Ryan Mountcastle's Most Similar Batters List

[sportsfan8703]

How many better 1-3s are there in the MLB better than,

1.  Mullins S CF Age 27 on OD

2.  Rutschman S C Age 24 on OD

3.  Mountcastle R 1B Age 25 on OD

That’s a nice little top of the lineup and core right there. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Trumbo was a nice pickup for what he was originally intended to be a Chris Davis replacement at 1B. Instead the Orioles resigned both to high priced contracts that blew up in the organization's face. 

Trumbo is a big, non-athletic slugger who was never likely to age well and it made no sense to sign him, when the Orioles already had Davis under contract and Mancini as a rookie. 

I would give tens of dollars to a GoFundMe for Dan to write a memoir.

Dan wisely waited out Nelson Cruz until 2.14.2014, then had a poor 2015 DH in Paredes, etc.   Machado and Davis are stars.

12.2.2015 he jumps on Trumbo early in the offseason, a month and a half in front of 1.21.2016 Davis extension day.   I'll never know if 7/161 could have bought Machado's arb and early FA years, but I feel like in a split organization, Dan using the part of the power he had to get Trumbo was to gain leverage in the Davis negotiations, except that Boras blew right past it to ownership-level decisions, whatever the bleep prestige value is, and the salary structure of the end of the Machado/Jones/Davis teams got locked in.

By Trumbo's 1.20.2017 extension, he was the redundant slugger locking down 1B/DH with older unathletic guys, though he contributed heavily to 2016's last playoff appearance.    And I suppose Mancini in his mid-20's trying outfield for the first time in his life since he could really really hit.

 

 

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

My favorite comp for Ryan Mountcastle is a more athletic Mark Trumbo. They're both low-plate discipline high-power hitters. Trumbo had a career .249/.302/.459 line, while Mountcastle is at .270/.324/.492. Take out Mountcastle's hot 2020 and you get .255/.309/.487

In the minors, Trumbo hit .275/.330/.478. Mountcastle hit .295/.328/.471

I do think Mountcastle will have the better career when all is said and done, but he doesn't have his decline years dragging down his career averages yet either. Although Trumbo's best season was his age 30 campaign with us where he hit 47 homers and OPS'd .850

I hope Mountcastle is close to a .300 hitter. 

[waroriole]

19 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I hope Mountcastle is close to a .300 hitter. 

It’s possible if he can shorten the length of his cold steaks. He had some really bad stretches this year. If he’s a .300 hitter, his slash line looks a lot better with just a 7% walk rate. .300/.340/.520

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I don't think of Mountcastle as a bad defensive 1B. He is more a player in learning mode having only played a little over a full season at 1B in the minors and majors combined.   As a former SS I expect he will probably become a plus defender at 1B in the near future.

I didn't mean Mountcastle is a bad 1B defensively, but unless he hits more like a Freddie Freeman his trade value as a 1B will only be so much. It would have been nice with Mountcastle's athletic ability to see him develop into an outfielder. 

He's not one, but Mountcastle has upside as a 1B/DH especially if he can avoid the prolonged slumps suffered last year. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

53 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I would give tens of dollars to a GoFundMe for Dan to write a memoir.

Dan wisely waited out Nelson Cruz until 2.14.2014, then had a poor 2015 DH in Paredes, etc.   Machado and Davis are stars.

12.2.2015 he jumps on Trumbo early in the offseason, a month and a half in front of 1.21.2016 Davis extension day.   I'll never know if 7/161 could have bought Machado's arb and early FA years, but I feel like in a split organization, Dan using the part of the power he had to get Trumbo was to gain leverage in the Davis negotiations, except that Boras blew right past it to ownership-level decisions, whatever the bleep prestige value is, and the salary structure of the end of the Machado/Jones/Davis teams got locked in.

By Trumbo's 1.20.2017 extension, he was the redundant slugger locking down 1B/DH with older unathletic guys, though he contributed heavily to 2016's last playoff appearance.    And I suppose Mancini in his mid-20's trying outfield for the first time in his life since he could really really hit.

 

 

I've been hoping for a few years now that someone would write a behind the scenes look covering the 2010 to 2018 years of the Buck Showalter era. I'm surprised Brady Anderson hasn't written a book under a pen name titled Warehouse Confidential. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I've been hoping for a few years now that someone would write a behind the scenes look covering the 2010 to 2018 years of the Buck Showalter era. I'm surprised Brady Anderson hasn't written a book under a pen name titled Warehouse Confidential. 

I assume everyone that can tell a good story signed a NDA.  Given how litigious the Angelos family is I wouldn't expect a book.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Ripken said:

Where did Mountcastle rank last year?

It depends on what measure you are using.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I hope Mountcastle is close to a .300 hitter. 

 

42 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It’s possible if he can shorten the length of his cold steaks. He had some really bad stretches this year. If he’s a .300 hitter, his slash line looks a lot better with just a 7% walk rate. .300/.340/.520

That would be nice, but it would take what waroriole said Mountcastle had three months last year where he batted just below or just above the Mendoza line. It's almost impossible to be a .300 hitter if during half the season you're batting .200. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=mountry01&year=2021&t=b

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I assume everyone that can tell a good story signed a NDA.  Given how litigious the Angelos family is I wouldn't expect a book.

