Tyler Wells 2022

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I think Elias has put that narrative to rest this year. In addition to Wells, Urias, and Mateo, we now can add Krehbiel, Perez, and Jorge Lopez, all contributing positive WAR at virtually no cost.

I’d argue that it takes more than 50 games to decide if someone is a nugget.  But things are trending in the right direction for these players.   Let’s hope they continue to provide value.  

[Tony-OH]

Is Tyler Wells a long term answer in the starting rotation? that's the question was have to ask ourselves and while the 3.71 ERA through his first 10 starts this year is pretty good, let's look at the numbers a little closer and see if it's done with mirrors or sustainable success.

The first thing we have to remember is that Wells is almost 28 years old (August). I know we all think of him as being so young because he was rookie last year and a rule 5 pick, but Wells is older than Zimmermann, Akin, Baumann, Kremer, Lowther, Gillespi and A. Wells.

When looking at his overall numbers this year, the first thing that jumps out is his 14th percentile K% (15.9%, 5.8/9 K) and 40th percentile WHIFF. The next thing that jumps is a positive, his 90th percentile walk percentage (4%, 1.4/9). So while he's not missing a ton of bat and doesn't seem to have that goto K pitch, he's not getting hurting because he's not giving up free bases often.

Let's look at the stuff:

His Fastball has good vertical movement but is just a little below average on horizontal movement. 
BA       SLG    wOBA WHIF  K%   Putaway    xBA    xSLG   xwOBA  hard hit %
.277    .508    .349    18.1    9.9      9.3          .321    .668    .421        56.7

Basically he's been outperforming his expected outcomes on the fastball so that's something to keep an eye on and could mean regression.

Slider
BA       SLG    wOBA WHIF  K%   Putaway    xBA    xSLG   xwOBA  hard hit %
.238    .333    .273    26.6    21.3    13.7        .227    .352    .301         32.4

While the slider has slightly below average vertical movement he's getting slightly above average horizontal movement and been his 2nd best putaway pitch (getting outs).

Change
BA       SLG    wOBA WHIF  K%   Putaway    xBA    xSLG   xwOBA  hard hit %
.216    .270    .214    30.8    18.9    15.6        .176      .199     .161          10.0

The change has been his best overall pitch. It's not hit hard (78.4 EV) and it's been his go to putaway pitch. Not surprisingly he's starting throw it almost as much as his changeup.

Curve
BA       SLG    wOBA  WHIF  K%   Putaway    xBA    xSLG   xwOBA  hard hit %
.235    .353    .278     28.9   16.7    8.8           .146     .172      .169       21.4

The curve has been very effective as well with it's 13.1 inches of horizontal break, it's 5.7 inches more than the average curveball at that velocity which means it's something different for hitters to see. 

So the good news overall is that he has four pitches that are useable and can get outs. His three offspeed offerings allows his fastball to play up and when he keeps that pitch up in the zone, he can get swings and misses of it because of the above average vertical (lack of gravity drop).

The repertoire suggests he can stick as a starter and if locates well, he should be a good 4th starter type similar to Chris Tillman. He's a good find by Elias/Sig. Just don't expect TOR stuff from him. He's probably going to be a 4.00 to 4.50 ERA kind of starter. 

[Sports Guy]

Yea the not missing bats and getting Ks thing bothers me but you have to love the command and control.

Im not convinced we are better off with him in the rotation vs the pen but we definitely need to keep seeing him in the rotation to have a better long term idea.

[btdart20]

Proverbial 'pitching backwards' is his key.  Not getting ambushed on a first pitch FB by throwing strikes with a breaking ball.  

[Frobby]

So is Tyler Wells our ace now?

6 IP, 1 R and the win today.  His ERA stands at 3.62, and since April 27 it’s 3.14.   

With the six innings today, he’s exceeded his innings total from last year, 59.2 to 57.0.  He’s on pace to throw 140+ innings.   Will the O’s push him that far?  As a minor leaguer he topped out at 119.1, following which he needed TJ surgery.  
 

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So is Tyler Wells our ace now?

