Heston Kjerstad 2022

[RZNJ]

32 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is there a threshhold for K% where we should all be concerned that a player will not be successful at the MLB level. I sense it is a moving target but a rough estimate of >25% seems like it might be a good round number. I know its different for power hitters but he's got some swing and miss to his game.

I would say 25% is a pretty good cutoff.   Stowers was up around 30% in 2021.  He was around 25% in 2022 in the minors.  Westburg was slight above 25% at Bowie but around 22% at Norfolk.   Kjerstad was at 25% at Aberdeen.    Norby made better contact as he rose through the levels last year.  24%, 20%, 12% (SSS).    Ortiz was 17% at AA and 15% at AAA.    Cowser was 28%, 25%, 31%.    What does it all mean?    I don't really know but my instincts would tell me that Ortiz and Norby are the best bets to succeed at the ML level but it seems like Westburg, Cowser, and Kjerstad have bigger upside.

Westburg might be the best combination of upside and making enough contact to reach his upside.

Edited November 1, 2022 by RZNJ

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I would say 25% is a pretty good cutoff.   Stowers was up around 30% in 2021.  He was around 25% in 2022 in the minors.  Westburg was slight above 25% at Bowie but around 22% at Norfolk.   Kjerstad was at 25% at Aberdeen.    Norby made better contact as he rose through the levels last year.  24%, 20%, 12% (SSS).    Ortiz was 17% at AA and 15% at AAA.    Cowser was 28%, 25%, 31%.    What does it all mean?    I don't really know but my instincts would tell me that Ortiz and Norby are the best bets to succeed at the ML level but it seems like Westburg, Cowser, and Kjerstad have bigger upside.

Westburg might be the best combination of upside and making enough contact to reach his upside.

Joey Gallo was over 30% in a lot of his minor league stops so he's be a fair example of the upper limit that could still succeed in the majors.

Of course I don't expect Kjerstad to provide as much value on defense as Gallo has.

[OriolesMagic83]

I'm just happy that Kjerstad was deemed healthy and fit enough to play in the AFL after playing most of the season after an early injury.  It's a bonus that his power seems to be coming back and he is still hitting for high average.  We can worry about the high strikeouts in the future. 

[RZNJ]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Joey Gallo was over 30% in a lot of his minor league stops so he's be a fair example of the upper limit that could still succeed in the majors.

Of course I don't expect Kjerstad to provide as much value on defense as Gallo has.

Joey Gallo also hit over 40 homers two years in a row in the minors and was basically on a 40 homer pace each year in the minors and then hit over 40 his first two years in the minors.   He's pretty unique.

I hope and expect Kjerstad to be a better pure hitter than Gallo without quite as much raw power.    Basically, I expect and suspect that Kjerstad will be more like a Santander (2022) type of hitter.

[sevastras]

I don’t care if they strike out 30% of the time as long as they get a hit 27% of the time and of that 27%, 12% is for extra base hits. And I would prefer if 3+ out of every 10 plate appearances lead to an on base. Beyond that, I prefer a K to a gidp. 
My point is, numbers aren’t what they use to be and if you hit .307 with a 12% strike out rate and 30 home runs in this day and age, you may get a lot of votes for MVP.   Then again, if you hit .250 with 59 home runs and a 25% strike out rate, you may have the MVP wrapped up. 

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, sevastras said:

I don’t care if they strike out 30% of the time as long as they get a hit 27% of the time and of that 27%, 12% is for extra base hits. And I would prefer if 3+ out of every 10 plate appearances lead to an on base. Beyond that, I prefer a K to a gidp. 
My point is, numbers aren’t what they use to be and if you hit .307 with a 12% strike out rate and 30 home runs in this day and age, you may get a lot of votes for MVP.   Then again, if you hit .250 with 59 home runs and a 25% strike out rate, you may have the MVP wrapped up. 

I’d say the concern is, if a guy is striking out 30% of the time against HiA/AA pitching, what’s it going to be when he reaches the majors?

There were 55 players last year with a K% above 30% in at least 150 PA.  Of those, 9 had a wRC+ of 110 or higher, which is where you’d want a bat-first guy like Kjerstad to be.  So, it’s not impossible to be an above average bat while striking out 30% of the time or more, but it’s not easy either.  The 9 were:

Heston Kiura, 41.7% K rate, 115 wRC+

Trayce Thompson, 36.5%, 142

JD Davis, 33.4%, 119

David Villar, 32.0%, 124

Seby Zavala, 31.2%, 111

Eugenio Suarez, 31.2%, 131

Jake Burger, 30.6%, 113

Byron Buxton, 30.4%, 136

Giancarlo Stanton, 30.3%, 115

Stated another way, there wete 132 players with a wRC+ of 110 or higher, and only 9 of those had a K rate of 30% or higher.

