Jordan Lyles 2022

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would not assume Hall is in the rotation to start the year.  50/50.

We already know they aren't getting 2 ELITE starting pitchers.   Most likely, by your definition of elite, they aren't getting even one.   That's a pretty easy call on my part.   Two?   No frickin way!!!!!    One?   I doubt it very much.

They might get one or two guys who is considered  solid 3's.   I haven't really looked at the FA class that closely.

 

 

I said very good to elite…not only elite.  I think they definitely can add that.  I think one will be a trade.

Hall is in the rotation to start the year unless he is hurt or looks awful in ST, which is what I said.

But if neither of those is the case, he will be in the rotation. Now, if he does look crappy in ST or is he hurt, the Os have the guys they can use until gets right, if he ever does.

But you don’t bring Lyles back to be a DL Hall insurance policy.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Number5]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a bs cliche.

 

Good Lord willing, I just want to do what I can to help the ball club.

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would not assume Hall is in the rotation to start the year.  50/50.

We already know they aren't getting 2 ELITE starting pitchers.   Most likely, by your definition of elite, they aren't getting even one.   That's a pretty easy call on my part.   Two?   No frickin way!!!!!    One?   I doubt it very much.

They might get one or two guys who are considered  solid 3's.   I haven't really looked at the FA class that closely.

 

 

Spot on. It’s really wishful thinking to think that Lyles won’t be retained because we’re bringing in such better players. Realistically, I see Lyles 100% back, and we will see how the season, and rotation, plays out, then evaluate if we need to buy cheap pitching with prospects come trade deadline time. 
 

A 1 yr 9 million deal to Lyles is a lock. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Spot on. It’s really wishful thinking to think that Lyles won’t be retained because we’re bringing in such better players. Realistically, I see Lyles 100% back, and we will see how the season, and rotation, plays out, then evaluate if we need to buy cheap pitching with prospects come trade deadline time. 
 

A 1 yr 9 million deal to Lyles is a lock. 

I am not advocating that he's retained.   Of course, everyone would love to see two #1 pitchers signed and Wells, Grayson, and Hall lined up behind them with Voth and Bradish in the bullpen.   Sounds great.   It just isn't going to happen.

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, foxfield said:

@Sports Guy says let him walk.  I don't really disagree, but I am not so sure.  For me, it could go either way. I am of the opinion that to take a step forward next year the Orioles need to add 2 quality SP.  I believe the easiest way would be to trade for one and sign one, and my target would be a #1 or two #2s.  If you let Lyles walk you need a third guy.  If you keep him you have the same guy you have now...but not as some anchor, but as a guy at the back of your rotation.  I'd be fine with that....but if you let him go....then I think you need three new pitchers.

And I know we have guys coming....Means, Grayson, Hall etc.  You can never and I mean never, have too much pitching.

I would keep Lyles but you are assuming that Wells and none of the other current guys are worthy. I think Kremer develops for sure and what would you do with Watkins, Voth, and Bradish?

[Just Regular]

The financials are 1 + 10, not 2 + 9 on the marginal outlay front for 2023 Lyles.    If any of the other 29 Clubs wanted him for 1/11, I believe Elias could save the Organization 500k by trading him and reducing the Sunk Cost to the trade assignment bonus.     I believe 2023 Lyles will again be closer to 7 than 11.

1 year/$7M (2022), plus 2023 club option

• signed by Baltimore as a free agent 12/1/21
• $500,000 signing bonus
• 22:$5.5M, 23:$11M signing bonus ($1M buyout)
• $500,000 assignment bonus with each trade

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

The person arguing so vehemently against bringing him back also believes DL Hall will be a decent major league starter.

I don't know that I think SG is actually vehemently against Lyles returning....I think he simply wants to have better pitching.  

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Show me where I have said anything about my expectations of Hall as a ML starter. 

 

But then this was refuted 13 minutes later with.....

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Grayson, Wells and Hall, assuming no injuries, awful performance or trades, will be in the rotation for OD next year.

You then have Bradish, Kremer, ZImmerman and Povich as guys that are immediate or potentially close to immediate help.  Plus, you could have guys like Watkins and Voth as fill in guys.

The question isn’t will we have the depth.  The question is will they go out and get 2 very good to elite starting pitchers this offseason?

If they do, there is no need for Lyles.  If you don’t or you are only getting 1 guy, you probably have room for Lyles.  

