How does Elias build a playoff quality pitching staff?

[waroriole]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

No team is using its starters anywhere close to 70% of the time.  Oakland was the highest at 64%.   Tampa (who I think we’d agree is a good team) was at 52%.   Of course, that’s distorted by their frequent use of “openers.”   But still, most good teams today are around 60/40.   So, call it 1.5 times more important.   

It might be less than 1.5. It’s pretty easy to conclude that bullpen pitchers will be more involved in high leverage situations, making the innings of your bullpen’s best pitchers the most important on the team. 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think he's trying to accumulate talent.  I don't know how he's expecting to specifically leverage that talent.

It’s clear on how he’s expecting to leverage it.  We just don’t know if he will be able to.

 

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The average BP definitely has a higher WPA than the average rotation.  Even the better rotations will see the pens have a higher WPA.

Hmmmm.  Starters vs. bullpen WPA:

MIL 11.01/5.90

LAD 9.89/10.33

HOU 7.79/-0.47

CWS 7.52/0.18

SFG 6.86/9.72

Milwaukee’s rotation’s WPA was higher than any team’s bullpen WPA.   The Dodgers’ rotation’s WPA was higher than the second best bullpen WPA.

On the flip side of the equation, the worst rotation WPA (PIT -10.03) was worse than the worst bullpen WPA (WSH -9.89).    The Orioles starters had a -8.91 WPA, the bullpen -6.94.   

In an event, I think WPA can be a misused measure.   You lose a game 4-3, each run you allowed contributed equally to losing, even if the run you allowed in the 9th inning has a bigger WPA effect.    The bullpen only has high leverage innings if the starters have done their job.    

 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hmmmm.  Starters vs. bullpen WPA:

MIL 11.01/5.90

LAD 9.89/10.33

HOU 7.79/-0.47

CWS 7.52/0.18

SFG 6.86/9.72

Milwaukee’s rotation’s WPA was higher than any team’s bullpen WPA.   The Dodgers’ rotation’s WPA was higher than the second best bullpen WPA.

On the flip side of the equation, the worst rotation WPA (PIT -10.03) was worse than the worst bullpen WPA (WSH -9.89).    The Orioles starters had a -8.91 WPA, the bullpen -6.94.   

In an event, I think WPA can be a misused measure.   You lose a game 4-3, each run you allowed contributed equally to losing, even if the run you allowed in the 9th inning has a bigger WPA effect.    The bullpen only has high leverage innings if the starters have done their job.    

 

The bottom line is bullpens generally have a higher WPa than starting rotations, on average.

So, when you are going through this exercise, it’s not as simple as starters pitch more innings therefore they are more important.  
 

Let’s face it, most starters aren’t that good, especially going through a lineup 2-3 times. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The bottom line is bullpens generally have a higher WPa than starting rotations, on average.

So, when you are going through this exercise, it’s not as simple as starters pitch more innings therefore they are more important.  
 

Let’s face it, most starters aren’t that good, especially going through a lineup 2-3 times. 

Whether most starters are good is not relevant to whether they are important.   The fact that most are not that good is what makes the good ones very important.   

The problem with WPA is that it’s a hypothetical stat.   You allow a run in the first inning, the WPA is not that high because you have very little information about what will happen the remainder of the game.   But once you know the team lost 4-3, that run in the first inning becomes very important.   WPA measures its theoretical importance but not its actual importance in the game in which it was played.   
 

[Sports Guy]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Whether most starters are good is not relevant to whether they are important.   The fact that most are not that good is what makes the good ones very important.   

The problem with WPA is that it’s a hypothetical stat.   You allow a run in the first inning, the WPA is not that high because you have very little information about what will happen the remainder of the game.   But once you know the team lost 4-3, that run in the first inning becomes very important.   WPA measures its theoretical importance but not its actual importance in the game in which it was played.   
 

But there aren’t many good ones out there.

In the context of this conversation, sure it’s more important to get the better starters than the good bullpen.

But since most starters aren’t good, the bullpen is as important, if not moreso.

 

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But there aren’t many good ones out there.

In the context of this conversation, sure it’s more important to get the better starters than the good bullpen.

But since most starters aren’t good, the bullpen is as important, if not moreso.

 

I don’t want this quibble we are having to detract from your original point, with which I wholeheartedly agree, and said so: an underrated and under-discussed aspect of improving the pitching is improving the bullpen performance.   We are completely on the same page there.  

To take it a step further, it may be easier to gain wins by improving the bullpen than by improving the rotation.   Maybe that is what you are really trying to say.  It’s harder to find starters who we are willing to pay for who will have much impact, but often bullpens can be improved significantly at a pretty low cost.    

All that said, I still think that most of the time, a team with an above average rotation but an average bullpen will beat a team with an average rotation but an above average bullpen.  Right now, we are so far from average in both respects that it’s academic to argue which is more important.   

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t want this quibble we are having to detract from your original point, with which I wholeheartedly agree, and said so: an underrated and under-discussed aspect of improving the pitching is improving the bullpen performance.   We are completely on the same page there.  

To take it a step further, it may be easier to gain wins by improving the bullpen than by improving the rotation.   Maybe that is what you are really trying to say.  It’s harder to find starters who we are willing to pay for who will have much impact, but often bullpens can be improved significantly at a pretty low cost.    

All that said, I still think that most of the time, a team with an above average rotation but an average bullpen will beat a team with an average rotation but an above average bullpen.  Right now, we are so far from average in both respects that it’s academic to argue which is more important.   

I think your last point is true over 162 games…I don’t think it’s true in the playoffs.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think your last point is true over 162 games…I don’t think it’s true in the playoffs.

Playoff dynamics are very different.   You don’t need five starters and you can pull starters sooner without too much impact.

[Sports Guy]

And btw, those mid 2010s Os teams test that theory as well.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And btw, those mid 2010s Os teams test that theory as well.

Sure.   You can always find examples either way.   The 2014-15 Royals had a mediocre rotation but a dynamite shutdown bullpen.   

The 2014 O’s actually had a pretty good, underrated rotation.   They finished 5th in the AL in starter ERA, at 3.61.   The bullpen was even better, finishing 3rd at 3.10.    In 2012 (4.42/3.00) and 2016 (4.36/3.25) the difference was more pronounced, with the bullpen really carrying the pitching.   
 

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure.   You can always find examples either way.   The 2014-15 Royals had a mediocre rotation but a dynamite shutdown bullpen.   

The 2014 O’s actually had a pretty good, underrated rotation.   They finished 5th in the AL in starter ERA, at 3.61.   The bullpen was even better, finishing 3rd at 3.10.    In 2012 (4.42/3.00) and 2016 (4.36/3.25) the difference was more pronounced, with the bullpen really carrying the pitching.   
 

And I think those examples could start to become more prevalent if the game continues to trend in the direction it is.

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Playoff dynamics are very different.   You don’t need five starters and you can pull starters sooner without too much impact.

And the extra starters that aren’t used in that role in the playoffs are often used to bolster the bullpen in post season series.  Except Ubaldo.  Don’t bring in Ubaldo.

[Chuck A]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

And the extra starters that aren’t used in that role in the playoffs are often used to bolster the bullpen in post season series.  Except Ubaldo.  Don’t bring in Ubaldo.

But, he was really good before coming to Baltimore.  /end sarcasm

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

And I think those examples could start to become more prevalent if the game continues to trend in the direction it is.

Seems pretty likely.