Jordan Lyles 2022

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or, don't pick up the option, pay him his 1M and then resign him for the 5M he's actually worth?

Sure, if that is what his market value is.  Ideally I would like to see a couple better starters signed if possible.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RVAOsFan said:

Sure, if that is what his market value is.  Ideally I would like to see a couple better starters signed if possible.

Should be super easy to get pitchers to pitch at the new pitcher friendly OPACY right?  They should be paying the O's for the privilege of pitching in front of that LF wall.

[luismatos4prez]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or, don't pick up the option, pay him his 1M and then resign him for the 5M he's actually worth?

That seems unrealistic. If he was willing to pitch here for 5M, he would already be pitching here for 5M.

[jamalshw]

I am leaning towards not trading Lyles given the innings we need. He's not going to yield more than a lottery ticket and him eating the innings is probably more valuable than that. I'm also not opposed to picking up the option if the market dictates his value around that level. 

For next year, we have Tyler Wells who appears to be a legit starting option. The jury is still out on Dean Kremer, but my fingers are crossed. Assuming they can be 2 of the 5 starters and assuming Grayson Rodriguez takes one of the other spots, that leaves us with a pair of open rotation spots plus the need for some depth. Yes, there's Bradish (and we will see what he looks like when he comes off the IL), Means (when he's available midseason), and Hall as an option, but the rotation is going to need some veteran leadership as well and some certainty. Lyles provides a bit of certainty at least as a #5 type that can eat innings. Given the question marks (in terms of effectiveness and/or health/innings limits) for most of the rotation next year a guy like Lyles would be helpful. 

Of course, I would like to bring him back (or sign another inning eating vet like him) in ADDITION to a top-end starter. I don't expect the Orioles to sign Musgrove, but imagine the lineup with Henderson, Westburg, and Stowers along with the bullpen we've seen so far and a rotation of Musgrove, Grayson, Wells, Hall and Lyles along with Bradish and Kremer for depth and Means as a midseason addition and added depth (as we know someone will be out by then). That's a team that can at least make some noise. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

That seems unrealistic. If he was willing to pitch here for 5M, he would already be pitching here for 5M.

I think they overpaid last year.

Maybe his bump in metrics toward the end of the 2021 season caused it?

I don't think he does better than 1/5 in a normal offseason.

[interloper]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

I am leaning towards not trading Lyles given the innings we need. He's not going to yield more than a lottery ticket and him eating the innings is probably more valuable than that. I'm also not opposed to picking up the option if the market dictates his value around that level. 

For next year, we have Tyler Wells who appears to be a legit starting option. The jury is still out on Dean Kremer, but my fingers are crossed. Assuming they can be 2 of the 5 starters and assuming Grayson Rodriguez takes one of the other spots, that leaves us with a pair of open rotation spots plus the need for some depth. Yes, there's Bradish (and we will see what he looks like when he comes off the IL), Means (when he's available midseason), and Hall as an option, but the rotation is going to need some veteran leadership as well and some certainty. Lyles provides a bit of certainty at least as a #5 type that can eat innings. Given the question marks (in terms of effectiveness and/or health/innings limits) for most of the rotation next year a guy like Lyles would be helpful. 

Of course, I would like to bring him back (or sign another inning eating vet like him) in ADDITION to a top-end starter. I don't expect the Orioles to sign Musgrove, but imagine the lineup with Henderson, Westburg, and Stowers along with the bullpen we've seen so far and a rotation of Musgrove, Grayson, Wells, Hall and Lyles along with Bradish and Kremer for depth and Means as a midseason addition and added depth (as we know someone will be out by then). That's a team that can at least make some noise. 

Yeah Lyles ain't going anywhere. Without Grayson filling a rotation spot, there's just no way to remove Lyles. He's a retaining wall. 

[Frobby]

Lyles had his last start of the first half of the season, and it was one of his best, 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K’s.    

So let’s take stock after half a season.  Lyles has made all 16 of his starts.   He’s thrown 92 innings, on pace for 184 for a full season.  His ERA is a pedestrian 4.70 and BB-ref has him at -0.1 rWAR, but I say that’s nonsense.  Fangraphs has him at 1.4 fWAR and while that might be a slight overstatement, it feels a lot closer to the truth.   This guy has done exactly what Elias hoped he’d do.   Just hope he keeps doing it.  
 

[Roll Tide]

On 6/29/2022 at 11:49 AM, jamalshw said:

I am leaning towards not trading Lyles given the innings we need. He's not going to yield more than a lottery ticket and him eating the innings is probably more valuable than that. I'm also not opposed to picking up the option if the market dictates his value around that level. 

