Rutschman vs Witt

[turtlebowl]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I was good with signing him or trading him.  His lack of maturity gave me pause.  That said, jogging down to first base in an AS is a non starter for me.  If he was busting his ass and hurt a hammy, that would have been terrible.

Well if we actually wanted to give him a pass because that is what we thought he was thinking then I suppose we could.  That is a reach though considering all the other athletes competing seemed to be okay with at least giving it much more effort than Manny.  If a professional athlete can't run a straight line for 90 feet at 80% effort because they are worried about pulling a hammy then maybe they shouldn't be playing a sport.  Truthfully we have all seen that this is what you get out of him 162, not just in exhibition games.

I used to try to defend the guy but I have just come to the conclusion that I just don't like what he stands for.  I always believed that if we did sign him he would of ended up being hated by the fan base considering the money he would of been paid and the effort he would of put out.  Most Baltimore fans are blue collar so his act would of quickly worn thin, especially if he was here and the team was losing.  

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Do you know how many people in the world can sit back there and catch the ball?  You think that makes it the most important position?

I think 99.99999% of people on this planet could not frame a 99 mph fastball and block an 89 mph slider in the dirt. I'm very confident in saying that. Regardless, you are grossly underestimating what a catcher is responsible for. Having an elite framing catcher can dramatically alter not only the course of a game but the course of a season. Baserunners, pitch counts, runners advancing to scoring position etc etc. You'd have to be blind to not see the difference between Adley and someone like Severino or Chirinos. No one's gonna argue that SS/CF/3B chances are not more difficult to make but the rate at which they have to make them is low. Much lower than what a catcher is tasked with. 

 

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

well guess what, the running game used to be more important.  Catchers used to always call their own games.  Now with analytics and stuff like that, they get told what to call, stolen bases aren’t as prevelant, etc…

Is Adley being told what to call? Multiple pitchers on the Orioles and I believe Hyde himself have talked up Adley's game calling. There might be a game plan but I think you are exaggerating a little.

Sure, steals are down but that's only a part of what catchers do. Meanwhile total defensive opportunities are down big time from only a decade ago and it continues to decline. SS chances are down over 20% from a decade ago. CF chances are down even more than that. The ball just isn't put in play that much anymore. Until the strike zone is automated, catchers are the most important defensive position by a pretty decent amount. You should put away your biases when actually looking at this and it will be pretty obvious. 

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

Well if we actually wanted to give him a pass because that is what we thought he was thinking then I suppose we could.  That is a reach though considering all the other athletes competing seemed to be okay with at least giving it much more effort than Manny.  If a professional athlete can't run a straight line for 90 feet at 80% effort because they are worried about pulling a hammy then maybe they shouldn't be playing a sport.  Truthfully we have all seen that this is what you get out of him 162, not just in exhibition games.

I used to try to defend the guy but I have just come to the conclusion that I just don't like what he stands for.  I always believed that if we did sign him he would of ended up being hated by the fan base considering the money he would of been paid and the effort he would of put out.  Most Baltimore fans are blue collar so his act would of quickly worn thin, especially if he was here and the team was losing.  

Did you have an issue with Eddie Murray?

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I think 99.99999% of people on this planet could not frame a 99 mph fastball and block an 89 mph slider in the dirt. I'm very confident in saying that. Regardless, you are grossly underestimating what a catcher is responsible for. Having an elite framing catcher can dramatically alter not only the course of a game but the course of a season. Baserunners, pitch counts, runners advancing to scoring position etc etc. You'd have to be blind to not see the difference between Adley and someone like Severino or Chirinos. No one's gonna argue that SS/CF/3B chances are not more difficult to make but the rate at which they have to make them is low. Much lower than what a catcher is tasked with. 

 

Is Adley being told what to call? Multiple pitchers on the Orioles and I believe Hyde himself have talked up Adley's game calling. There might be a game plan but I think you are exaggerating a little.

Sure, steals are down but that's only a part of what catchers do. Meanwhile total defensive opportunities are down big time from only a decade ago and it continues to decline. SS chances are down over 20% from a decade ago. CF chances are down even more than that. The ball just isn't put in play that much anymore. Until the strike zone is automated, catchers are the most important defensive position by a pretty decent amount. You should put away your biases when actually looking at this and it will be pretty obvious. 

