Grayson Rodriguez 2022

[bobmc]

13 hours ago, justD said:

Anyone else see the start by Logan Gilbert last night? His season so far is what I would expect and hope Grayson’s will be. And when things go a bit south for him, I swear birdland will melt down. 
 

Still, cannot wait. 

Yes and Adley the same.  You had to "(wo)mansplain"* the reason why he had a PB/WP the other night at Bowie.  

* Or were you actually "mansplaining"?  

[interloper]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I watched the first 4 innings.  

96-97 first 3 innings. Saw a 94 in the 4th and some pitches at 90-91 so I'm not sure if they were regular fastballs or not. He was predominantly fastball/changeup from what I could see.  I missed one pitch I heard the announcer call a curve but I did not see one myself.  I think I saw a few sliders/cutters. They didn't have a lot of break.  It seemed like a lot of pitches caught the middle of the plate and most were belt high to top of the strike zone.  There weren't many hard hit balls but I wasn't impressed by his command last night.  Good control. Not so great command LAST NIGHT.

This is kind of how I've felt watching him all year. I dunno if it's the minor league camera angle but I'm not really seeing the "nastiness" in his stuff like I did with Hall in ST. He's also not really locating great. I'm probably overthinking it and he has a lot of time to improve and grow still. I just expect a little more filth based on his hype as a true #1 ace prospect.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, oldfan said:

Having never seen him pitch, can he get big league hitters out in the strike zone?

His stuff and command are excellent, but to me you just never know how a pitcher will do against major league hitters until they’re doing it.   When I’ve seen Rodriguez pitch (in person once, on TV or highlights other times), it’s clear that he messes with minor league hitters’ timing.   They gear up for the 98 mph fastball, they get a changeup that looks identical coming out of his hand and are completely flummoxed.   They start hedging for the changeup, and they get a fastball top of the zone they can’t catch up to.   And the slider and curve could be coming too.   It’s a really tough combo.

But, he’s really only been pitching for five innings, and if he goes past there he gets yanked at the first sign of trouble.   Maybe the O’s are saving his stressful innings for the majors, but to me they’re not really preparing him to handle major league situations.   Major league hitters are tenacious.   They’re better at recognizing pitches.   They make you throw more pitches to get them out.   So I don’t know what Grayson’s going to do when he’s at pitch 22 and the inning isn’t over, or when his pitch count is at 60 after three innings.  I don’t know what he’s going to do when the bases are loaded.   I don’t know how he’ll react when he throws a perfect changeup just below the zone that 95% of minor leaguers flail at, and good hitters take it for a ball.

I’m hoping to find out soon.   But I’m not thrilled with how he’s being coddled.  

[emmett16]

It is pretty absurd that they have not challenged him in AAA.  As pointed out above, he is going to have his work cut out for him learning on the fly at the major league level.  I imagine as he goes through the learning curve & as MLB pitchers see him for first time, there will be a lot of 3 & 4 inning outings.  

[Just Regular]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Major league hitters are tenacious.   They’re better at recognizing pitches.   They make you throw more pitches to get them out.

My level of expectation today that Grayson Rodriguez unders 50 MLB innings and stays eligible for 2023 prospect lists has probably graduated from the 0-10% range to the 10-25% range with the last few shaky games.

Obviously some of that is the non-zero chance of any kind of health mishap as is always true for every pitcher.

But some of it is the thought that after averaging 69 pitches last year, he just isn't going to get to average more than 80 this year.   Sometime this summer, Hyde is going to pull him at 66 pitches in the third inning, and get the body language analysts ready.   He isn't going to feel like the MLB team leading him 3-2 at that moment is better than him.   There might not be a MASN Orioles upload of the gaggle at his locker after that game.   I think MLB games he gets touched up some will be more abundant than games he can get 18 outs with his pitch limit.

Even if the 27 Games Started I think might be the target number for 2022 all happen, I can imagine an 80 pitch budget resulting in ~4.5 MLB innings/game on average, and then a 10 Minors/17 Majors split only puts you at about 75 innings.   

I hope he kicks sand in Logan Gilbert's face like Stephen Strasburg did to Jordan Zimmermann, but even if it is in him to do that why would Elias push the accelerator that hard for the 2022 Orioles?

[wildcard]

I am more concerned about Grayson not pitching on 4 days rest than not going deep in game.   With his innings limit for this year I would be fine if he average 5 innings per game.

[Just Regular]

Despite 3 so-so games by his standards in Turns 4-6, he has more or less continued his life practice of K-BB% considering him clearly the best pitcher in the league immediately.    A little less sensationally than AA and High-A, but still.    Sorry Max Meyer...

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=2&stats=pit&qual=y&type=1&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=11,1

George Kirby's opening 25 innings about the same 28-29% in AA Texas League making his MLB debut today.   I wonder if he's ever touched a AAA/MLB baseball.

[seak05]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m hoping to find out soon.   But I’m not thrilled with how he’s being coddled.  

I'm not sure he's been coddled the last couple starts, as opposed to pulled because that's what will happen in the majors. For instance last night, if a pitcher is in the 5th inning and struggling, they're likely to be pulled at the major league level too.  That said, I do think he needs to learn how to pitch out of trouble, go through a line-up three times, and throw 100 pitches...even if that isn't the best way to get norfolk the win that day/evening, as these are all things we're going to want him to do at the major league level. 

[oldfan]

Just like Bradish not been able to stop the bleeding in his last inning against the Twins.

[oldfan]

Wouldn't it be a nice surprise if Hall was the #1 and GRod was close #2.

[btdart20]

47 minutes ago, oldfan said:

Wouldn't it be a nice surprise if Hall was the #1 and GRod was close #2.

The order doesn’t matter to me.  Hoping both are TOR starters.  Both have as good of a shot at that as the Kirby’s, Max’s, and Logan’s of the league.

I would like to see Grayson work deeper.  The # of days rest can be worked around at the MLB level (and hopefully they do this year).  Would be nice to see him in Baltimore in the next 30-45 days…  Even if it’s for 4 IP at a time.  Same for Hall.  Maybe not ideal but at least getting in the ML reps.

 

[Just Regular]

Paul DeJong ringer-style in today's AAA lineup opposing him.

[Just Regular]

I'm not sure Paralyzer on the PA during a pitching coach visit after your second walk of the 1st is exactly homecooking.

Two strikeouts and a DeJong pop-up along with the 1st inning jitters.    High pitch count 1st inning.

[vab]

Struggling 1st but got out of it - 26 pitches/12 strikes. 

[Absltgreek]

He's a bit wild, but he's also definitely getting squeezed a bit by the ump. Dropped a nice breaking ball that should have been strike 3, called a ball by ump.

 

Similarly Adley got a called strike 3 against him for a pitch that looked inside.