For next year, we have Tyler Wells who appears to be a legit starting option. The jury is still out on Dean Kremer, but my fingers are crossed. Assuming they can be 2 of the 5 starters and assuming Grayson Rodriguez takes one of the other spots, that leaves us with a pair of open rotation spots plus the need for some depth. Yes, there's Bradish (and we will see what he looks like when he comes off the IL), Means (when he's available midseason), and Hall as an option, but the rotation is going to need some veteran leadership as well and some certainty. Lyles provides a bit of certainty at least as a #5 type that can eat innings. Given the question marks (in terms of effectiveness and/or health/innings limits) for most of the rotation next year a guy like Lyles would be helpful. 

Of course, I would like to bring him back (or sign another inning eating vet like him) in ADDITION to a top-end starter. I don't expect the Orioles to sign Musgrove, but imagine the lineup with Henderson, Westburg, and Stowers along with the bullpen we've seen so far and a rotation of Musgrove, Grayson, Wells, Hall and Lyles along with Bradish and Kremer for depth and Means as a midseason addition and added depth (as we know someone will be out by then). That's a team that can at least make some noise. 

 I still think Bradish can make the adjustment as well.

[Roll Tide]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Lyles had his last start of the first half of the season, and it was one of his best, 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K’s.    

So let’s take stock after half a season.  Lyles has made all 16 of his starts.   He’s thrown 92 innings, on pace for 184 for a full season.  His ERA is a pedestrian 4.70 and BB-ref has him at -0.1 rWAR, but I say that’s nonsense.  Fangraphs has him at 1.4 fWAR and while that might be a slight overstatement, it feels a lot closer to the truth.   This guy has done exactly what Elias hoped he’d do.   Just hope he keeps doing it.  
 

Yeah …I mean you could be pretty happy if he was you 4ish starter.

[wildcard]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Lyles had his last start of the first half of the season, and it was one of his best, 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K’s.    

So let’s take stock after half a season.  Lyles has made all 16 of his starts.   He’s thrown 92 innings, on pace for 184 for a full season.  His ERA is a pedestrian 4.70 and BB-ref has him at -0.1 rWAR, but I say that’s nonsense.  Fangraphs has him at 1.4 fWAR and while that might be a slight overstatement, it feels a lot closer to the truth.   This guy has done exactly what Elias hoped he’d do.   Just hope he keeps doing it.  
 

Lyles' 2nd half will be an audition to see if he is worth picking up his 11M option.   If he gets his ERA down to 4.00 the answer is yes.  If his ERA is 5.00 the answer is no.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Lyles' 2nd half will be an audition to see if he is worth picking up his 11M option.   If he gets his ERA down to 4.00 the answer is yes.  If his ERA is 5.00 the answer is no.

I doubt he gets his ERA down to 4.00.   His ERA+ right now is 85, identical to last year.  His career ERA+ is 82.   He’d have to throw to approximately a 3.30 ERA the rest of the year to end up at 4.00.  Not very likely at all.   

For me he’s been a solid value at $7 mm, but $11 mm is awfully pricey.  I’d rather go out and get someone (or two someones) who are a bit more pricey but capable of being better than league average.

 

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I doubt he gets his ERA down to 4.00.   His ERA+ right now is 85, identical to last year.  His career ERA+ is 82.   He’d have to throw to approximately a 3.30 ERA the rest of the year to end up at 4.00.  Not very likely at all.   

For me he’s been a solid value at $7 mm, but $11 mm is awfully pricey.  I’d rather go out and get someone (or two someones) who are a bit more pricey but capable of being better than league average.

 

He had a 4.15 ERA in 2019.  He's capable of doing it.  He has a very good defense behind him and two good defensive catchers.   

[Just Regular]

With two off days next week before the All-Star break, I hope they do Jordan Lyles a solid and let him pitch Thursday-Tuesday-Sunday, as long as he looks okay.

Then also let him leadoff the 2nd Half Friday night and he should be back in the League IP mix after that.

It'd only involve skipping some Watkins and Voth games.

WIth the short slate and tough Tampa pitching, this is Adley's week if he's going to make that All-Star push.

[Frobby]

Lyles is getting it done.  Started a little shaky tonight but settled in and allowed only 2 runs in 7 innings on a tidy 101 pitches.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Lyles is getting it done.  Started a little shaky tonight but settled in and allowed only 2 runs in 7 innings on a tidy 101 pitches.  

FWIW that’s a 2.57 ERA, below the 3.3 mark he’d have to maintain to get under 4 on the season.