Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Listening to Keith Law's latest podcast, he had Eric Longenhagen on.  Eric pays lots of attention to batted ball data and noted that Druw Jones seems to have an issue with pulling good fastballs.  He said that he hasn't seen one instance where he has been able to do it.  This is problematic, he said, unless you know that your development people can tweak his swing to fix the problem.  Something to keep in mind going forward.

We have heard this mentioned before iirc.

The question is, are people looking too hard to tear him down or is it a legit worry?  Is it a problem since he is so young or is this something that carries over On a regular basis!  How easy is it to fix?

All of these players are high school kids.  They all have a lot of growth and development left.  Sometimes I wonder if the nitpicking gets too extreme.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We have heard this mentioned before iirc.

The question is, are people looking too hard to tear him down or is it a legit worry?  Is it a problem since he is so young or is this something that carries over On a regular basis!  How easy is it to fix?

All of these players are high school kids.  They all have a lot of growth and development left.  Sometimes I wonder if the nitpicking gets too extreme.

Obviously it's a legit worry but it might not be a big problem.  I doubt that it is. It's been said that his best power right now is to RCF so I think it's more a tweak and experience as opposed to he doesn't have the bat speed to catch up to high end velocity.  He's a kid who is also most likely get much stronger over the next 2-3 years.

[baltfan]

51 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Obviously it's a legit worry but it might not be a big problem.  I doubt that it is. It's been said that his best power right now is to RCF so I think it's more a tweak and experience as opposed to he doesn't have the bat speed to catch up to high end velocity.  He's a kid who is also most likely get much stronger over the next 2-3 years.

The Orioles undoubtedly have something in their model to account for these types of situations.  I am sure they will let the history of guys that fell into this bucket dictate in part their decision.  But, if you are drafting 1:1, this is definitely an important thing to consider.  

[LookinUp]

Interestingly, Andruw Jones' offensive profile kind of reminded me of our own Adam Jones. Powerful and good overall, but not a high OBP guy and always a guy who seemed to have trouble laying off that slider low and away.

Looking quickly at BBref, Andruw Jones career OPS+ was 111. Adam Jones was 106. Andruw's career OBP was 337. Adam's was .317. Andruw's career OPS was .823. Adam's was .771.

So maybe similar, but Andruw was clearly the better offensive player (and defensive too).

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Interestingly, Andruw Jones' offensive profile kind of reminded me of our own Adam Jones. Powerful and good overall, but not a high OBP guy and always a guy who seemed to have trouble laying off that slider low and away.

Looking quickly at BBref, Andruw Jones career OPS+ was 111. Adam Jones was 106. Andruw's career OBP was 337. Adam's was .317. Andruw's career OPS was .823. Adam's was .771.

So maybe similar, but Andruw was clearly the better offensive player (and defensive too).

And Adam Jones played in a better hitters park.

[LTO's]

2 hours ago, baltfan said:

Listening to Keith Law's latest podcast, he had Eric Longenhagen on.  

Highly recommend this podcast ep to all interested in the draft. Very informative. They had a nice back and forth on Johnson vs Holliday. Also, seems like Jones has the highest upside but is anything but a sure thing. Those who fall in love with the top guy on mock drafts might disappointed come draft day. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

Listening to Keith Law's latest podcast, he had Eric Longenhagen on.  Eric pays lots of attention to batted ball data and noted that Druw Jones seems to have an issue with pulling good fastballs.  He said that he hasn't seen one instance where he has been able to do it.  This is problematic, he said, unless you know that your development people can tweak his swing to fix the problem.  Something to keep in mind going forward.

No pull-side power, but the 'inside-out' power the other way is there.  Is that the take?  I really struggle with this a "bad thing" because that's exactly the swing that Trout strives for.  Maybe I've got blinders, but it's not like he's getting beat with FBs.  He's hitting them hard to RCF.

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

No pull-side power, but the 'inside-out' power the other way is there.  Is that the take?  I really struggle with this a "bad thing" because that's exactly the swing that Trout strives for.  Maybe I've got blinders, but it's not like he's getting beat with FBs.  He's hitting them hard to RCF.

Who was it last year in the minors that wasn't pulling any of his HR?  Was it Henderson?  Mayo?

I don't think it's a deal breaker if someone is showing oppo power and not pull power as a young hitter. 

