Let’s Be Buyers

[ScGO's]

First, let me say, I was in the "Sell" Crowd, and I still have one foot in that room. 

However, last night's win got me thinking.

If the O's can win this series then run the table against weak Cincy, Texas, and Pirates teams following, is it inconceivable to think the O's could find themselves in 3rd place in the East and potentially holding the 3rd wildcard spot by the end of the Pittsburgh series? Especially with how Tampa and Boston are hurting too.

Problem is, Aug 2nd trade deadline is in the middle of that Texas series.  I think Elias has some very tough decisions to make.

One thing that I believe he has to stay committed to is not trading any top 30/40 Talent. I know the O's desperately need another SP, but I'm not giving up top of the system talent quite yet.

I also have to wonder if Elias is wondering if there really is low risk to his long term plans by standing pat with this season's roster, especially after a solid draft.  He may still have to look into trading Lopez, Santander, etc in the offseason to save some money and acquire more young talent, but if we made the playoffs, then they would have more peak value at that point.  Mancini walks for free, but we still save on his salary, and nobody had hard feelings from a trade and as he will choose a better contract that we can offer, so its all good in the end.

However, if they can acquire a salary relief starter or two for the Blaine Knights and Adam Halls of the system, then I think it should be pursued.  Also, don't sleep on Matt Harvey. If the bullpen stays this good, I think Harvey could find success in an Austin Voth type role. Also, any news on Gray Rod and potentially being back by Sept?

Very much a risk reward decision for Elias. I think he has all his lines and options open right up until that Aug 2nd date before making a move if he decides to make one at all

 

[DrungoHazewood]

28 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I'm not entertaining trading any of our top ten or so prospects. 

Bu there is no reason we can't be buyers and sellers if it helps us now and in the future.  If a package of two or three prospects in the 11-20 range can get us a number three starter for the next two or three years, I think we should consider it.  

You mean like acquiring #3 starter Bud Norris for Josh Hader, LJ Hoes, and a 2014 competitive balance pick? Or are we just trading 11-20 prospects that won't pan out?

[crowmst3k!]

22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't understand why we're entertaining trading prospects right now.  This is a roughly .500 team with multiple highly valuable players still in the minors.  It's very easy to get into a situation where the player you trade for is not only much more expensive and under team control for less time, but also not as good as the players you sent away.  Also, the Orioles are still very much longshots to even get to the 2022 playoffs.  

Don't lose focus on the goal.  The goal isn't a '22 lottery ticket.  It's being contenders for a long time to come.

I would not mind the Orioles trying to bolster the MLB roster to try and sneak into the playoffs. But, there's really no reason to dig deep into the prospect pool to make it happen.  

It will be interesting to see what kind of help Matt Harvey can give to the rotation once he is recalled. 

[ChuckS]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You mean like acquiring #3 starter Bud Norris for Josh Hader, LJ Hoes, and a 2014 competitive balance pick? Or are we just trading 11-20 prospects that won't pan out?

Well Hader and Hoes were in our top ten from what I recall and it was a much shallower system.  Apples and oranges I think.  When you have depth, you can trade from a place of strength.  We didn't have that at that time.  

Also, if I am dealing from the 11-20 range I would avoid including pitchers in those deals since that is where we lack depth. 

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, crowmst3k! said:

It will be interesting to see what kind of help Matt Harvey can give to the rotation once he is recalled. 

My first thought is none whatsoever, given that his ERA in 200 innings since the start of 2019 is 6.83, with a FIP of 5.41.

Over that period there have ben 214 major league pitchers who've thrown at least 150 innings.  Harvey is 214th in ERA+, ERA, and 213th in FIP.

He's thrown 14.2 innings in Norfolk and allowed 21 baserunners and four homers.

[Moose Milligan]

19 minutes ago, crowmst3k! said:

 

It will be interesting to see what kind of help Matt Harvey can give to the rotation once he is recalled. 

I'm getting the feeling that he won't be recalled anytime soon.  If he is, it'll be for a spot start due to injury or he has to start in a doubleheader or something.  If he gets recalled, it won't be for an extended stay.  He's simply not an option for any club, especially one like this who has an outside shot at a playoff berth.

[MCO'sFan]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't understand why we're entertaining trading prospects right now.  This is a roughly .500 team with multiple highly valuable players still in the minors.  It's very easy to get into a situation where the player you trade for is not only much more expensive and under team control for less time, but also not as good as the players you sent away.  Also, the Orioles are still very much longshots to even get to the 2022 playoffs.  

Don't lose focus on the goal.  The goal isn't a '22 lottery ticket.  It's being contenders for a long time to come.

I think we will start to see some prospects moved soon simply because of the numbers. We would have probably lost a decent prospect or two in this year's Rule V draft and will likely begin to lose them regularly unless we trade them first. Many of our prospects will need to be protected in this or next offseason. We can only stockpile them for so long. I would like to see the O's target some international slot money if they can find a team who is willing to part with it. 

