On the Bubble

[Sports Guy]

I personally like Akin better but there is very little separating them.

[OriolesMagic83]

It looks like O's fans will have a month plus of Odor to look forward to.  I know you're not supposed to hope someone does poorly, but if Odor puts up a hot streak, he could be on the team till the All-Star break.  I'm sure he'll crater at some point to a sub .200 average, a pitiful OBP and a few HR.

[SteveA]

29 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

1. It is the IL not the DL, this is the 4th season since that change.

2. Mateo played yesterday. There is no reason for him to go on the IL.

Mateo got hit in the hand with a pitch yesterday and left the game.  Awaiting x-ray results. 

[wildcard]

Nathan Ruiz of the Sun brings up a good point.   With the O's thinking of Mancini as an option in the outfield corners there might not be playing time for Stewart.    So if that is true and the O's want a left-handed bat it improves Odors chances.   At least until Stowers is ready.

[Oriole1940]

Regimes change but the constant over too many years to think about without becoming ill  is ownership. It is as if many have become comfortable in the losing mode.  Like, I would rather be comfortable and keep things unchanged, than admit what needs to be done to win,   and do it.  

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Nathan Ruiz of the Sun brings up a good point.   With the O's thinking of Mancini as an option in the outfield corners there might not be playing time for Stewart.    So if that is true and the O's want a left-handed bat it improves Odors chances.   At least until Stowers is ready.

Mancini is a worse defensive option in the outfield than Stewart. And if Stewart was not on the roster, then an even worse hitter would be DHing when Mancini played the outfieId to give a corner outfielder a day off.

[btdart20]

I'd take Owings over the other "utility" guys.  He fits that mold a little better from position flexibility and the speed he brings.  But bet they keep Odor for a while to see how OPACY helps him...  

If they keep Owings, I could see them keeping Stewart or Odor for the LH.  If they keep Odor, then it's probably McKenna.  

SPs - Wells will be paired with someone who compliment his pitch profile.  Zimmermann probably would be the best match (lefty with more spin).  But I think Zimmermann will open as our #4.  So Akin will piggyback with Wells.  And I think Baumann opens as our #5.  

RPs - Hope they keep Bautista.  Think they keep Ellis too.  @wildcard- think you're right about waiver claims too.

[bobmc]

17 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Mateo got hit in the hand with a pitch yesterday and left the game.  Awaiting x-ray results. 

X-ray results and diagnosis are ready within minutes.  We are awaiting reportage of same - 

[OriolesMagic83]

18 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I'd take Owings over the other "utility" guys.  He fits that mold a little better from position flexibility and the speed he brings.  But bet they keep Odor for a while to see how OPACY helps him...  

If they keep Owings, I could see them keeping Stewart or Odor for the LH.  If they keep Odor, then it's probably McKenna.  

SPs - Wells will be paired with someone who compliment his pitch profile.  Zimmermann probably would be the best match (lefty with more spin).  But I think Zimmermann will open as our #4.  So Akin will piggyback with Wells.  And I think Baumann opens as our #5.  

RPs - Hope they keep Bautista.  Think they keep Ellis too.  @wildcard- think you're right about waiver claims too.

Agree it makes no sense to keep Odor and Stewart.  I can't see Stewart as the 4th OF. 

[Going Underground]

40 minutes ago, bobmc said:

X-ray results and diagnosis are ready within minutes.  We are awaiting reportage of same - 

Yes,but the Orioles are still using the 70mm photofluorographic X-ray developed by Johns Hopkins in the 1950's.

[Moose Milligan]

55 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Nathan Ruiz of the Sun brings up a good point.   With the O's thinking of Mancini as an option in the outfield corners there might not be playing time for Stewart.    So if that is true and the O's want a left-handed bat it improves Odors chances.   At least until Stowers is ready.

Oh darn.  How will we move forward without DJ Stewart?

[btdart20]

Feels like there are a few 4th OF options who add value elsewhere with Owings, Mancini, and Mateo.  And I don't think McKenna or Stewart have any long term MLB value other than organizational depth.  

Honestly, our OFers are decent defensively.  And as good as we have offensively.  So barring injury, it's not like we're going to play anyone other than Hays, Mullins, and Santander.  But if healthy, they will play 150+ games of the time (and I know Hays/Santander haven't proven that they can yet).  The O's could make do for a game or two until whoever they tap in the minors (McKenna/Stowers/...) can make it to the team.

If I'm making the decision (and the goal is to maximize MLB value vs org value), the "4th OF" spot is covered already and the roster spot would probably shift toward the pitching staff to give more options/leverage scouting match-ups.  I'd rather see a few IP from those 'on the bubble' pitchers than a few ABs from the fringy 4th OF.

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What good does calling them out do?  You think their effort level is the problem?

I would have liked Elias to own the idea that this is his team and he has thus far been unable to provide the team with adequate pitching talent.

I think it signals a subtle shift in where the rebuild is at currently. It's not like he yelled at these guys. Zimmermann said he fully agreed with Elias. I think guys want to hear this kind of thing from their GM, honestly. Elias has signaled we are moving beyond guys playing purely for the ML experience. He expects some results now, as he should, and it's a nice challenge to lay out there. There are two veteran starters and a group of guys who now have ML experience under their belt. Let's go. 

