ZiPS projects the 2022 O’s to go 64-98

[Frobby]

…assuming a full season and current roster construction.   After briefly breaking down the other four teams in the AL East, Dave Szymborski comments: 

“The Orioles exist. Their goal this year is to complete 162 games and win some of them.”

ZiPS has the rest of the division over .500, and no AL team besides the O’s winning fewer than 73 games.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-american-league-edition/

[Just Regular]

This reminded me to jog to Clay Davenport's site, and his are up too.

http://www.claydavenport.com/projections/BAL.shtml

He gives 68 wins, and also guesses at individualized playing time allocations.

Couple that jumped out to me at first glance, catcher spread of Adley 97, Nottingham 49, Bemboom 16, and Grayson generating about 80% of John Means' WAR in about 50% of the innings.

I imagine they will be split and dosed out, but still some small hopes they go for the PR bonanza of joint Adley/Grayson promotion a short way in.

ZiPS wildcard percentage was NOT 0.0%!!

[jabba72]

8 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

This reminded me to jog to Clay Davenport's site, and his are up too.

http://www.claydavenport.com/projections/BAL.shtml

He gives 68 wins, and also guesses at individualized playing time allocations.

Couple that jumped out to me at first glance, catcher spread of Adley 97, Nottingham 49, Bemboom 16, and Grayson generating about 80% of John Means' WAR in about 50% of the innings.

I imagine they will be split and dosed out, but still some small hopes they go for the PR bonanza of joint Adley/Grayson promotion a short way in.

ZiPS wildcard percentage was NOT 0.0%!!

I like his McKenna and Mateo predictions both finishing with an OPS over .700, but with limited PA's. Predicts Hall and GROD both finish with ERA's between 4.16 and  4.27. Hall's in 5 starts GROD in 15, but both lower than Means 4.79. Those are the only three starters projected to finish with ERA's anywhere under 5.00. Adley with a .785 OPS. Hays .797. 

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

This reminded me to jog to Clay Davenport's site, and his are up too.

http://www.claydavenport.com/projections/BAL.shtml

He gives 68 wins, and also guesses at individualized playing time allocations.

Couple that jumped out to me at first glance, catcher spread of Adley 97, Nottingham 49, Bemboom 16, and Grayson generating about 80% of John Means' WAR in about 50% of the innings.

I imagine they will be split and dosed out, but still some small hopes they go for the PR bonanza of joint Adley/Grayson promotion a short way in.

ZiPS wildcard percentage was NOT 0.0%!!

I guess it’s about time for me to assemble my annual projections spreadsheet.   A couple of things about Davenport’s list:

- No debut for Kyle Stowers.   
-  240 at bats for Rylan Bannon, at a respectable .721 OPS.

-  DL Hall getting in 5 starts 

 

 

[Just Regular]

His Adley 2.8 WAR forecast (with 60% of the starts) only beaten by these other catchers.

CWS Grandal - 4.2 WAR in 80% of team Games Played (some 1B/DH for that bat)

KCR Perez - 3.2 WAR in 80%, so "worse" on a WAR/650-type scale.

PHI Realmuto - 3.1 WAR in 80%, ibid

LAD Smith - 4.7 WAR in 70%, the young lion to Grandal's old lion

[Philip]

Symborski can bite my rosy red behind.

[Aristotelian]

I'd say that's pretty optimistic. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'd say that's pretty optimistic. 

One thing about the ZiPS methodology is it tends to pack the W-L records more tightly than will happen in reality.   That’s what happens when you play a hypothetical season a million times and take the average outcome.   In reality, some teams will have top 10% outcomes and others will have bottom 10% outcomes.

Saying that, I think 64 is a reasonable guess at this point.   Let’s see what personnel moves are made after the lockout ends before drilling down too hard though.   

[Sports Guy]

Any guess in the range of 57-65 seems reasonable to me.

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

One thing about the ZiPS methodology is it tends to pack the W-L records more tightly than will happen in reality.   That’s what happens when you play a hypothetical season a million times and take the average outcome.   In reality, some teams will have top 10% outcomes and others will have bottom 10% outcomes.

Saying that, I think 64 is a reasonable guess at this point.   Let’s see what personnel moves are made after the lockout ends before drilling down too hard though.   

Aren't they assuming the current roster? My guess would also change if there is a major addition. With just Lyles, Odor, and Rutschman going from 52 to 64 does seem optimistic to me. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Any guess in the range of 57-65 seems reasonable to me.

 

That's a decent range but if we're on the low end of that I'd be annoyed.  I mean, it all really depends on how the prospects perform this year but I think a good goal should be not to lose 100 games this year.  

[crowmst3k!]

I'll buy 64 wins.  

If Means is solid, and a couple of the other starting pitchers from last year go from putrid to decent, it could tick a bit higher.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

That's a decent range but if we're on the low end of that I'd be annoyed.  I mean, it all really depends on how the prospects perform this year but I think a good goal should be not to lose 100 games this year.  

Yea, it’s a big range but an 8 game swing is really about luck.  As crappy as the attempt to field a real product has been, I think they have had bad luck and have fielded teams that should have won more games than they have.

I agree with you about the prospects though.  When these guys come up and how much they can improve and develop is everything for this team.

 

[Pickles]

I know it's arbitrary, and it's a laughably low bar, but I don't want to lose 100 games this year.

Winning 65 games might not mean the team was successful, a lot would depend on how those games are won and lost, but if they lose over 100 games this upcoming year that means I would almost certainly classify that as a disappointment.

[spiritof66]

Look at the strength throughout the rest of the division. It will be hard to avoid losing a lot of games to those teams. 

Unless there's a substantial uptick in the pitching, from within the system or outside it (I've almost given up hope for the latter, but not quite), I think 64 is about the most optimistic reasonable prediction. More like 60-65, IMO.