 

On a slight tangent, I wonder how much a "slow bat" can be fixed by quicker pitch recognition?

Edited July 6, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Highly recommend this podcast ep to all interested in the draft. Very informative. They had a nice back and forth on Johnson vs Holliday. Also, seems like Jones has the highest upside but is anything but a sure thing. Those who fall in love with the top guy on mock drafts might disappointed come draft day. 

The further along we get in this process, I think Holliday is the other guy that would be a really nice pick at 1.  I think there is a dropoff after him and Jones.

BTW, I think Green could also be in the mix here, it just depends on what you feel about the swing and miss.

[LookinUp]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How was it last year in the minors that wasn't pulling any of his HR?  Was it Henderson?  Mayo?

I don't think it's a deal breaker if someone is showing oppo power and not pull power as a young hitter. 

 

On a slight tangent, I wonder how much a "slow bat" can be fixed by quicker pitch recognition?

It was Henderson.

Freddie Freeman is also famous for his left center approach.

[LTO's]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The further along we get in this process, I think Holliday is the other guy that would be a really nice pick at 1.  I think there is a dropoff after him and Jones.

BTW, I think Green could also be in the mix here, it just depends on what you feel about the swing and miss.

Holliday is my guy. I think he is just as good of a hitter as Johnson and will be the superior defensive player. Love the bloodlines too

[btdart20]

And now that my brain is going along these paths...  Scouts have their types/profiles too.  Law has been relatively low on Henderson (behind Adam Hall).  And Fangraphs has Gunnar ranked 22nd currently.  So maybe Law/Longenhagen's type is max velo and pull-side power.  Which could explain his concerns with Jones... 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Holliday is my guy. I think he is just as good of a hitter as Johnson and will be the superior defensive player. Love the bloodlines too

Yea, I think he and Jones are absolute no brainers over Johnson.

What I like about Holliday (or one of the things I like) is that he seems to be destined for a premium position defensively, even if he can't stay at SS.  I like the fall back options he has.

[Flash- bd]

On 7/5/2022 at 4:03 PM, Can_of_corn said:

 

The thing is, he's positioned himself to have fabulous draft positions.

You give any GM a 1-1, 1-2, 1-5 set of drafts and the results should look solid.

The question is, are they as are good as they would have been if he had played the last two conventionally?

We don't know.

 

Yeah, I'm taking that into account when I praise the 19-20 drafts. Even for draft position, Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, and Hernaiz is a really impressive haul from a draft, compare that to other 1:1 hauls and I don't think you'll find much better...to get 2 prospects the level of Rutschman and Gunnar in one draft is really extremely rare, and on top of that you have a hit on Stowers and, early to say still, but potentially Hernaiz. I'm not @DrungoHazewoodbut we could be talking like 99th percentile level success here. 

2020 looks similarly impressive, and the decision to go for Kjerstad looks quite shrewd given how the other options for that pick are looking, and given the players we got at above slot later. Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo, and Baumler again is a really impressive haul, if not quite 2019 level, though probably a weaker draft class in comparison should be taken into consideration. Again, 3 top 10 prospects from a draft--with another who has potential to be top 10 at the end of this season--is impressive, no matter what your pick placement (1:2 and 1:30), and could be even more impressive if Kjerstad continues to hit at higher levels ( / if we hadn't had the bad luck with myocarditis and covid there). 

I think the question, more than the one you posed, is: did the team do a good job with the picks they had, compared to what can reasonably be expected with that pick haul? 

At this early stage the answer to that question has to range either from a resounding yes to a "FUCKING HELL WHAT AMAZING DRAFTS, what a daft question," depending on your personality. 

Either way, like I said, considering what resounding successes the first two drafts look liked--even while taking into consideration advantageous pick haul--I'm really rather surprised at the attitude toward Elias' drafting and lack of faith in his processes. 

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

I am 100% on board with the Adley/Gunnar class looking like a round one knockout level draft.

There was almost universal acclaim for both picks from the get go.  I don't recall anyone having an issue with Gunnar.

 

But that won't stop the arguments since Adley was the BPA. 

 

Here is a fun link for each team's best draft class (according to the authors).

Cal Ripken, Larry Sheets and Mike Boddicker all in the same class is pretty good.

https://www.mlb.com/news/best-mlb-draft-classes-for-each-team