large part of the season w/in 24 hours.  This has to be the worst year I can remember for arm injuries.  Obviously shortening spring training is a bad idea.

[Gentile4]

I just want Santander gone.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

I just want Santander gone.

Did he kick your dog?

[Gentile4]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Did he kick your dog?

In a manner of speaking. I'll just leave it at that. 

[jamalshw]

I think we all expect Mancini to be dealt and while it would be painful as a fan, it's necessary given his contract status. I could see a bullpen trade or two with Lopez the obvious leading candidate, but Tate is another option. 

I know Lyles isn't great, but innings can have some value. If he were to be traded it would only net a Cashner type return at best. I think you could move him and dump the money that's left on the deal, but I don't think it's worth it for the Orioles as they still need people to pitch the innings in August and September and with Grayson unlikely to be one, Hall having his lumps at AAA, and Bradish and Zimmermann struggling in the Majors right now, there aren't too many options. 

I could see them moving Santander and Mancini (though I'd prefer it just be one of the two), but I would hope that any deal they make comes with a sizeable return. Aside from maybe Mancini (who should have some value given how well he's hit), there isn't anyone that NEEDS to be dealt. 

[sportsfan8703]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Braves just lost Albies. Would they be interested in Odor or Mateo? 

They have Pat the Bat in AAA. 

If the Braves offered Ritchie Martin in return for Odor would you take it?  We can press that button whenever we want.