6 IP, 1 R and the win today.  His ERA stands at 3.62, and since April 27 it’s 3.14.   

With the six innings today, he’s exceeded his innings total from last year, 59.2 to 57.0.  He’s on pace to throw 140+ innings.   Will the O’s push him that far?  As a minor leaguer he topped out at 119.1, following which he needed TJ surgery.  
 

We don't have an ace. He has been our best and most consistent pitcher, and perhaps Elias's biggest find in the rebuild period. Great win against a quality pitcher and division rival. Best strike-thrower we've had since Chen. Appears on pace for about 2.5-3 WAR. 

[connja]

Wells has to be one of the most encouraging stories in 2022 chapter of the rebuild.  Not sure if he's a 1 or 2 on a division championship team, but he's most definitely looking like a solid rotation piece.

 

 

[bpilktree]

Rodriguez, Means, Hall, Wells as the top 4 sounds pretty good then you have Bradish/Kramer/Zimmerman/FA fighting for 5th spot.  

[jdwilde1]

15 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

Rodriguez, Means, Hall, Wells as the top 4 sounds pretty good then you have Bradish/Kramer/Zimmerman/FA fighting for 5th spot.  

Or add a rotation piece in free agency that is more than a guy fighting for the fifth spot.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

Don't the terms ace and TOR just mean the best starting pitcher on your team?

[Frobby]

52 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Don't the terms ace and TOR just mean the best starting pitcher on your team?

Depends on the context, IMO.  If I say a pitcher is “an ace,” that’s one thing.  If I say he’s “the ace of the staff,” that’s something else.  

[Sports Guy]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

So is Tyler Wells our ace now?

6 IP, 1 R and the win today.  His ERA stands at 3.62, and since April 27 it’s 3.14.   

With the six innings today, he’s exceeded his innings total from last year, 59.2 to 57.0.  He’s on pace to throw 140+ innings.   Will the O’s push him that far?  As a minor leaguer he topped out at 119.1, following which he needed TJ surgery.  
 

 

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

So is Tyler Wells our ace now?

6 IP, 1 R and the win today.  His ERA stands at 3.62, and since April 27 it’s 3.14.   

With the six innings today, he’s exceeded his innings total from last year, 59.2 to 57.0.  He’s on pace to throw 140+ innings.   Will the O’s push him that far?  As a minor leaguer he topped out at 119.1, following which he needed TJ surgery.  
 

Can he continue to pitch this well with the lack of Ks and missed bats?  I’m very skeptical but maybe.  

[bpilktree]

17 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

Or add a rotation piece in free agency that is more than a guy fighting for the fifth spot.  

is there a guy in this class that is worth it is the question.  looks like a lot of guys past prime with some injury issues and a few guys having breakout years in the free agent year which always makes you wonder if this fluke year.  I do think a guy like Musgrave or Taillon could be option if they don't command a ridiculous amount.  

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

So is Tyler Wells our ace now?

6 IP, 1 R and the win today.  His ERA stands at 3.62, and since April 27 it’s 3.14.   

With the six innings today, he’s exceeded his innings total from last year, 59.2 to 57.0.  He’s on pace to throw 140+ innings.   Will the O’s push him that far?  As a minor leaguer he topped out at 119.1, following which he needed TJ surgery.  
 

It's not exactly a high bar to reach. I'd say Wells probably gives the Orioles the best chance to win out of our current starters.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's not exactly a high bar to reach. I'd say Wells probably gives the Orioles the best chance to win out of our current starters.

I think this is the best way to describe him.

IMO, I don't know what we'd have in Wells until this time next year.  He's already thrown more innings this year than he had in all of last year and we're not even at the halfway mark.  It remains to be seen if they shut him down at some point or keep letting him go out there until the end of the season.

The most innings he's thrown at any professional level were the 119.1 he threw across A+ and AA in 2018.  IMO, he's entering uncharted waters for himself here as it'll be the most amount of innings he's thrown at the highest professional level.  

It remains to be seen how he'll handle the rest of the workload this year.  And if he can achieve similar results next year, too.  

But the early returns are encouraging.  I do believe that he does give us the best chance to win out of our current starters.