Bashing The O’s

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s not much transparency in major league finances.   When I calculated the non-payroll expenses of all the teams based on Forbes’ 2018 numbers, the Yankees were far above everyone else.  

Top 5:

NYY $446 mm

LAD $246 mm

BOS $185 mm

CHC $170 mm

SFG $159 mm

Bottom 5:

KCR $98.7 mm

OAK $98 mm

TBR $97 mm

CWS $97 mm

BAL $96.5 mm

Now, before you get too angry about the O’s being cheap (which of course, they were), they were one of only three teams to report an operating loss at the time, and the payroll was quite high (for them).   So, they were skimping on other things to maintain a high payroll.   

Bur, what the hell are the Yankees spending $446 mm on?

 

 

My assumption is that those numbers bear little or no resemblance to what laypeople would call operating expenses.  My guess is that the actual amount necessary to sustain reasonable operations of a MLB organization is in the $20-40M range.

[geschinger]

21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

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Their approach worked fine...for them.  I get where you're coming from but Elias was the director of amateur scouting, not the GM.  So he was there for it, but he wasn't the brain behind it all.  

Can he replicate it?  Remains to be seen.  

I don't know if he can replicate it but from day one when he was announced it's been clear he's going to try to do for Baltimore what he was part of in Houston.  The organizational portion seems to have been replicated successfully.  When it comes to international presence, minor league system, analytics - I think it's fair to say progress has been substantial and other than losing a year to Covid nothing has really deviated from the vision.  The next step should be improvement in the MLB team from seeing what they have.  If players don't develop and the team isn't better in 2022 that would be the first sign that maybe he can't replicate it.

27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

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Still don't see a downside in signing Ed-Rod this offseason.  Could have signed Pineda (9-8 with a 3.62 ERA 5-0 with a 1.85 ERA in his final five games last year) to the one year deal he got from the Tigers.  Could have signed Drew Smyly to the one year deal he got from the Cubs (although I'm not a giant fan of his, but he'd be better than what we have).  Boxberger.  Stroman.  Kluber.  

All deals we could have done, all would have most likely made us better in 2022.  None of those deals would have crippled this franchise for years on end had they blown up in our face.  

Agree, disagree?  

He's been up front about wanting to have signed another starter.  We'll see if anything is done between now and opening day.  One of those one year guys - Pineda, Smyly, etc... - not sure if he tried and if not why not - they would fit with both the strategy and what he wants to do.  As for a guy like ERod, like i said previously I personally would have been for it, it's not a huge risk even if it doesn't completely optimize playoff probabilities.  

But I also know to see what we have we need to be willing to let guys struggle and figure it out.   Which of the young guys the Orioles have to throw out there will develop over 150 innings of getting the crap beat out of them and go on to be worthy of a spot on a contending staff? 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I don't know if he can replicate it but from day one when he was announced it's been clear he's going to try to do for Baltimore what he was part of in Houston.  The organizational portion seems to have been replicated successfully.  When it comes to international presence, minor league system, analytics - I think it's fair to say progress has been substantial and other than losing a year to Covid nothing has really deviated from the vision.  The next step should be improvement in the MLB team from seeing what they have.  If players don't develop and the team isn't better in 2022 that would be the first sign that maybe he can't replicate it.

He's been up front about wanting to have signed another starter.  We'll see if anything is done between now and opening day.  One of those one year guys - Pineda, Smyly, etc... - not sure if he tried and if not why not - they would fit with both the strategy and what he wants to do.  As for a guy like ERod, like i said previously I personally would have been for it, it's not a huge risk even if it doesn't completely optimize playoff probabilities.  

But I also know to see what we have we need to be willing to let guys struggle and figure it out.   Which of the young guys the Orioles have to throw out there will develop over 150 innings of getting the crap beat out of them and go on to be worthy of a spot on a contending staff? 

I'll give Elias his credit, he's done a great job of building the farm system, drafting, setting up the international market.  

But it remains to be seen if he's the guy that go out and sign a good free agent (let alone a game changer).   He can sign a guy like Lyles, that's not hard.  