Elite framing  catchers are important.  But the framing  stats are poor and noisy and not all that reliable. We don’t know how important it is or how much the elite framing guy is vs the average guy.  

Im not saying Adley isn’t an upgrade.  You are putting words in my mouth.  The discussion is the value of the C position in relation to other positions. Then handling every pitch is a poor argument because yes, there are tons of people that can catch the ball.

You can see Adley and other catchers looking into the dugout for calls.  I’m not saying it happens for every pitch but it does often happen.  Regardless, with the stats, analytics, etc…it’s easier to call a game and know the weaknesses of hitters vs years ago.  This is my point.  The C position USED to be way more difficult than it is now. The long term data reflects that but the game has changed so much.  The value isn’t what it used to be.

And yes, balls in play and all of that also makes some of those positions less important right now too.  Everything has been knocked down.  Everything is easier, to some extent, now.  It’s all relative.  
 

10+ years ago, you would have laughed at the notion that the starting pitcher only needs to give you 5 innings.  Now it’s the norm.  We would have scoffed at the idea of a bullpen game.  Now it happens weekly around the league.   Everything changes and everything evolves.  
 

In the context of this argument, I’m looking at wear and tear, longevity, etc…I’m taking the SS over that.  If you want the C, by all means take it.  For me, I’m guessing the 10+ year starter at SS is the better player. 
 

If you are asking me about the next 3-5 years only, sure I’m taking Adley.  

[LTO's]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Catching a pitch is pretty easy about 80% of the time (wild-assed estimate).

Sure but if we're designating ~20% of pitches in a given game to be difficult to handle (blocking, framing etc.) that's still vastly more important than what a SS or CF is tasked with in an average game. As I mentioned to SG, the defensive opportunities for these positions continue to pretty rapidly decline. Also, heavy shifting in both the IF and OF has made the average defensive opportunity much easier. Until the shift is banned, the strike zone is automated and strikeouts/homers decrease, I think this is pretty settled. Now, if those things were to happen, it dramatically shifts the calculus and I'd say your "premium" positions (CF,SS,3B) would be more important than catcher. 

[turtlebowl]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did you have an issue with Eddie Murray?

Players always talked about what a good guy and leader Eddie was.  Personally I don't know how you can be a great leader if you don't lead by example.  From my perspective on Eddie though much of the issues was driven by the press because he didn't like talking to them.  His effort on occasion seemed less than 100% but that was a different era and you rarely saw anyone not busting it down the line.  

It would be an interesting exercise but I bet if you watched old games of Murray playing and compared them to Machado now  it would probably look like Eddie was playing with his hair on fire, lol.  

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In the context of this argument, I’m looking at wear and tear, longevity, etc…I’m taking the SS over that.  If you want the C, by all means take it.  For me, I’m guessing the 10+ year starter at SS is the better player. 
 

If you are asking me about the next 3-5 years, sure I’m taking Adley.  

I don't follow this line of reasoning though. You're admitting that catcher is tougher/more demanding position than SS. I agree with you that over a 10 year stretch, your SS would be a potentially safer bet to provide more value (though that's not guaranteed). However, if before every season I'm presented with either an elite defensive C with a great bat and an elite defensive SS with a great bat for just that season, I'm taking the C every single time. 

[Sports Guy]

Was just reading an article on 538 talking about how the defensive values of C have actually increased in the last decade mainly because of pitch framing stats.  
 

However, they also said that the position is changing aNd the best and worst framers aren’t as far apart as they were a decade ago and that the more this value shrinks, the more they will have to find another advantage with the position. 
 

And this is, of course, all about how much value you place in the pitch framing stats.  They are better than they used to be but I think it’s still a noisy stat that has holes in it.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

I don't follow this line of reasoning though. You're admitting that catcher is tougher/more demanding position than SS. I agree with you that over a 10 year stretch, your SS would be a potentially safer bet to provide more value (though that's not guaranteed). However, if before every season I'm presented with either an elite defensive C with a great bat and an elite defensive SS with a great bat for just that season, I'm taking the C every single time. 

