Keegan Akin 2022

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

I remember when John Parrish was an effective reliever from his return from knee injury in August 2003 until he injured his elbow in June 2005 and needed Tommy John surgery.

He had a 3.10 ERA over 119 innings across 84 appearances despite having a BB/9 over 6.

Eyeballing his game log, I am guessing that August 19, 2003 (his third appearance post-injury) through the end of the season was his The Truth month, as he had a 1.27 ERA during that stretch and a 3.0 BB/9.

Gotta say, I would be pretty happy if we got 84 solid relief appearances and a 1.9 rWAR across the next one and two-thirds seasons from Akin, even if it never earned him a cool nickname. That would be the makings of a nice career, especially if he can avoid blowing out his elbow like Parrish did.

It's unfortunate that JP was never quite the same after his TJ surgery. Saying that, he Akin was similar in several ways, but Akin has a much better change than Parrish had.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I've seen him do that a few times in the minors, but wasn't sure was a hot gun. Either way, it has come together for him in this role and it's a role they need to keep him in. It's almost like a role I suggested for him since Bowie.

Well, you almost have to let someone try to be a starter and fail before you put him in the pen, if he has have any chance at all of sticking as a starter.   

The irony I’m seeing here is that one of Akin’s big problems as a starter was he was reaching 90 pitches after like four innings, and thus couldn’t get past the 5th even on days when he was pitching pretty well.  But right now he’s averaging about 12 pitches an inning.   He’s literally thrown 91 pitches in 7.2 innings.  That’s like one really good, pitch efficient start.  Honestly, I’m not changing his role right now, but if he approached anything like his current level for another 5-6 outings and other guys were faltering as starters, I’d be tempted to have him start a game and see how it goes.   Or, use an opener and then let him try to go five in relief.  
 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Well, you almost have to let someone try to be a starter and fail before you put him in the pen, if he has have any chance at all of sticking as a starter.   

The irony I’m seeing here is that one of Akin’s big problems as a starter was he was reaching 90 pitches after like four innings, and thus couldn’t get past the 5th even on days when he was pitching pretty well.  But right now he’s averaging about 12 pitches an inning.   He’s literally thrown 91 pitches in 7.2 innings.  That’s like one really good, pitch efficient start.  Honestly, I’m not changing his role right now, but if he approached anything like his current level for another 5-6 outings and other guys were faltering as starters, I’d be tempted to have him start a game and see how it goes.   Or, use an opener and then let him try to go five in relief.  
 

I dunno.  I don't want to mess with whatever little success is working so far.

Some guys, IMO, just can't hack it as a starter.  They've got four or five days to sit around and stew.  Akin might be that guy...but as a reliever, he's got a few minutes to get ready and then two, maybe 3 innings to cut loose.  There's no time to get nervous or overthink things....or know that he has to go 5 or 6 innings.

If he's going good as a reliever, let that sleeping dog rest.  The game is different now, starters are being used as a bridge to get to a really good bullpen...and if he's part of a really good bullpen, so be it.  

[Camden_yardbird]

Akin is a reliever and that is okay, but here is why.

1.  He has begun throwing his slider almost 1/3 the time.  Obviously extremely small sample size, but the xBA has been great and has been masking what was a bad fastball (but which also got better).  Very few pitchers can get by with this profile as a starter (Boyd, Corbin).

2.  The move to the pen has allowed for increased velocity.  Fast ball up 1.3 mph, slide 1 mph, change 1 mph.  The speed (and perhaps some other adjustments) has completely changed the movement profile on his slider.  As a starter I would expect those gains to go away.

I would let him establish himself in this role and understand what success looks like.  If he can sustain it through the year maybe you think about moving him around next year.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Akin is a reliever and that is okay, but here is why.

1.  He has begun throwing his slider almost 1/3 the time.  Obviously extremely small sample size, but the xBA has been great and has been masking what was a bad fastball (but which also got better).  Very few pitchers can get by with this profile as a starter (Boyd, Corbin).

2.  The move to the pen has allowed for increased velocity.  Fast ball up 1.3 mph, slide 1 mph, change 1 mph.  The speed (and perhaps some other adjustments) has completely changed the movement profile on his slider.  As a starter I would expect those gains to go away.

I would let him establish himself in this role and understand what success looks like.  If he can sustain it through the year maybe you think about moving him around next year.

Yeah.  I don't automatically think the "let's switch him to the bullpen" is an automatic key to success but for some guys it is.

Also, Akin looks like he's slimmed down a bit this year.  I would imagine losing excess heft has helped him.  

[Tony-OH]

19 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, you almost have to let someone try to be a starter and fail before you put him in the pen, if he has have any chance at all of sticking as a starter.   

The irony I’m seeing here is that one of Akin’s big problems as a starter was he was reaching 90 pitches after like four innings, and thus couldn’t get past the 5th even on days when he was pitching pretty well.  But right now he’s averaging about 12 pitches an inning.   He’s literally thrown 91 pitches in 7.2 innings.  That’s like one really good, pitch efficient start.  Honestly, I’m not changing his role right now, but if he approached anything like his current level for another 5-6 outings and other guys were faltering as starters, I’d be tempted to have him start a game and see how it goes.   Or, use an opener and then let him try to go five in relief.  
 

I'm ok with trying guys as a starter first if they are having good success in AAA in that role (ala Bradish), but Akin had a 4.80 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 25 starts there. His problems were the same there is they were in the big leagues in that he was too inconsistent from outing to outing and sometimes ining to inning when he needed to be stretched out. 