But dude, signing any one of those guys would not prohibit us from "seeing what we have."  Personally, I've seen enough of Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells, Baumann, etc, to have an idea of what they are.  Maybe one of them figures it out but I don't feel the need to watch 4 of them this year struggle to make it an entire season in the ML rotation.  

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The thing is, Houston was playing their young guys before 2014.  Kuechel already had 40ish ML starts.  Cosart had 10 starts in 2013.    Lyles made 65 ML starts before they traded him to the Rockies for Fowler.  Peacock had 14 starts and appeareds in 18 games in 2013.

By 2014, Altuve already had 1500 ML PA.

In 2013, the Astros had 19 players get 100 or more plate appearances.  8 were older than 25 and 2 players were 30 or older.

In 2021, the Orioles had 17 players who to 100 or more plate appearances.  14 of them were 25 or older and they also had 2 players 30 or older.

In 2013, the Astros had 10 pitchers start games, with 8 of them getting 10 or more starts.  Of those 10 starters, 2 were 30 years old or older, 6 were 25 or younger and Bud Norris was dealt to the Os midseason.

In 2021, the Orioles had 15 players start (a few were openers).  Of those 15,  were older than 30 and 3 were 25 or younger.  And Lopez, who was 28, was 3rd on the team in games started and he isn't now and never has been a starter at this level.

When you look at the Astros in 2013, they weren't playing a lot of guys with no future.  Carlos Pena got over 300 at bats (and performed poorly) and Bedard threw 150 innings and performed ok.   Outside of that, the starts and most of the PA went to players that had a chance to be part of a contender or a trade piece to help them get something.

Compare that with the 2021 Orioles..You had Severino, Galvis, Franco, Wynns, Guiterrez, Martin, Valaika and Ruiz.  Thats 1700 PA to players that aren't anything for the long term.  The Os gave hundreds of IP to pitchers with no long term future here and many of them got starts.

 

Thats part of the issue with this and why you can't use an apples to apples comp to the Astros.  We are playing far too many, go no where AAAA guys and not promoting our young talent to see what they can do.

I mean, look at these arguments.  We have people saying its dumb to bring in outside help until we are ready but yet those same people are saying its dumb to bring up prospects and waste their service time when the team isn't going to be any good.

Well, WTF is the solution?  You don't want talent brought up and you don't want talent brought in.  How the f*** is this team supposed to get better with 26 Pat Valaikas out there?

 

 

 

You make some great points but then undermine yourself with stuff like 26 Pat Valaikas. Mullins got an opportunity with the O's that he might not have in many other organizations, put up a 5 WAR seasons, and is now either CF of the future or top trade chip. Urias looks like a keeper at one of the middle infield positions. Mateo could be something as well. We gave opportunities to several lower level but legitimate pitching prospects and they unfortunately did not perform. The problem was not lack of opportunity, it was poor performance. The only pitcher I can think of who could have had a more extended opportunity was Lowther. 

Clearly Rutschman could have been up earlier based on talent but no organization in MLB would have brought him up in the O's situation. I am struggling to think of anyone else who was ready but held back in favor of a AAAA type. Remember the system lost the entire 2020 season.

[geschinger]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'll give Elias his credit, he's done a great job of building the farm system, drafting, setting up the international market.  

But it remains to be seen if he's the guy that go out and sign a good free agent (let alone a game changer).   He can sign a guy like Lyles, that's not hard.  

But dude, signing any one of those guys would not prohibit us from "seeing what we have."  Personally, I've seen enough of Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells, Baumann, etc, to have an idea of what they are.  Maybe one of them figures it out but I don't feel the need to watch 4 of them this year struggle to make it an entire season in the ML rotation.  

