Heston Kjerstad 2022

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I didn't say direct comp.

Like I said it's funny to me.

You hardly ever see anyone compared to the David Seguis of the baseball world.

I could picture Kjerstad as a David Segui-like first baseman for the O's.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Thanks, @Tony-OH.  On a related subject, any idea when you plan to start releasing your top 30 this year?  Can’t wait!

I'm working on gathering the data now and talking to folks. So hopefully by the end of October I'll start releasing them. 

I know others will release quicker, but I have process to follow so I can try and be the most accurate.

Here's a nugget though!

....

 

....

 

....

Gunnar Henderson is going to be #1    

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm working on gathering the data now and talking to folks. So hopefully by the end of October I'll start releasing them. 

I know others will release quicker, but I have process to follow so I can try and be the most accurate.

Worth the wait.  

Jon Meoli, who’s been doing the BA list since fall 2017, wrote a piece today where he reviewed his first list and how he did.  He concluded that he did pretty well in ordering the prospects but had everyone about a half-grade too high.   He mused that he may just have been too generous, or it couid be that the O’s player development techniques in those days weren’t as good and the players consequently didn’t reach their full potential.   Interesting food for thought.  
 

 

Edited October 14, 2022 by Frobby

[UMDTerrapins]

Haven’t been following this thread, but to be shut down for as long as he was, I’m still not putting much weight in what he did this year, or is doing this fall. It’s a full mulligan year. Next year is a whole other story and I’m looking forward to seeing the guy who was deemed worthy of a #2 pick. That said, it sure is nice to see him putting up numbers in the AFL. 

[CharmCityHokie]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, you gave him a current grade of ????, future grade of 55.   So, the uncertainty of his current speed was made clear in your grade, even though you were more bullish on his future grade.   Obviously you’ve got a better basis for grades now.  

But how slow can he be if they’re giving him reps in CF?   I realize it’s just the Fall League, but still, it feels like they wouldn’t waste his time if he were Trey Mancini out there.  
 

DJ Stewart got 5 starts in CF in the minors...

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

DJ Stewart got 5 starts in CF in the minors...

As I recall, he did not get hit in the head with any flyballs in any of those starts, so pretty good there.

[btdart20]

Big Hype Prospects: Veen, Sheehan, Kjerstad, Mervis, McLain - MLB Trade Rumors

MLBTR has a blurb on a few AFL guys.  One of them Kjerstad.  Nothing earth-shattering though they reference the higher K rate.

The second-overall pick of the weird 2020 draft, Kjerstad missed all of 2021 due to heart inflammation. He finally made his minor league debut this season. He steamrolled Low-A pitchers in 98 plate appearances then struggled versus High-A opponents. Since he’s missed so much time, his performance in the AFL will have more influence on how evaluators view him than most other participants. Presently, he’s tied for the league lead with three home runs. Notably, he’s also struck out 10 times which is right on par with his strikeout rate in High-A.

[Frobby]

1 for 4 last night but with 3 strikeouts, making it 13 K’s in 44 PA.  He’s carrying a .462 BABIP right now, hence the .357 BA despite a 29.5% K rate.  

[Can_of_corn]

On 10/14/2022 at 4:12 PM, btdart20 said:

Big Hype Prospects: Veen, Sheehan, Kjerstad, Mervis, McLain - MLB Trade Rumors

MLBTR has a blurb on a few AFL guys.  One of them Kjerstad.  Nothing earth-shattering though they reference the higher K rate.

The second-overall pick of the weird 2020 draft, Kjerstad missed all of 2021 due to heart inflammation. He finally made his minor league debut this season. He steamrolled Low-A pitchers in 98 plate appearances then struggled versus High-A opponents. Since he’s missed so much time, his performance in the AFL will have more influence on how evaluators view him than most other participants. Presently, he’s tied for the league lead with three home runs. Notably, he’s also struck out 10 times which is right on par with his strikeout rate in High-A.

Fangraphs had a quick blurb on Kjerstad and another name I see a lot around here.

Quote

Heston Kjerstad is 14 for 38 with four doubles and three home runs for the Scottsdale Scorpions. The 23-year-old outfielder was drafted second overall by the Baltimore Orioles in 2020 out of the University of Arkansas.

Austin Martin is 13 for 28 with two doubles and one home run for the Glendale Desert Dogs. Drafted fifth overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2020 out of Vanderbilt University, the 23-year-old shortstop was traded to the Minnesota Twins in July 2021 as part of the José Berríos deal.

 

[sportsfan8703]

His numbers on the year, if you include the AFL, look really similar to his last full season at Arkansas before the Pandemic. Homers are down a bit, but that’s not shocking. 
 

I’m excited about what he can do next year. Hopefully, they start him in Bowie, just so he can avoid the pitcher’s park that Aberdeen seems to have become. Age isn’t a issue with this guy. He’ll get a full, much stronger, season in next year and I would not be surprised to see him put up #2 pick type numbers. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

His numbers on the year, if you include the AFL, look really similar to his last full season at Arkansas before the Pandemic. Homers are down a bit, but that’s not shocking. 
 

I’m excited about what he can do next year. Hopefully, they start him in Bowie, just so he can avoid the pitcher’s park that Aberdeen seems to have become. Age isn’t a issue with this guy. He’ll get a full, much stronger, season in next year and I would not be surprised to see him put up #2 pick type numbers. 

I think they’ll start him at Bowie so long as his AFL performance remains good.  

[DirtyBird]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

His numbers on the year, if you include the AFL, look really similar to his last full season at Arkansas before the Pandemic. Homers are down a bit, but that’s not shocking. 
 

I’m excited about what he can do next year. Hopefully, they start him in Bowie, just so he can avoid the pitcher’s park that Aberdeen seems to have become. Age isn’t a issue with this guy. He’ll get a full, much stronger, season in next year and I would not be surprised to see him put up #2 pick type numbers. 

He played 43 games with Aberdeen this season. Bowie was going to be his minimum starting point next season.

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

He played 43 games with Aberdeen this season. Bowie was going to be his minimum starting point next season.

I think Bowie was going to be his maximum starting point next year and it looks like he will start there.   With a .673 OPS at Aberdeen there was a chance he might return there but I think it was less than 50/50.    I don't think the AFL means a whole lot but you could certainly make the argument that the pitching is about High A level.   I think they would have started him at Bowie with or without the AFL performance but there was never a chance he would have skipped Bowie to start next year.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

His numbers on the year, if you include the AFL, look really similar to his last full season at Arkansas before the Pandemic. Homers are down a bit, but that’s not shocking. 
 

I’m excited about what he can do next year. Hopefully, they start him in Bowie, just so he can avoid the pitcher’s park that Aberdeen seems to have become. Age isn’t a issue with this guy. He’ll get a full, much stronger, season in next year and I would not be surprised to see him put up #2 pick type numbers. 

Age is always an issue.

[Fiver6565]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Age is always an issue.

If you are comparing two players at the same level, then sure, age is an issue.  But its not an issue to me if a guy comes up a year older than others (ie if Kjerstad is 25 instead of 24 or even 23 when he debuts).  Most of these players are not going to be here past their arb years anyway.  So who cares if they are 29 at that point, or 31?  They'll be moving on and getting a deal somewhere else at that point anyway, in all likelihood.  If anything them coming up at 24 means we get their prime years; someone like Gunnar might be done here just as he's hitting his age 28 season.....