Tyler Wells 2022

[CharmCityHokie]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Can he continue to pitch this well with the lack of Ks and missed bats?  I’m very skeptical but maybe.  

This is my concern, the lack of K's and high flyball percentage concern me, especially as we get into the summer weather. He can obviously strike guys out, I wonder if he is trying to pitch more to contact to last longer into the game given he knows he's on strict pitch counts per game.

[Just Regular]

Ben in one of his early games floated 30 chunks of 4 innings as a goal for him.

He has exceeded IP/G there, and if he completes his second chunk of 60 innings across another 12-13 turns, that'd get him to that 120 IP number with about 30 games left in the season.

September shutdown candidate?    I believe Elias likes stretching the innings across the longer time frame so would more guess in-game caps could get tighter soon.    Chicken-egg problem, it probably helps a pitcher's nastiness if he knows he's supposed to empty the tank in 65 pitches.

[jdwilde1]

26 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

is there a guy in this class that is worth it is the question.  looks like a lot of guys past prime with some injury issues and a few guys having breakout years in the free agent year which always makes you wonder if this fluke year.  I do think a guy like Musgrave or Taillon could be option if they don't command a ridiculous amount.  

It’s a pretty typical to good free agent class and there is inherent risk associated with pitching (whether in the draft or free agency).  Starting pitchers cost what they cost since every team needs five guys.  The point is, we should aim to sign someone who is more than a dumpster dive fifth starter in the best case.  Moreover, the O’s payroll has been very low the last several years, so it’s not like signing a guy at the going rate is going to hamstring the club in the future.

Signing either Taillon or Musgrove (or both) would be a slam dunk. Also, guys like Tijuan Walker, Verlander, Mike Clevenger and many others would potentially be a significant upgrade.  By the off-season, we’ll know who’s arm is still attached.  The O’s should be aggressive for at least one starter.  

 

[ChuckS]

Adding two credible starters in the off-season whether through free agency or trade is a must. It’s the only priority IMO.

 

[Frobby]

Jon Meoli has a free blog up about Wells’ lower strikeout totals this year, which appears to be a conscious choice by Wells as he tries to stay within his innings restrictions.   A few tidbits:

“I’ve gotten to the point where I don’t really care about the big [strikeout] numbers,” Wells said. “I care about making sure guys don’t get on base and create chaotic innings, trying to attack that. I’m just trying to compete and it’s a process. When you’re on an innings limit, you feel like you sort of restrict yourself in certain aspects.”

… Wells’ fastball has been hit hardest of any of his pitches, but the weak contact he gets when throwing his secondary pitches over the plate is distinguishing him this year. 

Among 121 pitchers with at least 750 pitches entering Tuesday, Wells had the second-best expected slugging percentage on non-fastballs in the strike zone (.280) and fourth-best in expected weighted on-base average against on those pitches (.240). While Wells’ fastball has been hit hard at times this year, he’s taken advantage of having three other pitches to use and getting results when he throws them in the strike zone. 

Perhaps that’s one way Wells can sustain what he’s done so far.

* * *

“It’s hard for me to go out there and want to chase strikeouts when you only have a certain amount of pitches you can go per outing,” Wells said. “If I started doing that, it turns into eight, 10 pitch at-bats and all of a sudden I’ve used up a good portion of my pitches already just on one guy.”

https://jonmeoli.substack.com

Now, I think there have been some studies indicating that more strikeouts does not correlate with higher pitch counts.  It certainly seems that Wells does not believe that, and my impression is he’s not alone among pitchers and coaches in holding that view.   I think it boils down to whether inducing weak contact is a repeatable skill.   Inducing early contact that turns into outs lowers pitch counts; inducing early contact that turns into hits extends pitch counts.  Simple as that.   

 

 

[Aristotelian]

Ideally, you'd throw strikes and get K's. If you can have only one or the other, I'd rather throw strikes. I can't recall a pitcher having success with such a dropoff though (10.3 K/9 last year vs 5.9 K/9 this year). In the minors he was also 9-10 K/9. I have to think his K/9 normalizes somewhat.

Interestingly, emphasizing command you would think he would be going more FB this year, but he is actually throwing FB 41% (down from 58%) with a lot more changeups and a few more sliders. Could be a function for facing more LHB as a starter. 

Chen comes to mind as having success in Camden Yards with low K/9, but even he was high 6's/low 7's.. Rare but not impossible. 

[RZNJ]

You can't compare his strikeout totals as a 1-2 inning reliever and compare that to a starter.  Well, I guess you can but you'd expect some dropoff as being normal.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You can't compare his strikeout totals as a 1-2 inning reliever and compare that to a starter.  Well, I guess you can but you'd expect some dropoff as being normal.

Some dropoff would be normal.  This level of dropoff is abnormal.

[Frobby]

Just to follow up on this, last year Wells averaged 15.68 pitches per inning, this year it’s 15.55.   So, it would seem the impact of fewer strikeouts on pitch count is pretty minimal.   On the other hand, as a starting pitcher you expect him to allow more hits, and that increases P/IP.  His P/PA is down from 3.99 to 3.87.   Still not drastic. 

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You can't compare his strikeout totals as a 1-2 inning reliever and compare that to a starter.  Well, I guess you can but you'd expect some dropoff as being normal.

He was more of a strikeout pitcher in the minors as a starter, and 5.9 K/9 is pretty extreme! 

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Some dropoff would be normal.  This level of dropoff is abnormal.

Yes.

[wildcard]

But Wells is telling us what is in trying to do and he is doing it.  He is limiting his pitches per inning by pitching to contact.    And comparing pitches per inning in 1 or 2 innings last year as a reliever to 5 or 6 innings this year as a starter  is not a equal comparison.   

Kudos to Wells for adjusting to the situation.

[Aristotelian]

4 K's in 5 shutout innings, not bad. Walks were the bigger concern this time but managed to get out of trouble when needed. Wells has been an absolute godsend and I have been completely wrong about moving him to the rotation. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

4 K's in 5 shutout innings, not bad. Walks were the bigger concern this time but managed to get out of trouble when needed. Wells has been an absolute godsend and I have been completely wrong about moving him to the rotation. 

I feel like Wells managed his way through a tough outing command-wise.   Thing is, when he misses the strike zone, he doesn’t miss by a lot.  

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

4 K's in 5 shutout innings, not bad. Walks were the bigger concern this time but managed to get out of trouble when needed. Wells has been an absolute godsend and I have been completely wrong about moving him to the rotation. 

Not many missed bats though.

His K rate is in the 5s.  Of the starters who have pitched 40 or more innings(129 pitchers), only 5 starters have a worse K rate than he does.

Funny enough, 3 of the 5 starters also have a sub 4 ERA but Wells has the highest WAR and the best xERA.  His FIP and xFIP, which suggest he will be giving up a lot more runs, is on par or better than all of them as well.