Let’s Be Buyers

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, ChuckS said:

Not sure how you could be so sure of yourself regarding a player who is just getting his feet wet in Double A.

He could be up at some point next year. He could not be. But if he is, likely to be in the second half of the season.

Stowers and Vavra are the guys I’m looking to make room for right now. 

He was an Elias top pick out of college who is already in AA.  Elias isn’t going to want to keep him down.  There is no reason to unless he is awful and I don’t think he’s going to be awful.  
 

[sportsfan8703]

Sell Mancini

Buy a SP like Lamet from SD, or Quintana from Pitt. 

That is what are trade deadline activity looks like now.  

Rosters expand to 28 on Sept 1. Matt Harvey and DL Hall are internal options for SP now. We could piece together the rotation over the next 6-7 weeks until rosters expand and we can call up extra arms on 9/1. 

[ChuckS]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He was an Elias top pick out of college who is already in AA.  Elias isn’t going to want to keep him down.  There is no reason to unless he is awful and I don’t think he’s going to be awful.  
 

Lot of variables. Not as simple as, if he’s not awful he will be up in 2023. 

Stowers was an Elias top pick as well. He’s 24.5 and still toiling away in Norfolk despite a .900 OPS. Vavra is 25….also an Elias pickup. There has to be a combination of good performance and openings on the major league roster. Neither are guaranteed for Cowser next year.  

[waroriole]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Sell Mancini

Buy a SP like Lamet from SD, or Quintana from Pitt. 

That is what are trade deadline activity looks like now.  

Rosters expand to 28 on Sept 1. Matt Harvey and DL Hall are internal options for SP now. We could piece together the rotation over the next 6-7 weeks until rosters expand and we can call up extra arms on 9/1. 

Look at AAA. There’s not many guys you can call up in September. Even if there were, rosters only expand to 28 now. 

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s also remember that Cowser will be in Baltimore next year too, unless he is hurt.

You are going to need to make room and the reality is that you can make the room now.

Cowser might be in Baltimore at some point next summer.   I’d say it’s not a certainty, and in any event probably wouldn’t happen until midseason.  Hopefully he continues his early success at Bowie after struggling at times at Aberdeen.   He has some shot at getting to Norfolk before this year is over, but will have to perform very well the next 7 weeks or so to do that.  I’d put the odds of that promotion happening at under 50%.   

[oriole]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think for most of us the idea of being a buyer is to set the team up starting in 2023.

Sometime over the next month, assuming health and continued performance (or close to it), the Orioles will bring up Westburg, Henderson, Vavra, Stowers and Diaz…and in the pitching side, Hall will be up…perhaps Baumann back up if he keeps pitching well.

Gone will/should be Odor, Mancini, Santander and perhaps others.  Maybe a guy like Urias, who I still like and feels can have a good role in 2023, would be part of a trade for a pitcher.

We should really get a good view of those guys heading into the offseason.

Its hard to expect a lineup of homegrown players to be successful but I think it’s fair to assume, unless trades occur, that they Os go into next year with Rutschman, Mountcastle, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers, Hays and Mullins all starting.  That leaves us with the need for one IFer (that could be Vavra, it just depends on where you play Henderson and Westburg) and someone to DH.  Diaz could be in that role and your 4th OFer.  But there likely will be room to add a bat somewhere.

I don’t think the Os, again unless they make a trade with some of these guys in it, will block any of those guys for 2023.

Pitching wise, for 2023, if healthy should see Hall, GROd and Wells in the rotation.  Means is back at some point.  Bradish is a mystery. No one else is really likely cracking the rotation.

So, I think it’s fair to say you need to add 2 starters heading into next year. Nothing wrong with going out and getting those guys right now.

Mancini and Santander aren’t going to get anyone more of a better candidate for the 2023 rotation than guys like Bradish or Kremer. They’re gonna need to make a move in free agency for that unless we’re talking about moving Hays or Mullins…which is unlikely I feel. 

[sportsfan8703]

16 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Look at AAA. There’s not many guys you can call up in September. Even if there were, rosters only expand to 28 now. 

Vespi and Baumann would help. They’ve already helped this season. We don’t need world beaters, we just need guys to eat B side innings. Bradish and Zimmerman too. 

Edited July 8, 2022 by sportsfan8703

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

Lot of variables. Not as simple as, if he’s not awful he will be up in 2023. 

