Jordan Lyles 2022

[LA2]

On 8/16/2022 at 3:57 PM, RZNJ said:

I like what Voth has done but you hold your breath, at least I do, hoping he can get through 5 innings.   He's perfect as a pitcher you only EXPECT 3 good inings from.   4 maybe.  Anything more than that seems like a hope and a prayer.

Since this exchange questioning Voth's durability, he has turned in starts of 6, 5.67, and 6 innings, allowing only 0, 2, and 1 earned runs respectively. Only 10 hits and 1 homer over 17.67 innings. ERA and WHIP with the Orioles: 2.72 and 1.14 over 59.67 innings. He looks unflappable and methodical on the mound despite very weak run support. I'm penciling him into the 2023 rotation.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, LA2 said:

Since this exchange questioning Voth's durability, he has turned in starts of 6, 5.67, and 6 innings, allowing only 0, 2, and 1 earned runs respectively. Only 10 hits and 1 homer over 17.67 innings. ERA and WHIP with the Orioles: 2.72 and 1.14 over 59.67 innings. He looks unflappable and methodical on the mound despite very weak run support. I'm penciling him into the 2023 rotation.

Yeah. He's won me over as well.  I don't see how he's not part of the rotation moving forward. 

[Frobby]

Lyles has a 2.72 ERA over his last 7 starts, despite a couple of shaky ones back-to-back in mid-August.  He’s really done a nice job for us and set a good example for how to navigate through games.  I’d say that to date, his performance is in the top 10-20% of the outcomes I could have envisioned for him. 

[ScGO's]

Watkins is the starter I'm nervous about. I think he might be the guy to go 3-5 innings with then bring in an akin, hall or wells, or start wells and then go to Watkins, Aiken, or Hall after his 3-5 IP. 

[Fiver6565]

I'm at the point where I now believe they will exercise the option for 2023 for Lyles.  In addition to being the horse they needed innings-wise, I do think he's had an influence on the younger/inexperienced fellow starters as well.  A bit of a mentor in a similar way Chirinos has been for some of the position players.  I think that has value and he can continue to fill a need next year regardless of who comes up and/or gets signed.

[bpilktree]

Lyles has pitched well enough to pick up his option year but the question is, is there room for him in the rotation next year.  we have Wells, GRod, Kremer, Bradish and Voth currently as better options then Lyles going into next year.  I am also assuming they either sign a top of the rotation guy or make a trade for a younger controllable starter to be into the rotation.  So you have 6 guys most likely ahead of him and Means ready hopefully by all star break.  I could see them picking up the option as a back up plan in case they don't get a starter in the off season and if they do move him in a trade.   

[LA2]

6 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Lyles has pitched well enough to pick up his option year but the question is, is there room for him in the rotation next year.  we have Wells, GRod, Kremer, Bradish and Voth currently as better options then Lyles going into next year.  I am also assuming they either sign a top of the rotation guy or make a trade for a younger controllable starter to be into the rotation.  So you have 6 guys most likely ahead of him and Means ready hopefully by all star break.  I could see them picking up the option as a back up plan in case they don't get a starter in the off season and if they do move him in a trade.   

If the option salary for 2023 were about the same as it is for this year ($6 million), it's a no-brainer to pick it up: you can never have enough good starting pitching and there are a lot of question marks still in your list of 5-6 better pitchers. But the option is for $11 million and so it becomes a difficult question that can't be even framed until the season is over. Under current team ownership, Elias might need that money for other signings.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, LA2 said:

If the option salary for 2023 were about the same as it is for this year ($6 million), it's a no-brainer to pick it up: you can never have enough good starting pitching and there are a lot of question marks still in your list of 5-6 better pitchers. But the option is for $11 million and so it becomes a difficult question that can't be even framed until the season is over. Under current team ownership, Elias might need that money for other signings.

Minor point: there’s a $1 mm buyout, so the next cost of exercising the option vs. declining it is $10 mm, not $11 mm.

I think it’s a close call and it depends on how much you believe in some of the younger starters.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

Keep him. If the rotation gets full, he's a long man in the pen.

[Just Regular]

In the first four games of 2023, who out of Kremer, Bradish, Wells or Grayson would you prefer Lyles to?    I feel DL Hall will have a starter's spring and hope he shows enough to be with the Orioles in April.

I don't even throw Voth in that group yet, despite his good outcomes starting to pile up a little bit.

Even before we sign and/or trade for a better on paper option or options.

He's contributing...back on the league Innings Pitched leaderboard after the McClanahan and Verlander race cars have fallen off the track:

Innings Pitched

1.	Cole • NYY	164.2
2.	Valdez • HOU	164.0
3.	Perez • TEX	159.0
4.	Manoah • TOR	155.2
	Ray • SEA	155.2
6.	McKenzie • CLE	152.2
7.	Lyles • BAL	152.1

 

[OriolesMagic83]

There's no such thing as too much starting pitching should be just as big a board mantra as there's no such thing as a pitching prospect.  The Mets and Dodgers were obviously hugely helped this year by having "too much" starting pitching.  The Yankees learned the hard way by trading away their 5th starter Montgomery only to have their planned #2 starter Montas struggle after his acquisition.  Ideally, the O's would come out of spring training in 2023 with 7 potential starters.  At this point, Grayson and Hall can't be depended on in the starting rotation.  Grayson should be given every chance to earn a spot, but you can't depend on him.  Likely one of Voth, Bradish or Kremer will revert to their old ways next year and struggle.  I'm leaning towards the O's should pick up Lyles' option.  I can't believe that would limit the O's from signing a free agent pitcher, although there have been signs the O's might be more financially limited than in the past.  Barring a total collapse by Lyles, a #4 starter on a 1 year affordable deal is always a valuable commodity.  Some team that plans to contend will come out of spring training with a couple of injured starters and another starter that can't get anyone out.  I don't think the O's will get much for Lyles, maybe a organizational prospect in the 20's and pick up a small part of his salary. 

[Sports Guy]

Hopefully he is pitching well enough to where you can trade him.

[Bahama O's Fan]

So...how bout that performance?

[BRobinsonfan]

29 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

So...how bout that performance?

That was pretty to watch.  I like that he works fast, and I like that he can eat innings.   There's a ton of potential among the young arms for next years rotation... but it would nice to have Lyles back to provide some stability and eat some innings.  He's nothing spectacular (although tonight he was) but we've spent a lot more to get a lot worse (in the past).   

 

[Frobby]

No complete game love for Lyles?

OK, it’s only the Tigers, but after losing two straight from them, I’ll take it.  And since we are playing the next 14 days in a row, a game where the bullpen had the night off was extremely welcome.  

Lyles said something interesting after the game.  He was asked if he was enjoying being a mentor on this team.  He replied that he really didn’t see himself as a mentor, just a friend his teammates could go to for advice just like he could go to them.  Then he added something like, “but I’m glad they [the younger pitchers] had a chance to see this.”  I.e., had a chance to see that it is in fact possible to pitch a complete game, and what the elements are to doing it.  Lyles mentioned that once he got a cushion, he was very intent on not allowing any walks, and not even any 3-ball counts.  He was in “attack mode.”

Lyles is sitting on 170 IP now, with two starts remaining.  We certainly got what we paid for.  It’s a shame he got that stomach bug that caused him to miss a start and noticeably weakened him the next time out.  But for that, he might have reached 190 IP.  Hopefully, he’ll exceed last year’s 180.