Drew Hutchison?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

I didn't say they would be worse relievers than they were starters.

I said that if the Orioles starters are near the bottom of the league in performance on average....  one might expect that when they fail as starters and become relievers, that they might also be near the bottom of the league in performance on average. Because they were of substandard quality to start with.

In other words, a higher quality starter on a stacked team who doesn't quite have the stuff to crack the rotation (and ends up in the pen), ought to be a better reliever than a starter who can't crack the rotation on a team with a terrible starting five.

This really isn't that complicated a concept.

Most teams don’t take high quality starters that can’t crack a rotation and turn them into relievers unless it’s in the playoffs and they have other starters to turn to.  They trade them for other areas of need.

Most relievers who were once starters were failed starters and a failed starter is a failed starter, no matter the team or system.

[owknows]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Most teams don’t take high quality starters that can’t crack a rotation and turn them into relievers.  They trade them for other areas of need.

Most relievers who were once starters were failed starters and a failed starter is a failed starter, no matter the team or system.

I think I'll just accept the fact that you believe you'll spontaneously combust if you concede anything positive about the Orioles, and leave it at that.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Means did a lot of good things at one of the training facilities and Holt had nothing to do with it.

Wells is still a SSS and his K rates and lack of missed bats could pose a problem. So, he’s a wait and see and not someone you can say for certainty.  ..not yet.

Holt taught Means his changeup.

Wells has said that he is pitching to contact on purpose to lower pitch count and go deeper in games.  He struck out more has a closer because he wasn't pitching many innings.  But as a starter its improve to go deeper in games.   Smart guy IMO.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, owknows said:

I think I'll just accept the fact that you believe you'll spontaneously combust if you concede anything positive about the Orioles, and leave it at that.

Lol.  We can only hope.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Holt taught Means his changeup.

Wells has said that he is pitching to contact on purpose to lower pitch count and go deeper in games.  He struck out more has a closer because he was pitching many innings.  But as a starter it improve to go deeper in games.   Smart guy IMO.

 

That strategy isn’t going to work for him long term.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That strategy isn’t going to work for him long term.

Probably will work as long as he has a good defense behind him.

[MGH5208]

17 minutes ago, owknows said:

I think I'll just accept the fact that you believe you'll spontaneously combust if you concede anything positive about the Orioles, and leave it at that.

 

Nice try and I agree with alot of what you posted but Beavis and Butthead will never change their minds

[BohKnowsBmore]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Lyles is at -.4 rWAR with an ERA over 5 and a WHIP over 1.5 and on pace for ~170 IP.

That isn't much out of line with what I was expecting.

Depends which flavor of WAR you go with... Fangraphs has him at positive 1.0 fWAR on the year thus far.

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, owknows said:

I didn't say they would be worse relievers than they were starters.

I said that if the Orioles starters are near the bottom of the league in performance on average....  one might expect that when they fail as starters and become relievers, that they might also be near the bottom of the league in performance on average. Because they were of substandard quality to start with.

In other words, a higher quality starter on a stacked team who doesn't quite have the stuff to crack the rotation (and ends up in the pen), ought to be a better reliever than a starter who can't crack the rotation on a team with a terrible starting five.

This really isn't that complicated a concept.

The missing factor is that only having 1 double plus pitch can make a starter a failure.  But it can also make that same guy a HOF reliever with the most saves ever (Rivera).  
 

That’s what the O’s have done (and all teams).  They’re looking for something special for their bullpen arms.  It doesn’t matter what (slider, cutter, curve…).  

[Can_of_corn]

13 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Depends which flavor of WAR you go with... Fangraphs has him at positive 1.0 fWAR on the year thus far.

Was why I specified the flavor I was citing.  With fWar being fWAR I'm not shocked to hear he's at 1.0.

 

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Was why I specified the flavor I was citing.  With fWar being fWAR I'm not shocked to hear he's at 1.0.

 

I haven’t paid attention to how fWAR may have been modified recently, but it used to rely pretty heavily on FIP.  Right now Lyles has a 4.41 FIP compared to his 5.10 ERA.   However, Statcast’s xERA has him at 5.26.   I prefer that measure to FIP because it takes quality of contact into account.   All that is a long winded way of me saying, I think rWAR is closer to reality than fWAR in this case.   I think Lyles is just about meeting my expectations, which weren’t very high.  I’d like to see him lasting 6+ a bit more often (4 out of 13 times so far compared to 18 of 32 last year), but that may be Hyde’s doing.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I haven’t paid attention to how fWAR may have been modified recently, but it used to rely pretty heavily on FIP.  Right now Lyles has a 4.41 FIP compared to his 5.10 ERA.   However, Statcast’s xERA has him at 5.26.   I prefer that measure to FIP because it takes quality of contact into account.   All that is a long winded way of me saying, I think rWAR is closer to reality than fWAR in this case.   I think Lyles is just about meeting my expectations, which weren’t very high.  I’d like to see him lasting 6+ a bit more often (4 out of 13 times so far compared to 18 of 32 last year), but that may be Hyde’s doing.

He’s a guy that some were saying we should pick up the option and not trade.

You don’t do that.  You trade him in a heartbeat.

[connja]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s a guy that some were saying we should pick up the option and not trade.

You don’t do that.  You trade him in a heartbeat.

I seriously doubt we get an offer of any value for him, and there is no reason to just give him away.  He's doing exactly what they brought him here to do.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, connja said:

I seriously doubt we get an offer of any value for him, and there is no reason to just give him away.  He's doing exactly what they brought him here to do.

Saving money is the reason to “give him away”. May get a Cashner like return for him.

Having him eat the innings the rest of the year is valuable too though.

[jabba72]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s a guy that some were saying we should pick up the option and not trade.

You don’t do that.  You trade him in a heartbeat.

Unless tanking is the goal no one is giving up talent in return for Lyles. The 2018 fire sale and the majority if Elias trades have shown that.