How does Elias build a playoff quality pitching staff?

[wildcard]

How?  When? and Who in the current O's organization will be part of it?

[Sports Guy]

Luck

[connja]

Cross his fingers on G-Rod, Hall, and a couple others.  

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, connja said:

Cross his fingers on G-Rod, Hall, and a couple others.  

Plus Means, Bradish and Rom? in 2023?

[Bahama O's Fan]

I hope when we are ready, they will spend for one or two starters

[oriole]

My guess is hope that at least two of the upcoming prospects are major league caliber pitchers, two decent free agents, and an open fifth spot for a mixture of less talented but high floor type of low level free agents or prospects. Unless Means sticks around then Means would be that fifth guy…but if we’re not looking to be competitive until 2024 or 2025 then there’s no point in keeping Means around anyways so I think he’s traded. 

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, connja said:

Cross his fingers on G-Rod, Hall, and a couple others.  

Right..luck.

Here is what we know will never happen here…a big money contract for a pitcher.  And by big money, I mean 9 figures or some 40+M for 2 years, ala Scherzers deal (he signed for 3 but opt out after 2).  (I don’t even really want to do this but we should be able to handle the Stroman type deals)

This organization, unless it’s sold, will never do that.

So, they are going to have to get lucky with their own guys developing/staying healthy and smaller deals, MGon type guys.

But let’s be clear about something…to build a pitching staff that is a playoff staff always requires luck….some teams have a bigger margin for error but luck is always involved.

 

[Aristotelian]

Give the mid level guys a chance to fail this year as much as possible. You never know, one of Zimmerman, Lowther, Akin, Bradish, Baumann, Wells, and Kremer could be decent given the chance.

Hopefully Grayson and Hall continue to progress. 

Reassess at the trade deadline. Could trade Means, Hays, or Mullins for top 100 type pitching prospects.

If all other needs appear filled, spend the hoarded cash big on a pitcher for '23 or '24.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Give the mid level guys a chance to fail this year as much as possible. You never know, one of Zimmerman, Lowther, Akin, Bradish, Baumann, Wells, and Kremer could be decent given the chance.

Hopefully Grayson and Hall continue to progress. 

Reassess at the trade deadline. Could trade Means, Hays, or Mullins for top 100 type pitching prospects.

If all other needs appear filled, spend the hoarded cash big on a pitcher for '23 or '24.

I don't think they have any cash hoarded.

[LookinUp]

The actual answer to your question is to build a player development system that's as good as the Rays so we can put in 20 interchangeable arms at any point in a game and still be competitive enough to win games with a decent offense.

If anyone's thinking that we're going to have a rotation like the 2012/2013 Tigers, I think you're fooling yourself. We may grow a stud or two, may trade for a stud or two, but this is not a team that's going to win with four 200 IP guys and a couple of bullpen aces.

[wildcard]

Since Elias has not used high draft choices for pitchers it seems that spending of FA pitchers is part of his strategy. 

[Aglets]

Not a lot of Jordan Lyles fans on here I take it?

 

I think the honest answer is he will try and do what Tampa does as long as the CBA allows it.   If not he will try and do what Houston did.  They spent on arms at the opportune moment.  Verlander got a lot on a short term deal (after they traded for him).  They drafted and developed McCullers and Keuchel.  They signed Morton.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Luck

There’s a lot of truth to this.   Let’s just say we need to maximize the development of our existing pitchers and hope they stay healthy.   And then, we’ll have to invest some cash intelligently to upgrade what we have.   Our pitching pipeline is pretty thin once you get past a few guys.   

The 2021 playoff teams were very pitching heavy.   Only one playoff team had an ERA+ under 108 — the Cardinals, at 98.   The top 7 teams in ERA+ made the playoffs.  Pitching is always important, but more so than usual in 2021.
 

[Just Regular]

I feel that some year we'll pick the Gregg Olson/Garrett Crochet type guy to juice the Arb-phase Rutschman/Rodriguez rosters a bit before their years of team control end.

A good pitcher will be acquired in trade in July 2023, the 2024 offseason, or July 2024, and two out of three if we are lucky.

If we hold our talent and make a 2023 wildcard game (or 3-game series?), as long as he is healthy, I'm nearly agnostic on if DL Hall is a Five and Dive Game 3 starter, or Super Reliever heading up a Game 3 bullpen game behind Means and Rodriguez.    Obviously low odds all three of them will be healthy two full seasons from now, but also pretty sure there won't be a wildcard then if they aren't.

[Sports Guy]

Btw, I think the single most overlooked thing on this site, in terms of building the team, is the bullpen.  
 

This organization has got to figure out how to build a real bullpen again.  They did it before but it’s been largely few and far between for 25 years.