Comparing Mayo to Henderson to Mountcastle (Is Mayo a disappointment this year?)

[Tony-OH]

Is Coby Mayo a disappointment this year is a debate going on in Frobby's other thread.

Let's compare Mayo to Gunnar in Aberdeen. Both were the same playing age but it's worth noting that Henderson is only 5 months older than Mayo. Just for fun, let's put Ryan Mountcastle's stats in at the same age and level though Frederick was a hitter's park vs Aberdeen's pitcher's park rep.

Name                BA     OBP   SLG   WOBA   BB%      K%       ISO      wRC+  PAs
Henderson     .230    .343    .432    .341   13.8%    30.1%   .202     109      289
Mayo              .234    .290    .489    .336   7.1%      25.2%   .255     100      155
Mountcastle  .314     .343    .542    .390   3.7%      16.1%   .228     146      379  

It seems as though Henderson had better plate discipline drawing 6.7% more walks than Mayo but it came at a 4.9% increase in Ks. Mayo clearly though has the power edge wit the .255 ISO to Henderson's .202. 

Just for retrospect, Henderson slashed .227/.348/.391/.739 in his first 155 PAs in Aberdeen so let's see if Mayo starts to adjust as he gets closer.

Honestly, the only thing that has been disappointing is the lack of walks and poor OBP. The one thing I always said about Mountcastle that despite the lack of walks, he hits for a high average. Mayo right now is not doing that and that is more of a concern than anything. He's shown more power than either of the other two, but he's far off the pace OBP wise. 

In the end, Mayo is holding his own, but low OBP and lack of walks is a bit of a disappointment this year. Hopefully he'll catch fire soon, but the power is legit.

[waroriole]

I didn’t realize the OBP was so low for Mayo this year. I’m trying not to get too up or down about any prospect yet, based on their stats so far this year. By July, will Henderson still be raking at the same clip, will Cowser resolve his K issues, will Westburg raise the BA and advance on to Norfolk? 

[Brooks The Great]

No, Mayo is not a disappointment. He's still super young and the raw power is special. He'll get better with experience, but as I said during this past offseason, some of Mayo's impressive numbers in 2021 were due to the level of his competition. 

I have always said that Gunnar's ability to adapt to each new level in 2021 after initially struggling was impressive, and that he was challenged a lot more than Mayo in 2021.

Since the end of the 2021 season, I've always thought that Gunnar is the better overall prospect because he's a better defender and he has very good plate discipline. He's a true ballplayer, even if he's not a high average hitter. Mayo has more power. We're lucky to have both in the system and hopefully have them both star as major league regulars for a long, long time.

 

[emmett16]

From the games I've watched it looks like he swings at a lot of bad pitches early and puts himself in the hole.  He's often batting 0-1, 0-2, 1-2.  Kinda looks like he makes up his mind to swing ahead of time and lets it fly resulting in some gnarly looking swing choices.   But when he catches it, it's loud contact. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

46 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

No, Mayo is not a disappointment. He's still super young and the raw power is special. He'll get better with experience, but as I said during this past offseason, some of Mayo's impressive numbers in 2021 were due to the level of his competition. 

I have always said that Gunnar's ability to adapt to each new level in 2021 after initially struggling was impressive, and that he was challenged a lot more than Mayo in 2021.

Since the end of the 2021 season, I've always thought that Gunnar is the better overall prospect because he's a better defender and he has very good plate discipline. He's a true ballplayer, even if he's not a high average hitter. Mayo has more power. We're lucky to have both in the system and hopefully have them both star as major league regulars for a long, long time.

 

It's not like he was playing at an inappropriate level. He played rookie ball and then low-A, which is what we should expect from a HS draftee in his first year in the minors. He was -2.3 vs. AvgAge for Low-A last year. He's -2.6 vs. AvgAge for High-A this season.

[Frobby]

Interesting comparison, Tony, and thanks for the analysis.   One of my rules in my stock up/stock down thread was I wasn’t allowed to keep anyone in neutral.  Mayo was very close to the borderline, but I put him in stock down because my expectations for him were extremely high.   I’m still quite high on him and it wouldn’t be surprising if in a month he’s worked his way into the stock up category.   He’s a young player who’s moved up quickly.  Like Henderson, he hasn’t faced a pitcher all year who’s younger than he is.   I think as the season goes along, he’ll keep improving.  

[Frobby]

Coby’s final numbers at Aberdeen: .250/.326/.479, 22.2% K/PA, 9.3% BB/PA, .356 wOBA, 114 wRC+, .229 ISO in 270 PA.  Pretty much better than Gunnar at Aberdeen in every respect except BB%, though 9.3% is quite respectable, especially considering Coby’s age for this level.   

In the five weeks since Tony posted this thread, Coby hit .271/.375/.479, with an 18.8% K rate and 12.5% BB rate.   All good trends.

Given how Gunnar has blown up this year, I doubt Coby will match Gunnar’s 2022 numbers at Bowie.  But, the fact that he did a bit better than Gunnar at Aberdeen makes me think he will handle the transition to Bowie pretty well.  I’m excited to see how he’ll do there.   

Coby did eventually have two at bats against a pitcher who was younger than him, during his 270 PA at Aberdeen.  


 

[Tony-OH]

45 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Coby’s final numbers at Aberdeen: .250/.326/.479, 22.2% K/PA, 9.3% BB/PA, .356 wOBA, 114 wRC+, .229 ISO in 270 PA.  Pretty much better than Gunnar at Aberdeen in every respect except BB%, though 9.3% is quite respectable, especially considering Coby’s age for this level.   

In the five weeks since Tony posted this thread, Coby hit .271/.375/.479, with an 18.8% K rate and 12.5% BB rate.   All good trends.

Given how Gunnar has blown up this year, I doubt Coby will match Gunnar’s 2022 numbers at Bowie.  But, the fact that he did a bit better than Gunnar at Aberdeen makes me think he will handle the transition to Bowie pretty well.  I’m excited to see how he’ll do there.   

Coby did eventually have two at bats against a pitcher who was younger than him, during his 270 PA at Aberdeen.  


 

Name                BA     OBP   SLG   WOBA   BB%       K%       ISO      wRC+  PAs   Pro PAs prior to A+
Henderson     .230    .343    .432    .341   13.8%     30.1%   .202     109      289         278 
Mayo              .250     .326    .479    .356   9.3%      22.2%  .229     114       270         216
Mountcastle  .314     .343    .542    .390    3.7%      16.1%   .228     146      379         698

Final A+ numbers. Remember Mountcastle played in a much more hitter friendly park at Frederick, but wRC+ takes park considerations into effect. Mountcastle also had significantly more pro experience prior to playing in High-A with Henderson and Mayo missing 2020 due to COVID. 

With a little less experience than Henderson, Mayo showed a bit more power (.229 to .202 ISO), hit for a higher average (.250 vs .230), struck out 7.9% less, had a better WOBA (.356 to .341) but walked 4.5% less.

Mountcastle struggled in his first taste of Bowie after being promoted to AA Bowie (First Mountcastle numbers below). I excluded Henderson's last five games of last year in AA (17 PAs and 10Ks) just because it wasn't easy to put these numbers together, but these are Henderson's AA numbers at a year older. I added in Mountcastle full season at AA to compare to Henderson's gaudy numbers.

Name                BA     OBP   SLG   WOBA   BB%       K%        ISO      wRC+  PAs   Pro PAs prior to AA
Henderson     .312    .452    .573     .441   19.7%      18.3%    .261     180      208         584 
Mountcastle   .222    .239    .366    .266    1.9%       22.0%   .144     146      159         1081
Mount (AA)     .297    .341    .464    .357     6.1%       18.5%   .168      121      428         1207
Mayo                                                                                                                                486

It will be interesting to see if Mayo hits the Mountcastle speed bump or takes off like Henderson did. Mayo enters AA with the least amount of pro PAs, 98 less than Henderson who also got Bowie Camp PAs during 2020 when Mayo was at home.

 

 

 

[Frobby]

I’m guessing Mayo lands well above the Mountcastle speed bump and well below the Henderson rocket launch.   If he could match Westburg’s .750ish number from last year, that would be awesome.  Really, anything over .700 would be pretty encouraging considering his age.  

[LookinUp]

Yeah, not sure it's fair to compare whatever Mayo does to what Henderson did this year, both because Henderson was out of this world and because Mayo's going to be making in-season adjustments instead of coming straight from spring training. Henderson's cup of coffee in AA last year is statistically immaterial, but at least it was an introduction to that level of competition.

Either way I'm pretty happy with where Mayo is after a slow start. It wouldn't shock me if he takes off with a power explosion and ends the year as a top 50 in baseball prospect. I'm not betting on that, but I think it's at least possible.

[Tony-OH]

Another thing to remember is Mayo would be college sophomore right now. 

[LookinUp]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Another thing to remember is Mayo would be college sophomore right now. 

I'm still buying into what you were saying in the offseason. Mayo's a stud prospect. His Aberdeen stats haven't changed my opinion.

[LTO's]

Caleb

2:40

How excited should O’s fans be about Coby Mayo hitting AA already? Also, Is Gunnar Henderson a GUY?

 

Keith Law

2:41

I didn't understand that promotion, although the others all made sense. He wasn't actually playing that well until the last 7-8 games, and then went on a little tear, but it obscured some of the approach issues I'd seen earlier in the year. Not saying he can't figure it out, but I don't think the move up was justified by the production or how he looked doing it.

[RZNJ]

Keith Law could be right but pretty hard to believe he watches so many Aberdeen games that he has a good handle on his approach.   He mentions seeing him earlier in the year.  Okay, so have you seen him since then?   Also Connor Norby was struggling and striking out a ton lately.    Interesting that he sees his promotion has justified but not Mayo's.   Just saying.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Keith Law could be right but pretty hard to believe he watches so many Aberdeen games that he has a good handle on his approach.   He mentions seeing him earlier in the year.  Okay, so have you seen him since then?   Also Connor Norby was struggling and striking out a ton lately.    Interesting that he sees his promotion has justified but not Mayo's.   Just saying.

Well, he rated Norby high for the draft last year, so there’s that.