I agree that the jury is still out.  I know it's frustrating seeing those guys but remember it took a guy like Keuchel who was some where in the teens of their top prospect list - not exactly a Grayson caliber prospect - 150 innings to start to show signs that he could make it.  I'm obiously not expecting any of them to turn into anything close to what he became but I think it would be a mistake to throw in the towel on any of them without giving them an extended shot.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, geschinger said:

I agree that the jury is still out.  I know it's frustrating seeing those guys but remember it took a guy like Keuchel who was some where in the teens of their top prospect list - not exactly a Grayson caliber prospect - 150 innings to start to show signs that he could make it.  I'm obiously not expecting any of them to turn into anything close to what he became but I think it would be a mistake to throw in the towel on any of them without giving them a shot.

I'm not saying they shouldn't have a shot.  Again, they should.  But for every Keuchel or Means you get, there are literally dozens that don't pan out.  Even then, what's throwing in the towel mean?  Trading a few of them to perhaps fill a need elsewhere?  It's not the end of the world.  

Signing one or two respectable starters this year would still give plenty of innings to the guys we've discussed here.  

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

My assumption is that those numbers bear little or no resemblance to what laypeople would call operating expenses.  My guess is that the actual amount necessary to sustain reasonable operations of a MLB organization is in the $20-40M range.

Well, I certainly have no idea.   

[Moose Milligan]

Also, in regards to the thread title...it's fun to bash the O's.   Lord knows they've given us plenty of material to do so.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

You make some great points but then undermine yourself with stuff like 26 Pat Valaikas. Mullins got an opportunity with the O's that he might not have in many other organizations, put up a 5 WAR seasons, and is now either CF of the future or top trade chip. Urias looks like a keeper at one of the middle infield positions. Mateo could be something as well. We gave opportunities to several lower level but legitimate pitching prospects and they unfortunately did not perform. The problem was not lack of opportunity, it was poor performance. The only pitcher I can think of who could have had a more extended opportunity was Lowther. 

Clearly Rutschman could have been up earlier based on talent but no organization in MLB would have brought him up in the O's situation. I am struggling to think of anyone else who was ready but held back in favor of a AAAA type. Remember the system lost the entire 2020 season.

You clearly don’t understand sarcasm when it comes to the 26 Valaikas comment.  
 

As for the rest.,it’s all excuses.  Who cares if players were performing.  Give them a real chance.  We won 52 games or whatever.  Who the f*** cares?  What are you to do, damage them?  They were all old enough..all through a lot of minor league innings.  You have to give them real chances..not jerk them around.  
 

It’s so stupid to have a rebuilding team and put out most players who have zero long term use.  It’s indefensible and when you are talking with the context of we are doing the same thing as the Astros, that’s just bs.  We aren’t.  They gave those players real chances, even when they sucked.  
 

The Orioles aren’t doing that and when we do have guys who deserve their chances, we manipulate their service time and don’t bring them up because “we don’t want to waste a year”.  It’s stuuuuuppppiiiiiiddd.  
 

I reiterate..if we don’t bring up the young talent that’s ready and we don’t bring in outside help, how do we get better and get to the point where we do bring up the young talent and bring in outside help?

It’s such a bad argument.  There is zero logic to it.  And what’s really funny is, most of the people arguing for these things also think we are doing a great job at building something yet we aren’t close to contending.

none of it makes sense.  None of it goes together.  It’s just inconsistent argument after inconsistent argument and when take in the context of each argument, none of it flows together.

You can’t feel we are doing a good job and are loaded with talent yet be 3+ years away after 3 years of being total dog sh!t.  You can’t say we are modeling ourselves after the Astros when we don’t give players a chance.  
You can’t say we need to wait on bringing players on and bringing players in because we need to be good. You can’t be good with no talent!  It doesn’t work that way.  

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You clearly don’t understand sarcasm when it comes to the 26 Valaikas comment.  
 

As for the rest.,it’s all excuses.  Who cares if players were performing.  Give them a real chance.  We won 52 games or whatever.  Who the f*** cares?  What are you to do, damage them?  They were all old enough..all through a lot of minor league innings.  You have to give them real chances..not jerk them around.  
 

It’s so stupid to have a rebuilding team and put out most players who have zero long term use.  It’s indefensible and when you are talking with the context of we are doing the same thing as the Astros, that’s just bs.  We aren’t.  They gave those players real chances, even when they sucked.  
 

