Jordan Lyles 2022

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He walks.  The wall moving back has helped him a lot imo.  The down run environment has helped him.

The first part of that stays true in 2023.  Does the second part?

I hadn’t really focused on his home-road splits before now.  2.68 ERA, 1 HR allowed at home (9 starts); 5.70 ERA, 15 HR allowed on the road (13 starts).   That’s pretty dramatic.   I doubt the wall has taken away 9-10 homers though, especially considering he’s a RHP.

[Frobby]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-revisiting-jordan-lyles-who-is-winning-with-the-orioles/

[foxfield]

@Sports Guy says let him walk.  I don't really disagree, but I am not so sure.  For me, it could go either way. I am of the opinion that to take a step forward next year the Orioles need to add 2 quality SP.  I believe the easiest way would be to trade for one and sign one, and my target would be a #1 or two #2s.  If you let Lyles walk you need a third guy.  If you keep him you have the same guy you have now...but not as some anchor, but as a guy at the back of your rotation.  I'd be fine with that....but if you let him go....then I think you need three new pitchers.

And I know we have guys coming....Means, Grayson, Hall etc.  You can never and I mean never, have too much pitching.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, foxfield said:

@Sports Guy says let him walk.  I don't really disagree, but I am not so sure.  For me, it could go either way. I am of the opinion that to take a step forward next year the Orioles need to add 2 quality SP.  I believe the easiest way would be to trade for one and sign one, and my target would be a #1 or two #2s.  If you let Lyles walk you need a third guy.  If you keep him you have the same guy you have now...but not as some anchor, but as a guy at the back of your rotation.  I'd be fine with that....but if you let him go....then I think you need three new pitchers.

And I know we have guys coming....Means, Grayson, Hall etc.  You can never and I mean never, have too much pitching.

The last line isn’t true.  You can have too much if they aren’t good and too many resources are rolled into them.

You let Lyles go because you simply need better pitchers.  
 

The Orioles story is a nice one but realistically speaking, they aren’t close to the upper echelon of the AL. 
 

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The last line isn’t true.  You can have too much if they aren’t good and too many resources are rolled into them.

You let Lyles go because you simply need better pitchers.  
 

The Orioles story is a nice one but realistically speaking, they aren’t close to the upper echelon of the AL. 
 

What about a sign and trade? The $2M is a sunk cost for us, so we are looking at $9M. I would think someone would recognize the value there and take on the contract plus maybe giving us something Elias might find interesting. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What about a sign and trade? The $2M is a sunk cost for us, so we are looking at $9M. I would think someone would recognize the value there and take on the contract plus maybe giving us something Elias might find interesting. 

You better know the trade is happening.  

[sportsfan8703]

I think you have to look at it that the 2 million is a sunk cost. A 1/9 deal for Lyles is good value. Yes, he could crash and burn, but only at the same rate as every other pitcher on a 1 year deal. 

[foxfield]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The last line isn’t true.  You can have too much if they aren’t good and too many resources are rolled into them.

You let Lyles go because you simply need better pitchers.  
 

The Orioles story is a nice one but realistically speaking, they aren’t close to the upper echelon of the AL. 
 

Yeah no.....you never have too much pitching.   There is no abundance of starting pitching floating around on waivers because teams have too much of it.  Especially if your pitching isn't good and you are poorly allocating resources.

And if we have 6-7 starting pitchers better than Lyles on paper, then sure, let him go.  I have no problem with him being our #5 next year or lower at a net cost of $10M.  But I agree with you, I am happy to replace him with something better.

[DirtyBird]

4 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Yeah no.....you never have too much pitching.   There is no abundance of starting pitching floating around on waivers because teams have too much of it.  Especially if your pitching isn't good and you are poorly allocating resources.

And if we have 6-7 starting pitchers better than Lyles on paper, then sure, let him go.  I have no problem with him being our #5 next year or lower at a net cost of $10M.  But I agree with you, I am happy to replace him with something better.

The person arguing so vehemently against bringing him back also believes DL Hall will be a decent major league starter.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Yeah no.....you never have too much pitching.   There is no abundance of starting pitching floating around on waivers because teams have too much of it.  Especially if your pitching isn't good and you are poorly allocating resources.

And if we have 6-7 starting pitchers better than Lyles on paper, then sure, let him go.  I have no problem with him being our #5 next year or lower at a net cost of $10M.  But I agree with you, I am happy to replace him with something better.

It’s a bs cliche.

While it’s true that you can never have too much GOOD pitching, you absolutely can have too much mediocre pitching especially when the pitching is making a lot of money and blocking guys.  
 

It’s like saying to can never have too much depth.  That’s a lie.  You absolutely can because if you have too much, you run the risk of guys not developing and losing them for nothing.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

The person arguing so vehemently against bringing him back also believes DL Hall will be a decent major league starter.

Show me where I have said anything about my expectations of Hall as a ML starter. 

 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think you have to look at it that the 2 million is a sunk cost. A 1/9 deal for Lyles is good value. Yes, he could crash and burn, but only at the same rate as every other pitcher on a 1 year deal. 

That’s not true.

[gangsta gangsta]

Quote

And if we have 6-7 starting pitchers better than Lyles on paper, then sure, let him go.  I have no problem with him being our #5 next year or lower at a net cost of $10M.  But I agree with you, I am happy to replace him with something better.

I agree but do you guys honestly think we will go out and get 4-5 guys better than Lyles this offseason? Grayson is just now getting back to work, the timetable for a Means return is still unclear and Hall may need some time pitching from the pen to get his legs under him. 

 

I know Elias said they plan on spending some money this offseason but I don't see us spending for more than 2, 2-4 rotational guys. Plus Lyles eating up innings is a big reason our pen has seen a major uptick this year.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, gangsta gangsta said:

I agree but do you guys honestly think we will go out and get 4-5 guys better than Lyles this offseason? Grayson is just now getting back to work, the timetable for a Means return is still unclear and Hall may need some time pitching from the pen to get his legs under him. 

 

I know Elias said they plan on spending some money this offseason but I don't see us spending for more than 2, 2-4 rotational guys. Plus Lyles eating up innings is a big reason our pen has seen a major uptick this year.

Grayson, Wells and Hall, assuming no injuries, awful performance or trades, will be in the rotation for OD next year.

You then have Bradish, Kremer, ZImmerman and Povich as guys that are immediate or potentially close to immediate help.  Plus, you could have guys like Watkins and Voth as fill in guys.

The question isn’t will we have the depth.  The question is will they go out and get 2 very good to elite starting pitchers this offseason?

If they do, there is no need for Lyles.  If you don’t or you are only getting 1 guy, you probably have room for Lyles.  

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Grayson, Wells and Hall, assuming no injuries, awful performance or trades, will be in the rotation for OD next year.

You then have Bradish, Kremer, ZImmerman and Povich as guys that are immediate or potentially close to immediate help.  Plus, you could have guys like Watkins and Voth as fill in guys.

The question isn’t will we have the depth.  The question is will they go out and get 2 very good to elite starting pitchers this offseason?

If they do, there is no need for Lyles.  If you don’t or you are only getting 1 guy, you probably have room for Lyles.  

I would not assume Hall is in the rotation to start the year.  50/50.

We already know they aren't getting 2 ELITE starting pitchers.   Most likely, by your definition of elite, they aren't getting even one.   That's a pretty easy call on my part.   Two?   No frickin way!!!!!    One?   I doubt it very much.

They might get one or two guys who are considered  solid 3's.   I haven't really looked at the FA class that closely.

 

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by RZNJ