Ryan Mountcastle's Most Similar Batters List

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He was around .300 his whole minor league career. No reason to think that he couldn’t got .300 at this point. I know he struggled a bit this season. I’d say the luster and excitement will wear off fast if he’s a .240 ish batter. I think the we got Trumbo in  trade for Steve Clevinger.

I think his K rate is a bit too high.  He's going to have to have some luck with balls in play.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wonder, and please be aware that I'm not asking you to look into it, what types of peaks and valleys are the norm.  Is it unusual for someone with say an eight year career and an average wRC+ of 111 to have a 132 season?  My instinct is to say that type of career variance isn't unusual but I don't know.

I don’t know either.   Or how to find out.  

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wonder, and please be aware that I'm not asking you to look into it, what types of peaks and valleys are the norm.  Is it unusual for someone with say an eight year career and an average wRC+ of 111 to have a 132 season?  My instinct is to say that type of career variance isn't unusual but I don't know.

Of course you know I am constitutionally incapable of not having at least a cursory look to try to answer this question.

Pablo Sandoval, career wRC+ 110, best season (excluding 2020) 149

Marcus Semien, 109/138

J.T. Realmuto, 109/127

Wil Myers 110/129

Kyle Seager 111/134

David Peralta 112/137

Matt Joyce 112/136

Trevor Story 112/128

Charlie Blackmon 113/142

C.J. Cron 113/127

There's 10 guys close to 111 wRC+ in their careers, 5 of whom had a gap between career average and top year that was higher than Mancini's 21 points, 5 of whom were lower.   Nobody lower than a 14 point gap.    Of course, at this point we don't know if Mountcastle's 111 in 2021 was an average year for him, or closer to the high/low.   A few of these guys peaked early.   But in any event, a gap of 21 points between high and average isn't unusual.

[Roll Tide]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think his K rate is a bit too high.  He's going to have to have some luck with balls in play.

So his K rate in the minors was around 20% and in his first season. Last year it jumped to 30%. I’d expect some improvement this season and hopefully closer to his norm.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

So his K rate in the minors was around 20% and in his first season. Last year it jumped to 30%. I’d expect some improvement this season and hopefully closer to his norm.

Do you expect him to be as good in the majors as he was in the minors?

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you expect him to be as good in the majors as he was in the minors?

I think it’s reasonable to hope his K rate will come down, based on his MiL record and his 2020 performance.   Most players don’t experience an 8 point K rate jump between the majors and the minors.   Part of it may be that he’s trying to be more selective, hence getting into more 2-strike counts as opposed to making early contact.   However, he did strike out on a higher proportion of his two strike counts in 2021 compared to 2020.   

[Just Regular]

Beating your career wRC+ by 20-ish points in your career year if you make it that long feels about right.

B-Ref uses the cruder OPS+, and a spot check at about this level of hitter, 6 of 8 beat their current career mark by 20 or more at peak.

Kyle Seager 112  -  Yes 

Trevor Story 112 - No

Matt Joyce 111 - Yes

Wil Myers 111 - Yes

David Peralta 111 - Yes

JT Realmuto 111 - No

Pablo Sandoval 111 - Yes

Marcus Semien 110 - Yes   -   $175M of Yes!

(Now seeing Frobby's above, the hazards of leaving a half-typed post for morning!)

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Beating your career wRC+ by 20-ish points in your career year if you make it that long feels about right.

B-Ref uses the cruder OPS+, and a spot check at about this level of hitter, 6 of 8 beat their current career mark by 20 or more at peak.

Kyle Seager 112  -  Yes 

Trevor Story 112 - No

Matt Joyce 111 - Yes

Wil Myers 111 - Yes

David Peralta 111 - Yes

JT Realmuto 111 - No

Pablo Sandoval 111 - Yes

Marcus Semien 110 - Yes   -   $175M of Yes!

OPS+ and wRC+ track very closely.   I basically got my wRC+ list by looking at BB-ref’s active OPS+ list, since Fangraphs (which reports wRC+) doesn’t have an active leaders list.   

[Just Regular]

For me, Nick Castellanos remains someone I see looking at Mountcastle.   I am sure the tall lanky RHB with 37 letters across the back of the jersey is part of it, but also Florida prep bats with similar draft pedigree, defensive shenanigans, some young speed (Castellanos got a lot of triples early, which I think is Tiger Stadium affect similar to Mountcastle's lack thereof being in part a Camden Yards one).