As a reliever this year, he's averaging 93.3 MPH vs 92 MPH in the past. He's getting better vertical movement (less drop) and more horizontal movement with the pitch this year. He's using his slider 10% more than last year (29.7% vs 19.5%) and he's getting more vertical and horizontal movement on the pitch and it's up 1.2 MPH. His changeup has more horizontal movement (1.8 inches) as well, which is something most of the Orioles pitchers have this year (more on that in in another thread). 

So basically, all of his stuff is playing up in this role. Now could it be that suddenly a lightbulb went off and he can maintain this stuff and command as a starter every 5 days? I certainly can't say 100% that it can't, but I think he's shown what he can do as a starter when trying to maintain his stuff over 5 or more innings vs coming out and knowing you are probably not going to throw more than 3.

I think Akin found his role and the Orioles should keep him there. He could be the Orioles new Arthur Rhodes.

[Just Regular]

BP had a piece this morning on the reliever-ization of all pitching.   At least in the last few years, there is a decent body of evidence that Rays-Brewers type atomization of all pitching, giving extra rest even to "good" SP's like Burnes-Woodruff, is obviously correct in terms of keeping runs off the board.    The 5 options/year thing may do a little to help Bats, but today's hitters probably have to prepare themselves for the reality they may never ever ever in their careers get a third look at a tiring starter, unless the score is already 8-1.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/74003/baseball-therapy-clayton-kershaw-relievers/

There’s been for a while an unspoken shift in pitching usage that we need to talk about. Everyone knows that the average start now lasts just a bit more than five innings, and even if you control for the “opener effect” and look for the pitcher who recorded the most number of outs for each team, that doesn’t move the needle much either. It’s a relievers’ league.

But I don’t think that fully captures what’s going on here. I think that this normally gets labeled as “Pitchers aren’t as able to sustain as they used to be” when that’s not the case. If you want to understand modern pitching usage, you need to remember seven words.

Everyone is a reliever. Even the starters.

 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm ok with trying guys as a starter first if they are having good success in AAA in that role (ala Bradish), but Akin had a 4.80 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 25 starts there. His problems were the same there is they were in the big leagues in that he was too inconsistent from outing to outing and sometimes ining to inning when he needed to be stretched out. 

As a reliever this year, he's averaging 93.3 MPH vs 92 MPH in the past. He's getting better vertical movement (less drop) and more horizontal movement with the pitch this year. He's using his slider 10% more than last year (29.7% vs 19.5%) and he's getting more vertical and horizontal movement on the pitch and it's up 1.2 MPH. His changeup has more horizontal movement (1.8 inches) as well, which is something most of the Orioles pitchers have this year (more on that in in another thread). 

So basically, all of his stuff is playing up in this role. Now could it be that suddenly a lightbulb went off and he can maintain this stuff and command as a starter every 5 days? I certainly can't say 100% that it can't, but I think he's shown what he can do as a starter when trying to maintain his stuff over 5 or more innings vs coming out and knowing you are probably not going to throw more than 3.

I think Akin found his role and the Orioles should keep him there. He could be the Orioles new Arthur Rhodes.

Everything you say is fair.  I’ll be very happy if he can be as productive as Rhodes.   What I’m not sure of is whether his better velocity and movement (and, importantly, command) are the result of him changing roles, or whether they’re the result of work he did in the offseason and just a general change of mindset.  If it’s the former, then obviously he must remain as a reliever.  But if it’s the latter, perhaps you give him another bite of the apple as a starter.   If it doesn’t work, he goes back to the pen.

In any event, I’m not advocating for a change in role right now.   Let him settle into this one for a while.    
 

[Il BuonO]

Good to see Akin come right back after the HR and attack the strike zone.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Good to see Akin come right back after the HR and attack the strike zone.

21 strikes in 25 pitches.  

[Just Regular]

It was only secondary screen on mute at end of workday, but looked like too many strikes to Sean Murphy.

I'm glad he's found a niche and some general effectiveness in this role, but would have wished he pitched Murphy a little more carefully, considering the Oakland lineup's overall quality.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Good to see Akin come right back after the HR and attack the strike zone.

In some ways, this was his best outing of the year because of what you said right here.  

[jabba72]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

21 strikes in 25 pitches.  

Why cant he do  this when he starts?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, jabba72 said:

Why cant he do  this when he starts?

Who says he can’t?   It’s a new year.   He’s pitching differently.   But, throwing that many strikes might not work the second or third time through the lineup.  

[OriolesMagic83]

On 4/19/2022 at 3:26 PM, Frobby said:

Well, you almost have to let someone try to be a starter and fail before you put him in the pen, if he has have any chance at all of sticking as a starter.   

The irony I’m seeing here is that one of Akin’s big problems as a starter was he was reaching 90 pitches after like four innings, and thus couldn’t get past the 5th even on days when he was pitching pretty well.  But right now he’s averaging about 12 pitches an inning.   He’s literally thrown 91 pitches in 7.2 innings.  That’s like one really good, pitch efficient start.  Honestly, I’m not changing his role right now, but if he approached anything like his current level for another 5-6 outings and other guys were faltering as starters, I’d be tempted to have him start a game and see how it goes.   Or, use an opener and then let him try to go five in relief.  
 

He seems to have found his role.  5 innings of a 5.50 ERA is less valuable than 3 innings of a 3.50 ERA.  That's my estimate of what he would be as a starter vs. long reliever.  I think he's just a better pitcher in the bullpen.  Akin always seems like that guy that was going to struggle to hold down a #5 starter spot.  I'm glad he's found something he's very good at.  Yeah I know, SSS.