 

SG, 

We all trip ourselves with words.  I will agree with the you can have too much pitching definition if it means accepting that by too much you mean lot's of pitching that is not good, which is another way of saying you don't have enough good pitching.  But setting aside words...I don't even think I am disagreeing with you.  Other than you believe the Orioles would be fine with 2 elite arms and losing Lyles.  I think I am too, but I am not as eager to move on.

Means cannot be counted on next year...but hopefully he returns around the second half.  

Grayson should certainly be up and should be better than Lyles....but is also likely to be hitting a wall late in the season and possibly running out of innings...and still healthy.

Wells should be able to slot in above where Lyles is this year.  I agree completely.  

Hall, I believe will be fine, but folks thought the same about Matusz.   He will need time.

Again, if the Orioles were to go out and get two legit arms.  I am not suggesting, but say trade for Lopez and sign Verlander.   I would still argue that Lyles at $10M net is at least worth considering as insurance.   Elite arms have to go on IL sometimes too.  See:  Dodgers.

Personally, I think a better question is would Lyles sign a 2 yr extension so that he was at 7M or 8M for each of two years.  Of course, if the Orioles really and truly are significantly increasing payroll next year, I will be so excited, I will accept whatever they do with Lyles.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I don't know that I think SG is actually vehemently against Lyles returning....I think he simply wants to have better pitching.  

But then this was refuted 13 minutes later with.....

 

SG, 

We all trip ourselves with words.  I will agree with the you can have too much pitching definition if it means accepting that by too much you mean lot's of pitching that is not good, which is another way of saying you don't have enough good pitching.  But setting aside words...I don't even think I am disagreeing with you.  Other than you believe the Orioles would be fine with 2 elite arms and losing Lyles.  I think I am too, but I am not as eager to move on.

Means cannot be counted on next year...but hopefully he returns around the second half.  

Grayson should certainly be up and should be better than Lyles....but is also likely to be hitting a wall late in the season and possibly running out of innings...and still healthy.

Wells should be able to slot in above where Lyles is this year.  I agree completely.  

Hall, I believe will be fine, but folks thought the same about Matusz.   He will need time.

Again, if the Orioles were to go out and get two legit arms.  I am not suggesting, but say trade for Lopez and sign Verlander.   I would still argue that Lyles at $10M net is at least worth considering as insurance.   Elite arms have to go on IL sometimes too.  See:  Dodgers.

Personally, I think a better question is would Lyles sign a 2 yr extension so that he was at 7M or 8M for each of two years.  Of course, if the Orioles really and truly are significantly increasing payroll next year, I will be so excited, I will accept whatever they do with Lyles.  

You only have so many resources.  A 10M insurance policy isn’t a great way to use those resources. 
 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I said very good to elite…not only elite.  I think they definitely can add that.  I think one will be a trade.

Hall is in the rotation to start the year unless he is hurt or looks awful in ST, which is what I said.

But if neither of those is the case, he will be in the rotation. Now, if he does look crappy in ST or is he hurt, the Os have the guys they can use until gets right, if he ever does.

But you don’t bring Lyles back to be a DL Hall insurance policy.

Hall may compete and win a spot in the rotation, but I don’t think you go into next season counting on him to do that.   He needs to earn it.   

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hall may compete and win a spot in the rotation, but I don’t think you go into next season counting on him to do that.   He needs to earn it.   

A lot of guys get playing time that they don't "earn" and lots of guys "earn" playing time and don't get it.

In the real world it isn't simply if you earned something or not.

Especially when one person is the sole judge on if you "earned" it.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hall may compete and win a spot in the rotation, but I don’t think you go into next season counting on him to do that.   He needs to earn it.   

He may have to earn it but it’s obvious he had the leg up on the competition.

[wildcard]

5 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

What about a sign and trade? The $2M is a sunk cost for us, so we are looking at $9M. I would think someone would recognize the value there and take on the contract plus maybe giving us something Elias might find interesting. 

Please explain why you think Lyles' buyout for 2023 is 2M.  I don't see any one  than 1M.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A lot of guys get playing time that they don't "earn" and lots of guys "earn" playing time and don't get it.

In the real world it isn't simply if you earned something or not.

Especially when one person is the sole judge on if you "earned" it.

Hmmm.  You mean baseball isn't the real world?   

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Please explain why you think Lyles' buyout for 2023 is 2M.  I don't see any one  than 1M.

Never mind, I have no idea where I got that from. I'm sure you are correct. I do think sign and trade is a viable option for him. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He may have to earn it but it’s obvious he had the leg up on the competition.

It’s not that obvious to me, depending who the competition is.  He’s very talented but it’s not clear he’s ready.