Across the last four years, mature Castellanos has had O-Swing percentile performances of 11/7/13/5 as he's made his millions and exercised his opt-outs in search of more.   Seasonally, young Mountcastle has been 6/4 in 2020/2021, and I feel like his ability to restrain himself just a little bit could be the difference between a placeholder and a plus for a few years, and the opportunity for his career to have more longevity.   I've heard it said out-of-zone contact ages poorly.    Like young Adam Jones, he has the raw skill and youthful speed and strength to make it good anyway despite the flaws.

Castellanos did have bigger AVG/OBP gaps his first couple years, but Mountcastle's first two years outslugged his by a lot.   RBI's are a junk stat of course, but if Mountcastle's SLG surges like Castellanos' did after a couple years in the league and the Orioles offense grows like Elias is designing, I could see a run at a Tejada-like bunch of RBI's some year if he ever sits cleanup with Mullins, Cowser and Adley in front of him, and Hays/Kjerstad/Gunnar/Westburg lengthening the lineup respectably.   Just needs to make sure Coby Mayo doesn't take his cleanup spot before the peak Adley offenses.

A beyond Castellanos 1B RBI star if he can tighten up and growth mindset his way another 10% up MLB Swing Decision percentiles - Jose Abreu's last four seasons are 16/17/21/18.   The outright fear walks come a little more easily if you can level up past .500 SLG consistently.

 

[Moose Milligan]

On 12/11/2021 at 1:56 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

Funny. I was just posting that Mountcastle is very underrated on this board because he doesn’t have some .350 OBP at age 24. 

It'd be a lot cooler if he did.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It'd be a lot cooler if he did.

I’d be happy with a 330 OBP.  Still not great but good enough.

 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d be happy with a 330 OBP.  Still not great but good enough.

 

Yeah, I think .330 is about the ceiling for that guy.

[jamalshw]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, I think .330 is about the ceiling for that guy.

I think it's possible he gets to about .330 with some consistency in his peak, but likewise doubt it's much more. The only way he gets to .330 is if his average is near .280. He's got a 54-point gap between average and OBP in his short career, 54-points last year and 53 in the abbreviated 2020. What made him so good in that short stint in 2020 was his .333 average, but that was in large part to a .398 BABip compared to .297 last year. 

I'm skeptical his eye will ever improve to the point where he accumulates a large number of walks or his gap between average and OBP ever gets more than where it is now. He may get a few more walks given his power if teams opt to pitch around him at times, but I doubt it's enough to make much difference. 

Honestly, I'd take a season where he puts up a slash line of his career stats .270/.324/.487 (and 34 homers) if he can do that with some consistency for a few years. It's not great, but certainly it makes him a solid option.  

[NCRaven]

From MLBTradeRumors on Kyle Seager:

Seager, 34, began his career as a third-round pick of the Mariners in 2009, climbing through the minors to make his MLB debut in 2011, getting into 53 games that year. In 2012, he had a breakout year that saw him hit 20 home runs in 155 games, slashing .259/.316/.423. In combination with his solid third base defense, he was worth 3.8 fWAR that year.

Seager played 53 games in his debut season, a bit more than Mountcastle in 2020 (a COVID shortened season).  In his second season, Mountcastle put up .255/.309/.487 with 33 homeruns, which was quite a bit better, especially his slugging.  Now, Ryan will never provide "solid third base defense", as we know.  But if he plays solid first base defense and continues to build on his offensive output, I could see him having a very successful, Kyle Seager-like career.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, NCRaven said:

From MLBTradeRumors on Kyle Seager:

Seager, 34, began his career as a third-round pick of the Mariners in 2009, climbing through the minors to make his MLB debut in 2011, getting into 53 games that year. In 2012, he had a breakout year that saw him hit 20 home runs in 155 games, slashing .259/.316/.423. In combination with his solid third base defense, he was worth 3.8 fWAR that year.

Seager played 53 games in his debut season, a bit more than Mountcastle in 2020 (a COVID shortened season).  In his second season, Mountcastle put up .255/.309/.487 with 33 homeruns, which was quite a bit better, especially his slugging.  Now, Ryan will never provide "solid third base defense", as we know.  But if he plays solid first base defense and continues to build on his offensive output, I could see him having a very successful, Kyle Seager-like career.

If you mean he could put up a 112 OPS+ over 11 years, yes, I think that’s possible. If you mean he couid put up 36.9 rWAR over 11 years, I sincerely doubt it.   There’s a pretty big difference between the value of solid 3B defense and solid 1B defense, and it’s a lot easier to find 112 OPS+ hitters at 1B than 3B.