So, the strikeouts are something to watch with Kjerstad.  

[btdart20]

I'd say there's another factor in the balance as well.  Yes, ample HH%/ISO/SLG must justify the K%.  But that's also an unstable floor that's tough to really count on regularly.  Hiura above is a great example of someone who can have great years if they find holes.  Hiura's rookie year saw a .404 babip and Milwaukee fans saw visions of a sugar plums!  Similar story for Buxton and high Babips vs. more "sustainable" means of getting on base (but his HH% raising the ceiling a bit more too).  Without the high Babip, they can be terrible holes in the line-up. 

These types of hitters need the stabilizing factor of not chasing bad pitches (i.e. higher BB%).  A .199 BA is more palatable when it's paired with a .351 OBP like Gallo's 2021 season (and his pre/post-trade splits are even more magnified).  But when he's the .160/.280 guy... well the sweet little girl with the little curl in the middle of her forehead was horrid at times too.

Moral of the story is the importance of the 'swing decision'.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

On 10/31/2022 at 4:05 PM, Jim'sKid26 said:

While I agree with you, what specifically makes you say that? I think he will hit better in Bowie due to the better hitting environment, as opposed to Aberdeen, but his strike outs are rather worrisome. Even with the power. 

Does the performance in the AFL mean any more than say, Spring Training-for example, given what we know about the quality of the pitching in 2022 AFL?

With the quality of pitching being down by all accounts in the AFL this year, the strikeouts are a yellow flag in my opinion. 

Either way, if healthy, I imagine he will start 2023 in Bowie and we'll have a better idea of who he is after next season.

[Jim'sKid26]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

With the quality of pitching being down by all accounts in the AFL this year, the strikeouts are a yellow flag in my opinion. 

Either way, if healthy, I imagine he will start 2023 in Bowie and we'll have a better idea of who he is after next season.

I (and I am sure many others) am patiently waiting for your annual prospect review.  I am specifically interested in what you say about this young man.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Jim'sKid26
Grammar

[Sports Guy]

 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Good to hear but is this Callis' opinion or what he's hearing from scouts.  Callis isn't really an evaluator in the same vein as Law, as far as I know.  He's more of a compiler of scouting opinions.   I could be wrong but that's my understanding.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Good to hear but is this Callis' opinion or what he's hearing from scouts.  Callis isn't really an evaluator in the same vein as Law, as far as I know.  He's more of a compiler of scouting opinions.   I could be wrong but that's my understanding.

Yea I’m not sure. I would agree with your assessment though.

There are no other tweets or any other context.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Good to hear but is this Callis' opinion or what he's hearing from scouts.  Callis isn't really an evaluator in the same vein as Law, as far as I know.  He's more of a compiler of scouting opinions.   I could be wrong but that's my understanding.

It’s just Callis’ opinion, given in a bit more detail in this Melewski interview.

“On opening day, I saw him hit a massive home run at Scottsdale Stadium,” said Callis. “The good news for Orioles fans is he looks like the guy, the No. 2 pick in the draft from a few years ago. He looks like the guy I thought was the best left-handed college power hitter in that draft. I had seen him at the College World Series in the past and he’s got big left-handed power. It's power over hit (tool). He’s got about a 30 percent strikeout rate in the Fall League. He’s always had some strikeouts but still managed to hit for average if that makes sense.

“He looks like the type of guy that could hit .260 with maybe 30 homers. He’s not a blazing runner or anything, but he moves well enough. He’s got a strong arm. I haven’t talked to the Orioles since I’ve seen him, but I have to think they are quite pleased with how he’s looked.”

There’s a bit more to the interview than what I’ve quoted.   

[LookinUp]

If he can make contact, and assuming our other OF prospects develop into major league regulars, it really seems like an eventual fit for 1B if he can catch the ball.

[Can_of_corn]

Kjerstad and Denoyer made the All-star game.

Before anyone gets too excited they will be joined by Jasson Dominguez, who put up a .167/.288/.229 line. 

Kjerstad will also be appearing in the HR derby.

https://www.mlb.com/news/arizona-fall-league-2022-fall-stars-game-rosters?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage