Orioles Minor League pitching development

[Tony-OH]

Elias has made a conscious decision to not draft pitchers in the first ten rounds. In his three drafts he's drafted exactly four pitchers in the first ten rounds:

2021 Draft - Carlos Tavera (5th round)
2020 Draft - Carter Baumler (5th round)
2019 Draft - Griffin McLarty (8th round) and Connor Gillispie (9th Round)

McLarty and Gillispie are not Top-30 prospects, Baumler has already under gone Tommy John Surgery, and Tavera is 23 years old and has exactly 14.1 professional innings pitched so far.

Now it's very early in the season, but typically, with the colder weather of the spring, pitchers are usually ahead of he hitters a bit, but the pitching has been pretty bad overall in the Orioles system, particularly in Delmarva.

Tm	Lg	Lev	PAge	R/G	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
Affiliate Totals				6.32	11	8	.579	5.79	19	19	19	0	0	7	171.0	173	120	110	20	113	0	196	11	4	13	796	1.673	9.1	1.1	5.9	10.3	1
Delmarva Shorebirds	CARL	A	21.9	8.50	2	2	.500	7.75	4	4	4	0	0	2	36.0	40	34	31	4	36	0	41	4	3	8	188	2.111	10.0	1.0	9.0	10.3	1.14
Aberdeen IronBirds	SALL	A+	23.5	5.25	4	0	1.000	5.00	4	4	4	0	0	3	36.0	33	21	20	4	22	0	51	2	0	0	162	1.528	8.3	1.0	5.5	12.8	2.32
Bowie Baysox	EL	AA	24.0	7.75	1	3	.250	7.97	4	4	4	0	0	0	35.0	42	31	31	7	22	0	49	2	0	3	168	1.829	10.8	1.8	5.7	12.6	2.23
Norfolk Tides	IL	AAA	25.6	4.86	4	3	.571	3.94	7	7	7	0	0	2	64.0	58	34	28	5	33	0	55	3	1	2	278	1.422	8.2	0.7	4.6	7.7	1.67

I watched a few Delmarva games over the weekend and they have guys pitching that don't even belong in pro ball. The control has been pretty bad across the board which makes you wonder about the Orioles development program. The Orioles pitchers have very low pitch count numbers for their pitchers compared to the other teams they've been facing and you have to wonder about their ability to get them ready for their seasons when almost all of them do not look very sharp.

In addition, the Orioles treat some of the better prospects with such kid gloves that you have to wonder when they will get on the mound enough to develop. Pitchers rarely throw over 80 pitches and if you get hurt, they'll rehab you for months or in Baumler's case, well over 17 months when most pitchers are back on the mound.

It'll be interesting to watch the pitching this year and while they should get better than this poor start, Delmarva's pitching staff is going to be very bad unless they get new talent in. 

I sure hope the Orioles will be able to trade for pitching from their positional strength because outside of Rodriguez, Hall, Bradish and maybe Pinto and Rom, there's not a lot in the cupboard to get excited about.

[jabba72]

The strategy appears to be to trade for Starting Pitching since its obvious they only draft pitching under extreme circumstances. Maybe that will change this year since Delmarva appears to be struggling. Latin America seems like they have a near even ratio of pitching to position player signings the last time I looked it up. 

[ChuckS]

I'm not sure if the strategy of not drafting any pitchers in the early rounds is an every year strategy or if they just wanted to install a pipeline of position talent to quickly bolster the system and plan to switch their draft focus to pitching in 2022 and beyond.  Could the missed 2020 season/lack of data on pitchers also have something to do it?

There is simply going to be no place to play these guys if they continue with this strategy.  The outfields and infields in the upper minors are starting to get crowded and eventually these guys are going to start getting blocked at the major league level by more advanced talent that needs to get a look. 

 

 

[wildcard]

If the O's can develop the starters they have they should be alright for a while.  So far as ceiling goes I would rank them:

Grayson, DL, Means, Bradish, T Wells, Baumann, Lyles, Zimmermann.

That is 8 starters.  Lyles may be a short timer but the rest could be with the O's for a good while.

Adding talent is always good but that is a pretty good foundation to work with.

And somehow, don't ask me how,  Elias seems to find relievers on the waiver wire.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I'm not sure if the strategy of not drafting any pitchers in the early rounds is an every year strategy or if they just wanted to install a pipeline of position talent to quickly bolster the system and plan to switch their draft focus to pitching in 2022 and beyond.  Could the missed 2020 season/lack of data on pitchers also have something to do it?

There is simply going to be no place to play these guys if they continue with this strategy.  The outfields and infields in the upper minors are starting to get crowded and eventually these guys are going to start getting blocked at the major league level by more advanced talent that needs to get a look. 

 

 

When players are blocked that is when trades occur.

[Aristotelian]

48 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If the O's can develop the starters they have they should be alright for a while.  So far as ceiling goes I would rank them:

Grayson, DL, Means, Bradish, T Wells, Baumann, Lyles, Zimmermann.

That is 8 starters.  Lyles may be a short timer but the rest could be with the O's for a good while.

Adding talent is always good but that is a pretty good foundation to work with.

And somehow, don't ask me how,  Elias seems to find relievers on the waiver wire.

Rom and Pinto too, maybe Baumler if he gets healthy. Still, remember the Cavalry? We were 6-7 deep and it wasn't enough. I think Grayson and Hall are probably better than any of the Cavalry but overall we are probably thinner. 

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Rom and Pinto too, maybe Baumler if he gets healthy. Still, remember the Cavalry? We were 6-7 deep and it wasn't enough. I think Grayson and Hall are probably better than any of the Cavalry but overall we are probably thinner. 

Much deeper now.   Means was an all-star and pitched a no hitter.   Grayson and DL look like TOR starters.  Bradish has a 95-96 mph fastball and two breaking pitches he can control.  He looks like the steal on the Bundy trade.  T Wells has starter stuff. Four pitches, the question is can he go 5 innings.   Baumann is showing us a 97-98 mph fastball, a curve and a slider that can be out pitches.    

Lyles is an innings eater that is probably a trade chip but could help while he is here.  I am not in love with Zimmermann's stuff but I like the 4 innings he pitched opening day.

 

[LookinUp]

There's little doubt that the arms are far behind the hitters in terms of this org prospects right now, specifically those acquired by Elias. You can hope that Rodriguez and Hall are both awesome and others help fill in, but I personally think he'll have to spend some real draft capital on a couple of highly regarded arms this year.

[Frobby]

On the issue of being cautious with the pitchers’ innings, I think we need to see how things play out.   The O’s weren’t particularly shy in 2019 — they had 12 minor league pitchers throw 100+ innings, including four who topped 130.   Last year was an anomaly coming back from the 2020 canceled season, with only four pitchers topping 100 innings, and the highest at 110.   So, we will see where things are at the end of 2022.   I realize the O’s have opened the season being very conservative, but I think it’s premature to say if it will stay that way.  

As to quality, especially at the lower levels, I agree that bears watching.   If you watched a lot of Delmarva over the weekend it’s no wonder you’re concerned — 31 runs in three games.   Happily they were better last night, allowing only 3.   Let’s hope some of these guys look better as the season progresses.   (Lleras, I think, is a lost cause.   He makes Matthias Dietz look like Greg Maddux!)
 

[SteveA]

On 4/13/2022 at 4:26 PM, Frobby said:

On the issue of being cautious with the pitchers’ innings, I think we need to see how things play out.   The O’s weren’t particularly shy in 2019 — they had 12 minor league pitchers throw 100+ innings, including four who topped 130.   Last year was an anomaly coming back from the 2020 canceled season, with only four pitchers topping 100 innings, and the highest at 110.   So, we will see where things are at the end of 2022.   I realize the O’s have opened the season being very conservative, but I think it’s premature to say if it will stay that way.  

As to quality, especially at the lower levels, I agree that bears watching.   If you watched a lot of Delmarva over the weekend it’s no wonder you’re concerned — 31 runs in three games.   Happily they were better last night, allowing only 3.   Let’s hope some of these guys look better as the season progresses.   (Lleras, I think, is a lost cause.   He makes Matthias Dietz look like Greg Maddux!)
 

Orioles released Lleras just a day or so after Frobby declared him a "lost cause".

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

Orioles released Lleras just a day or so after Frobby declared him a "lost cause".

Did they?   Well, I feel bad for him on a personal level.   But, it’s for the best.  

[interloper]

I think the work in the lower levels of the system isn't quite done, and it definitely lacks some pitching talent. But we have to give guys like Baumler and Tavera some more time. They're literally just beginning their pro careers. 

[Tony-OH]

42 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Orioles released Lleras just a day or so after Frobby declared him a "lost cause".

He should have never had made Delmarva to start off with. He's never been any good and was a project arm that never developed. 

[Tony-OH]

18 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think the work in the lower levels of the system isn't quite done, and it definitely lacks some pitching talent. But we have to give guys like Baumler and Tavera some more time. They're literally just beginning their pro careers. 

I'd like to get excited about Baumler, but he's 17 months out from surgery, 20 years old, and could not make a full season club. 

He's either a very slow healer, much more raw than thought of when drafted, tweaked something and they're hiding it, or he's on the slowest rehab program known to professional pitching. 

He was pitching against competition at the beginning of minor league spring so something happened or Sig's magic 8-ball computer spelled out the exact date for Baumler to pitch against hitters in the minors and we haven't reached it yet.

[RZNJ]

Pre- Elias

Grayson Rodriguez
D.L. Hall
Drew Rom

Post Elias

Jean Pinto
Kyle Bradish
Moises Chace
Carlos Tavera
Brandon Young

Obviosly Rajisch did a great job getting Rodriguez and Hall where he did on those drafts and they could be huge success stories.  Elias, IMO, has drafted very well on the position side and basically not drafted at all on the pitching side.  He knew he had a little inventory there, has aquired a bunch via trade, with Bradish and Pinto looking the most promising.   Our minor league inventory looks strong and I think the pitching is a little under the radar.  

It seems that Tony is down on Sig and the computer system but if that system has significant input on our drafts then it's hard to be unahppy about it.  Our depth of position prospects has become very impressive and it's hard to find many duds drafted in the first 5 rounds of the last 3 drafts.  Players like Ortiz and Haskin have emerged from modest debut seasons to become legit prospects (too early on Haskin).  Most every top 5 round pick still looks interesting to this point something rarely seen in pre-Elias Oriole drafts.  You need pitching to win, of course.  We all know that.  Elias has certainly shown that he's capable of trading for interesting minor league arms or recently drafted pitchers.  I'm sure we'll see more of that as our and possibly trades for young ML pitchers or veteran pitchers as our minor league depth starts to bottle neck at AAA.