I agree with your last part. But that’s not the question.

This goes back to the discussion..if you could draft one of these guys, who would it be?  Do you take the older college C or the younger HS SS.  Both are elite.  Both are MVp level players at their peak.

Which do you prefer?  As I said, when I draft someone first, my assumption is that I am getting them for 8-10 ML seasons.  That’s never a guarantee but again, when you are drafting first, you are drafting the face of your franchise and the expectation should be that you are signing that player early on and building around them for a decade.

In that context, I’m taking the younger player that doesn’t play a position as harmful as C.

 

[LTO's]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But that’s not the question.

This goes back to the discussion..if you could draft one of these guys, who would it be?  Do you take the older college C or the younger HS SS.  Both are elite.  Both are MVp level players at their peak.

Well, to be fair, this is not the question I was weighing in on either. The discussion I joined was about what was the more important defensive position. Whether or not a SS or C is more valuable over a 10 year stretch is it's own debate. I would probably lean more on your side there in a general sense. Although, Adley was a unique case and I would've drafted him over Witt too. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Well, to be fair, this is not the question I was weighing in on either. The discussion I joined was about what was the more important defensive position. Whether or not a SS or C is more valuable over a 10 year stretch is it's own debate. I would probably lean more on your side there in a general sense. Although, Adley was a unique case and I would've drafted him over Witt too. 

Fair enough.

My issue with the C defense is really about framing stats.  If you completely buy into them, you can say it’s the most valuable position.  If you don’t, it changes the equation.

 

[LA2]

1 hour ago, turtlebowl said:

Well if we actually wanted to give him a pass because that is what we thought he was thinking then I suppose we could.  That is a reach though considering all the other athletes competing seemed to be okay with at least giving it much more effort than Manny.  If a professional athlete can't run a straight line for 90 feet at 80% effort because they are worried about pulling a hammy then maybe they shouldn't be playing a sport.  Truthfully we have all seen that this is what you get out of him 162, not just in exhibition games.

I used to try to defend the guy but I have just come to the conclusion that I just don't like what he stands for.  I always believed that if we did sign him he would of ended up being hated by the fan base considering the money he would of been paid and the effort he would of put out.  Most Baltimore fans are blue collar so his act would of quickly worn thin, especially if he was here and the team was losing.  

I've been wondering about this for many years now. Is there demographic data on the fan bases of MLB teams?

[DrungoHazewood]

21 minutes ago, LA2 said:

I've been wondering about this for many years now. Is there demographic data on the fan bases of MLB teams?

I'm sure the teams have that information, but I don't know of publicly available sources. Not that I've looked.

I think that the average fan of any team that spends money on tickets, merchandise and similar is going to be better-off than average.  If you're making $60k a year you're probably not spending $3000 each on four season tickets.  But the demographics would skew differently on a general survey that just asked if you're a fan.

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, turtlebowl said:

Players always talked about what a good guy and leader Eddie was.  Personally I don't know how you can be a great leader if you don't lead by example.  From my perspective on Eddie though much of the issues was driven by the press because he didn't like talking to them.  His effort on occasion seemed less than 100% but that was a different era and you rarely saw anyone not busting it down the line.  

It would be an interesting exercise but I bet if you watched old games of Murray playing and compared them to Machado now  it would probably look like Eddie was playing with his hair on fire, lol.  

Eddie tended to have a clean uniform at the end of the game.

I'm not disagreeing with the idea that you shouldn't dive and risk injury for a ball you (95%) aren't going to get to anyway.

Just to me that's functionally identical to a runner not running out a routine groundball, especially one that has had three serious knee injuries.

[Gentile4]

There's a lot to process in this thread. Is it reasonable to let Adley run the pitching staff, produce good offensive numbers, hopefully lead the team into the playoffs multiple times during the next six years, and then let him walk in free agency? How many catchers are truly productive after the age of 30? Is it financially sound to resign him in FA? Now, if they can cut a deal now for a reasonable dollar amount, that's one thing, but I don't see that happening. Is he a generational talent? Maybe, but it's obviously too early to tell. That said, I like the AR pick over Witt. Time will tell.