O’s ranked 30th in ESPN power rankings

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Tied for most.

 

Would be hilarious if the O's lost 110 games again and ended up picking 18th.

 

 

The odds for receiving the No. 1 selection are as follows:

Worst record: 16.5%

Second-worst record: 16.5%

Third-worst record: 16.5%

Fourth: 13.25%

Fifth: 10%

Sixth: 7.5%

Seventh: 5.5%

Eighth: 3.9%

Ninth: 2.7%

10th: 1.8%

11th: 1.4%

12th: 1.1%

13th: 0.90%

14th: 0.76%

15th: 0.62%

16th: 0.48%

17th: 0.36%

18th: 0.23%

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/

I edited my post while you were writing this.   I believe only the top 6 picks are by lottery, so the lowest we could pick is 7th.  18 teams have a shot at picking in the top 6, but once those 6 are awarded, the remaining teams pick in order of who had the worst record.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I edited my post while you were writing this.   I believe only the top 6 picks are by lottery, so the lowest we could pick is 7th.  18 teams have a shot at picking in the top 6, but once those 6 are awarded, the remaining teams pick in order of who had the worst record.   

I know that's more or less the way the NBA does it.  I haven't heard if it is what MLB will be doing.

Will be less hilarious if they end up picking 7th.  Of course they could pick 7th and go with the 18th ranked player. 

[Just Regular]

0.2% implies 500-simulations minimum.

I think in 500 tries, there are a few where Mullins and Rutschman, or Means and Rodriguez overlap as MVP/Cy Young contenders, and we trade DL Hall, Coby Mayo and Jordan Westburg for Justin Verlander, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.

Just need a 6-game win streak to run your record to 11-7 like the 2020 Orioles and watch that magic start to unroll all the way to the 6th best record in the league.

Adley Rutschman is out a month with a muscle strain in all 500 of them though.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I know that's more or less the way the NBA does it.  I haven't heard if it is what MLB will be doing.

Will be less hilarious if they end up picking 7th.  Of course they could pick 7th and go with the 18th ranked player. 

Or, they could pick 7th and end up with the best player chosen in the first round, like they did with Markakis.   

I’d prefer not to have the worst record in baseball this year.  
 

[SteveA]

I wonder if the ping pong ball lottery will be nationally televised like the NBA's is.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I wonder if the ping pong ball lottery will be nationally televised like the NBA's is.

I'm expecting an envelope with a creased corner.

[jabba72]

18 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I wonder if the ping pong ball lottery will be nationally televised like the NBA's is.

Sure. All the networks will carry it 

[Just Regular]

I think we're better than OAK, but a bottom-3 record and 165 of the 1000 ping-pong balls likely.

Chance of missing Top 1 Pick = 83.5%

Missing both of Top 2 Picks = 69.7%

Missing all three of Top 3 Picks = 58.2%

Missing all four = 48.6%

Missing all five = 40.5%

Missing all six = 33.9%

So whether you lose 94, 99 or 111, looks like one in three chance you'll pick 7th or worse.

[Just Regular]

6 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Sure. All the networks will carry it 

It's going to be like a Jean Pinto start.    All thirty-six of the people in the world who care will be here.

[jabba72]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

It's going to be like a Jean Pinto start.    All thirty-six of the people in the world who care will be here.

Now thats something I literally will be watching. Hope the Aberdeen camera angle is good.

[Going Underground]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm expecting an envelope with a creased corner.

But if the Orioles were doing the telecast,it would have to done remotely and the envelope hygienetical sealed.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm expecting an envelope with a creased corner.

I remember that one. 

The 1985 Patrick Ewing, Knicks, David Stern ‘Frozen Envelope’ Conspiracy… Proved!

 

[Sports Guy]

I think the best case scenario is more of a 500 record than 70 wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Projected record: 58-104 (0.2% playoff odds)

If everything goes right ... Cedric Mullinsbuilds on his All-Star season, Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez establish themselves as future stars, the pitching staff -- which had a 5.84 ERA in 2021 -- lowers its ERA by a run a game thanks to the fences getting moved back at Camden Yards, and the Orioles win ... 70 games. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33647294/2022-mlb-season-preview-power-rankings-playoff-odds-everything-need-all-30-teams
 

They're lucky they only included MLB teams because I'm guessing the Orioles aren't in the top 35 baseball teams in the world.  They probably wouldn't finish over .500 in the NPB.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

They're lucky they only included MLB teams because I'm guessing the Orioles aren't in the top 35 baseball teams in the world.  They probably wouldn't finish over .500 in the NPB.

The travel would be brutal.