Edited July 27, 2022 by MCO'sFan

[DrungoHazewood]

39 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

First, let me say, I was in the "Sell" Crowd, and I still have one foot in that room. 

However, last night's win got me thinking.

If the O's can win this series then run the table against weak Cincy, Texas, and Pirates teams following, is it inconceivable to think the O's could find themselves in 3rd place in the East and potentially holding the 3rd wildcard spot by the end of the Pittsburgh series? Especially with how Tampa and Boston are hurting too.

You're asking if it's inconceivable the Orioles end up in 3rd place after they've won nine in a row, 12 of 13, and 24 of their last 29 to be sitting on 60-49 after being 35-44?  No, not at all.  But I'm not sure you're asking about the right inconceivable thing...

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

I think we will start to see some prospects moved soon simply because of the numbers. We would have probably lost a decent prospect or two in this year's Rule V draft and will likely begin to lose them regularly unless we trade them first. Many of our prospects will need to be protected in this or next offseason. We can only stockpile them for so long. 

What decent prospects are likely to be lost in the Rule 5? Currently the 40-man includes Tyler Nevin, Ryan McKenna, Rougned Odor, Robinson Chirinos, soon-to-be free agent Trey Mancini, Jonathan Arauz, Louis Head, Denyi Reyes, Rico Garcia, Beau Sulser, and Chris Vallimont. You could release all of them at the end of the year, free up 11 spots for actual prospects, and have little or no impact to the competitiveness of the organization.

[MCO'sFan]

24 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

My first thought is none whatsoever, given that his ERA in 200 innings since the start of 2019 is 6.83, with a FIP of 5.41.

Over that period there have ben 214 major league pitchers who've thrown at least 150 innings.  Harvey is 214th in ERA+, ERA, and 213th in FIP.

He's thrown 14.2 innings in Norfolk and allowed 21 baserunners and four homers.

Yikes!! I didn't realize he had been this bad. 

[MCO'sFan]

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What decent prospects are likely to be lost in the Rule 5? Currently the 40-man includes Tyler Nevin, Ryan McKenna, Rougned Odor, Robinson Chirinos, soon-to-be free agent Trey Mancini, Jonathan Arauz, Louis Head, Denyi Reyes, Rico Garcia, Beau Sulser, and Chris Vallimont. You could release all of them at the end of the year, free up 11 spots for actual prospects, and have little or no impact to the competitiveness of the organization.

Well, you've caught me at a disadvantage as I am at work and can't actually look up the names. I completely agree with your point that there are guys that could be removed off the 40 man easily. This has been the case every year but  my point was simply as more of the prospects get to the higher levels and become R5 eligible the harder it will become to protect them all. We will begin to lose some "decent" prospects.  I am not saying we will lose difference makers. It's better to get something for them other than 100K or whatever it is now. 

[sportsfan8703]

We need a SP, and better bench production.  IF Donovan Solano from the Reds would be a good addition.  He's a RH vet that can play all over the IF, and could spell Odor vs LHP, or maybe just spell him period.  Vavra is LH too.  We definitely need an upgrade over Nevin.  With Urias back and entrenched as the 3B, Nevin really has no role.  We need to bring some power off the bench.  Internally that could be Stowers or Nottingham.  Nottingham would also allow us to PH for Chirnos when AR is DH'ing, or has the day off.  

It would be nice to add Solano to the IF, and a Pinch Hitter with power.  

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We need a SP, and better bench production.  IF Donovan Solano from the Reds would be a good addition.  He's a RH vet that can play all over the IF, and could spell Odor vs LHP, or maybe just spell him period.  Vavra is LH too.  We definitely need an upgrade over Nevin.  With Urias back and entrenched as the 3B, Nevin really has no role.  We need to bring some power off the bench.  Internally that could be Stowers or Nottingham.  Nottingham would also allow us to PH for Chirnos when AR is DH'ing, or has the day off.  

It would be nice to add Solano to the IF, and a Pinch Hitter with power.  

Agree that Nevin (and Arauz once he's off the DL) should be farmed out, but why trade for Donovan Solano when they can just promote Westburg?    

[deward]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You mean like acquiring #3 starter Bud Norris for Josh Hader, LJ Hoes, and a 2014 competitive balance pick? Or are we just trading 11-20 prospects that won't pan out?

It's worth mentioning that Norris was a reasonably valuable member of the rotation for the 2014 division champs. That trade looks bad now, with the hindsight of how Hader turned out, but I don't consider it indefensible at the time.

[Filmstudy]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't understand why we're entertaining trading prospects right now.  This is a roughly .500 team with multiple highly valuable players still in the minors.  It's very easy to get into a situation where the player you trade for is not only much more expensive and under team control for less time, but also not as good as the players you sent away.  Also, the Orioles are still very much longshots to even get to the 2022 playoffs.  

Don't lose focus on the goal.  The goal isn't a '22 lottery ticket.  It's being contenders for a long time to come.

Could not agree more.

The Orioles are also in the fortunate position to have their weakest current positions line up well with talent in the pipeline.  Dismantling the array of prospects they have would risk all of the time it has taken to build the farm system.