Stowers was an Elias top pick as well. He’s 24.5 and still toiling away in Norfolk despite a .900 OPS. Vavra is 25….also an Elias pickup. There has to be a combination of good performance and openings on the major league roster. Neither are guaranteed for Cowser next year.  

Stowers was a third rounder.  Big difference.

[JimGinSP]

5 hours ago, Jagwar said:

When has that ever happened? Not trying to be snarky, just wondering if a team has ever approached the deadline as a buyer and a seller and successfully pulled off trades. 

Last year Seattle and Houston made a trade that helped both teams achieve short and long term goals.  
From BBRef: July 27, 2021: Abraham Toro traded by the Houston Astros with Joe Smith to the Seattle Mariners for Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero.

Seattle was a bit of a surprise contender and the fan base was infuriated in Dipoto trading the popular Graveman to Houston for Toro’s potential, but on July 28 the Mariners were 55-48 then went on to finish 90-72.  So 45-24, a sizzling .652 after the trade!  Went into the last weekend with a shot at the wildcard but missed out.  During that stretch, just for spice, Toro hit a grand slam off Graveman.

A few warnings to O’s fans, Seattle was 7 games ABOVE .500 when the trade was made.  We are excited with our 5 game winning streak that has put us 4 games UNDER.  In relation to the attendance thread Seattle really didn’t see an attendance jump until the last three games of their home schedule even though their last six were at home.

[Orioles4Life21]

Let’s sweep the Angels, take 2 of 3 from the Rays, head into the break 45-45 and likely3 or so games out of the wild card. Then we’ll talk about buying.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Buy a SP like Lamet from SD, or Quintana from Pitt. 

But not like a Lamet or Quintana.  Lamet is 29 and other than a few glimmers of hope, he's been a no show.  Quintana is a rental.  Elias should be shopping for someone younger with more team control.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Stowers was a third rounder.  Big difference.

Not really, once you have a couple of years of actual performance to go on.   

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not really, once you have a couple of years of actual performance to go on.   

Cowser is going to move faster.  As it is, Stowers is going to be here on basically the same path when you consider COVID.

But the #5 pick will and should move faster.  
 

If Cowser isn’t up in Baltimore by this time next year, he is either hurt or a failure.  An advanced college hitter taken high in the draft should move fast.

[Just Regular]

Fun times in Birdland!    If Adley keeps the magic carpet zooming three more weeks, I still don't think I'd feel much strategic zest for selling future Wins for present Wins (though if we traded Coby Mayo for Luis Castillo after banking another 15-6 stretch it wouldn't lack for entertainment value).

I would probably be fired up to see the tool of money deployed to rent pitchers for 8 weeks.    Out with Spenser Watkins, in with Noah Syndergaard.    Out with Joey Krehbiel, in with Mychal Givens, etc.    As at any Trade Deadline, there will be well-paid players on short-term contracts on Teams where "it didn't work this year", and if you just pick up the money you can boost a unit for nearly zero talent-wise.

In essence give out another 1-2 Jordan Lyles-ish $7M outlays, condensed to two months.     The investment might pay for itself if you make a lifelong friend (like, serious Hometown Discount lifelong friend) out of Trey Mancini (sorry, Kyle Stowers).    Never mind whatever 2022 playoff odds another 14-7 stretch and $14.7mm in cash might bring Adley's 0.75 part of his 6.75 years.

[Tony-OH]

Elias is focused on one goal, and that is making the Orioles an annual contender. 

Now, if they can trade Santander, Lyles, Mancini, Lopez or Tate for players that make that goal more reachable, then I think we could see them dealt.

Not in 1000 years do I see Elias trading any of his young players for rentals to chase the Wild Card this year.

The Orioles are playing great and they're fun to watch. They're playing the best sustained baseball we've seen in a long time.

Saying that, they are not true contenders this year so whatever moves Elias needs to make the 2023 team and beyond better. 

Rutschman is still getting his feet under him and it's doubtful our starting pitching is going to continue their great run, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I'd love to see the Orioles move Odor for just about anything. while he's a good clubhouse guy and has had his moments, Vavra and Westburg are knocking hard at the door for playing time at 2B on the big league squad. Henderson may need some PAs by late August and Stowers is probably as ready as he's going to be (K's and all).

I think this offseason is going to be the real moves for Elias. I could be wrong, but I'd be surprised if Elias made major moves at the trade deadline besides possibly moving Mancini or Santander.