If members of the Trump administration who signed NDA's can write books, I have hard time believing the national security clearance of the Balimore Orioles organization has a higher threshhold.

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If members of the Trump administration who signed NDA's can write books, I have hard time believing the national security clearance of the Balimore Orioles organization has a higher threshhold.

We have a principle that people are entitled to know what goes on in our government except in limited circumstances.  NDAs are only enforceable to a very limited extent in that context.   Private businesses are not treated the same way.   

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I would give tens of dollars to a GoFundMe for Dan to write a memoir.

Dan wisely waited out Nelson Cruz until 2.14.2014, then had a poor 2015 DH in Paredes, etc.   Machado and Davis are stars.

12.2.2015 he jumps on Trumbo early in the offseason, a month and a half in front of 1.21.2016 Davis extension day.   I'll never know if 7/161 could have bought Machado's arb and early FA years, but I feel like in a split organization, Dan using the part of the power he had to get Trumbo was to gain leverage in the Davis negotiations, except that Boras blew right past it to ownership-level decisions, whatever the bleep prestige value is, and the salary structure of the end of the Machado/Jones/Davis teams got locked in.

By Trumbo's 1.20.2017 extension, he was the redundant slugger locking down 1B/DH with older unathletic guys, though he contributed heavily to 2016's last playoff appearance.    And I suppose Mancini in his mid-20's trying outfield for the first time in his life since he could really really hit.

 

 

Parades had a big 1st half in 2015. .800+ OPS. Then fell off a cliff. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

BTW I'm using wRC+ for these placements.

Good measure.  Mancini hit .291/.364/.535 in 2019 (.899 OPS) and that translated to 132 wRC+.  In his rookie year, at age 25, he had a 116 wRC+ (.293/.338/.488).   For his career, he's at 111 wRC+ (.271/.333/.472).

Mountcastle, at age 24, hit .255/.309/.487 (.796 OPS) and that translated to 111 wRC+.   Adding in the 35 games he played in 2020, his career numbers are .270/.324/.488, good for 112 wRC+.   

I think if the question is whether Mountcastle can have a better offensive career than Mancini, the answer is he probably will.   He's edging out Mancini 112 to 111 wRC+ on a career basis already, and his best years should be in front of him while Mancini is already slightly past the age where the average player peaks.  Cancer deprived Mancini of what should have been a prime year and may have weakened him in 2021.    Hopefully, Mountcastle will never experience anything like that.

If the question is whether Mountcastle will ever have as good a season as Mancini had in 2019, I'd guess probably not.  He might be able to get to an .899 OPS as Mancini did, but if he does it will probably be weighted more heavily on SLG and less on OBP than Mancini, and we know that OBP is underweighed in the OPS formula.   So, an .899 OPS for Mountcastle as an Oriole probably translates to something noticeably below 132 wRC+.

For me though, the first question (career value) is more important than who has the better peak year.   And I like Mountcastle's chances there.

Trumbo also has been mentioned here.   He had a career wRC+ of 106 and his best year was 125.   I expect Mountcastle to top those.

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Good measure.  Mancini hit .291/.364/.535 in 2019 (.899 OPS) and that translated to 132 wRC+.  In his rookie year, at age 25, he had a 116 wRC+ (.293/.338/.488).   For his career, he's at 111 wRC+ (.271/.333/.472).

Mountcastle, at age 24, hit .255/.309/.487 (.796 OPS) and that translated to 111 wRC+.   Adding in the 35 games he played in 2020, his career numbers are .270/.324/.488, good for 112 wRC+.   

I think if the question is whether Mountcastle can have a better offensive career than Mancini, the answer is he probably will.   He's edging out Mancini 112 to 111 wRC+ on a career basis already, and his best years should be in front of him while Mancini is already slightly past the age where the average player peaks.  Cancer deprived Mancini of what should have been a prime year and may have weakened him in 2021.    Hopefully, Mountcastle will never experience anything like that.

If the question is whether Mountcastle will ever have as good a season as Mancini had in 2019, I'd guess probably not.  He might be able to get to an .899 OPS as Mancini did, but if he does it will probably be weighted more heavily on SLG and less on OBP than Mancini, and we know that OBP is underweighed in the OPS formula.   So, an .899 OPS for Mountcastle as an Oriole probably translates to something noticeably below 132 wRC+.

For me though, the first question (career value) is more important than who has the better peak year.   And I like Mountcastle's chances there.

Trumbo also has been mentioned here.   He had a career wRC+ of 106 and his best year was 125.   I expect Mountcastle to top those.

 

I wonder, and please be aware that I'm not asking you to look into it, what types of peaks and valleys are the norm.  Is it unusual for someone with say an eight year career and an average wRC+ of 111 to have a 132 season?  My instinct is to say that type of career variance isn't unusual but I don't know.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

That would be nice, but it would take what waroriole said Mountcastle had three months last year where he batted just below or just above the Mendoza line. It's almost impossible to be a .300 hitter if during half the season you're batting .200. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=mountry01&year=2021&t=b

He was around .300 his whole minor league career. No reason to think that he couldn’t got .300 at this point. I know he struggled a bit this season. I’d say the luster and excitement will wear off fast if he’s a .240 ish batter. I think the we got Trumbo in  trade for Steve Clevinger.