[interloper]

57 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Mancini is a worse defensive option in the outfield than Stewart. And if Stewart was not on the roster, then an even worse hitter would be DHing when Mancini played the outfieId to give a corner outfielder a day off.

I'm not sure I would agree with this, but if the numbers back it up then that's fair. But it's gotta be pretty close. 

[interloper]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

My thoughts on who goes and who stays to start the season:

Infield/DH:  Mountcastle, Mancini, Urias, Mateo and Gutierrez are in.

Utility infielder job TBD:

 Richie Martin has improved his stock a lot with a 1253 OPS in 22 ABs in ST.  But he has a 575 OPS in the majors and a 644 OPS at AAA.   He is on a minor league contract.  O's will probably assign him to AAA as the everyday SS/2B and tell him to prove it at that level.  May play him in CF to improve his versatility.

Chris Owings  plays everywhere.  Fits the utility role.  Will not hit much.   Is  on a minor league contract.  If he has an opt out he will stay.  If he doesn't the O's may delay the decision and leave him in the minors to start the season.   I hope he stays.

Rougned Odor only plays 2B.  Doesn't fit the utility role. A left-handed power bat off the bench with .200 batting average is about right.  Competing  with Stewart for that role.  On a major league contract with no options.  The 700K salary does not figure into it.  If he is DFA'd and another MLB team picks him up they take the rest of the salary. Probably comes down to if they need the 40 man roster spot. Could keep Owings and Odor. I  would not keep him but I am not Elias.

Outfield: Mullins, Hays, Santander are in.

Ryan McKenna probably makes the team for his glove considering the big LF/CF at home.   559 career OPS in the majors and 612 OPS this spring is not why  he stays.   On major league contract with options.  Has proven all he needs to a AAA. Hays can play CF but with his injury history the O's need a back up with range. Owings does not have McKenna's range.  If Martin shows he can play CF and hits at AAA he could compete for this spot in a month or two.  Martin has the speed.

DJ Stewart   competing for the left-handed bat off the bench with Odor.  Can play RF/DH at home and also LF on the road.  Hurt for part of the spring, the decision will be made off his 732 career OPS and his power.  Has an option.  I would take him over Odor but I don't know what Elias will do.

Tyler Nevin  is ticketed for AAA IMO.  1B/3B/COF if he hits a AAA we could see him later this season.

Catcher:  Chirinos is in.

Backup Catcher: Bemboom/Nottingham/Taylor you pick.  Taylor has an option and is left-handed.  Bemboom is a lefty and showed well in ST.    Nottingham showed well and is right-handed.   All on minor league contracts.  None is likely to hit much.  One is needed to be added to the roster.   Because Chirinos is age 37 the back up will see some playing time until Adley is promoted in 16 to 30 days. 

Starters:  Means, Lyles, Tyler Wells are in.

Zimmerman, Kremer, Akin, and Baumann are still competing for the last two spots.  Elias could carry them all with 15 pitchers on the roster.  Especially if a tandem arrangement is used to begin the season.  All have options.  Only Akin has spent a year at AAA.  The other three have not proven themselves at that level.   Grayson and Bradish could be promoted in as little as a month so time is short for these guys to prove they belong in the majors.

Pen:  Tate, Lopez, Fry, Perez, Baker, Krehbiel are in. Tate, Fry, Baker and Krehbiel have options.  Lopez and Perez do not.  All are on the 40 man roster.

That is 13 pitchers and Elias may carry 15.

Felix Bautista was a fast mover through the O's minors last year.  His 100 mph fastball gets peoples attention.  He had a 4.91 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP this spring.   Its his 5 walks in 3.2 IP that probably get him optioned to AAA to begin the season.  He is on the 40 man roster and will be back. JMO

Mattson goes on the IL.

Travis Lakin Sr is on a minor league contract.  Has a 4.21 career ERA and a 1.442 WHIP. Has a 3.68 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP this spring. But Elias is watching the waiver wire.  He requires a 40 man roster spot. Elias may look at Lakins as depth instead of promoting him.

Chris Ellis is on minor league contract.  He is a 29 year old journeyman pitcher who pitched well (2.49 ERA and 1.224 WHIP) in 25.1 innings last year for the O's.  He has a 9.45 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP this spring.   I think Elias sees him as depth and he will start in the minors.

Spenser Watkins (29) is on a minor league contract. He had an 8.07 ERA and a 1.701 WHIP for the O's last year. He has a 6.35 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this spring.  I think be begins the season at AAA.

Elias will probably pick up one or more pitchers from the waiver wire in the next week.   That will be the determining factor on who stays.  It would not be surprising if he finds a position player he likes as well.

All this is just my opinion.   What is yours?

Fun post as always! I hadn't considered that Elias would simply choose to bypass the non-40-man bullpen options (Lakins, Watkins, Ellis) in favor of some waiver claims, but I think you may have something there. 

I do think Bautista is in, though. 

Would much rather have Stewart than Odor.