The Orioles aren’t doing that and when we do have guys who deserve their chances, we manipulate their service time and don’t bring them up because “we don’t want to waste a year”.  It’s stuuuuuppppiiiiiiddd.  
 

I reiterate..if we don’t bring up the young talent that’s ready and we don’t bring in outside help, how do we get better and get to the point where we do bring up the young talent and bring in outside help?

It’s such a bad argument.  There is zero logic to it.  And what’s really funny is, most of the people arguing for these things also think we are doing a great job at building something yet we aren’t close to contending.

none of it makes sense.  None of it goes together.  It’s just inconsistent argument after inconsistent argument and when take in the context of each argument, none of it flows together.

You can’t feel we are doing a good job and are loaded with talent yet be 3+ years away after 3 years of being total dog sh!t.  You can’t say we are modeling ourselves after the Astros when we don’t give players a chance.  
You can’t say we need to wait on bringing players on and bringing players in because we need to be good. You can’t be good with no talent!  It doesn’t work that way.  

Other than Rutschman, when have we not brought up talent?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Other than Rutschman, when have we not brought up talent?

You could have had Bradish, Grayson and Adley all up last year getting time. 

The younger pitchers (outside of ZImmerman because he got hurt) could and should have been given more time up here.  
 

We should have made a more conscious effort to go get other prospects from other teams that were ready and could help out up here.  Instead, we just kept plugging in crappy player after crappy player.  
 

2021 was very different than 2013 Houston.  

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

You could have had Bradish, Grayson and Adley all up last year getting time. 

The younger pitchers (outside of ZImmerman because he got hurt) could and should have been given more time up here.  
 

We should have made a more conscious effort to go get other prospects from other teams that were ready and could help out up here.  Instead, we just kept plugging in crappy player after crappy player.  
 

2021 was very different than 2013 Houston.  

Rutschman we know was about service time. Agree to disagree there. 

Grayson started in A+ and finished in AA. Obviously had a great year but he was not going to be a serious contributor last year. Let's see what happens this year. 

Bradish started in AA. Got promoted after only 13 innings. If anything he was rushed up to AAA  and failed to earn promotion. Best case scenario for him would have been a cup of coffee.

Bottom line I am not seeing anyone other than Rutschman who was ready and didn't get an opportunity due to being blocked by a AAAA guy.  

[LookinUp]

59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Have you seen the post-game spread for the media?

The lighting alone had to cost $1 million/year.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Rutschman we know was about service time. Agree to disagree there. 

Grayson started in A+ and finished in AA. Obviously had a great year but he was not going to be a serious contributor last year. Let's see what happens this year. 

Bradish started in AA. Got promoted after only 13 innings. If anything he was rushed up to AAA  and failed to earn promotion. Best case scenario for him would have been a cup of coffee.

Bottom line I am not seeing anyone other than Rutschman who was ready and didn't get an opportunity due to being blocked by a AAAA guy.  

Ok

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You could have had Bradish, Grayson and Adley all up last year getting time. 

The younger pitchers (outside of ZImmerman because he got hurt) could and should have been given more time up here.  
 

We should have made a more conscious effort to go get other prospects from other teams that were ready and could help out up here.  Instead, we just kept plugging in crappy player after crappy player.  
 

2021 was very different than 2013 Houston.  

Your posts on the last two pages of this thread have made me recognize that the O's are just legitimately behind where the Astros were at this point. The better talent (absent Rutschman) simply wasn't ready yet.

Especially remembering the Covid year, Bradish was just establishing himself last year. Rodriguez still hasn't thrown any real innings with a ML ball, plus I'm happy they were careful with him after Covid.

Kremer got a big chance and stunk. Zimmerman got hurt. Wells was bad pretty much everywhere. Akin has had a real chance. The one guy that I wish was really given a real chance was Lowther.

And now the team has 2 starting pitchers penciled in. That sure makes it seem to me like they're going to give innings to all of those guys and see what happens. Exactly what you asked for, just a year later.