Jorge Lopez traded to Twins for pitching prospects (edit)

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

People do forget the human side of the sport. He was an unexpected success story for us and a hero basically. In Minnesota he was a hired gun AS that was expected to produce like an AS. 
 

If the twins non tender Lopez then I think we’d 100% bring him back. He could link back up with Holt and be our 7th/8th inning guy we so desperately need. 

A hero?

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A hero?

He went to war! He got the Congressional Medal of Honor! He saved the lives of every man on that transport. Oh, wait.  That was Harry Bailey.

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

People do forget the human side of the sport. He was an unexpected success story for us and a hero basically. In Minnesota he was a hired gun AS that was expected to produce like an AS. 
 

If the twins non tender Lopez then I think we’d 100% bring him back. He could link back up with Holt and be our 7th/8th inning guy we so desperately need. 

I understand what you're saying about the human side of the sport.  I wrote last year about how Jorge Lopez has been through a lot.  And he has, he absolutely has.  I don't think anyone here is doubting his character or the notion that he's a good person.

But I think you're letting feelings and emotions get in the way here.  It seems pretty obvious to all that he was on an extended hot-streak.  Whatever it was couldn't last an entire season. 

If he's brought back, it should be an ST non-roster invite.  Nothing should be guaranteed because he had a good half of a season here.  The idea that he's some sort of Baltimore folk-hero is a bit over the top. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I understand what you're saying about the human side of the sport.  I wrote last year about how Jorge Lopez has been through a lot.  And he has, he absolutely has.  I don't think anyone here is doubting his character or the notion that he's a good person.

But I think you're letting feelings and emotions get in the way here.  It seems pretty obvious to all that he was on an extended hot-streak.  Whatever it was couldn't last an entire season. 

If he's brought back, it should be an ST non-roster invite.  Nothing should be guaranteed because he had a good half of a season here.  The idea that he's some sort of Baltimore folk-hero is a bit over the top. 

At the end of the day he still throws 99mph sinkers. You can win with that and especially get outs. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

At the end of the day he still throws 99mph sinkers. You can win with that and especially get outs. 

So why isn't he?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

At the end of the day he still throws 99mph sinkers. You can win with that and especially get outs. 

At the end of the day he hasn't had any ML success outside the first half of this season.  He's regressing, 99 mph sinkers and all.  

Like I said, I wouldn't mind if he came to ST as a non-roster invite.  I'm not completely against the idea but it has to be on the right terms.  

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

So why isn't he?

Oh, stop it.  He's getting outs, just giving up more hits and runs between outs, is all.  

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So why isn't he?

No Chris Holt or Adley. We all know relievers are volatility with relievers. He could just have poor chemistry with the C in Minnesota. Gary Sanchez isn’t exactly known for his defense. 

[Frobby]

I think the “regression to the mean” explanation is an oversimplification.  That’s fine when somebody’s xERA is higher than his actual ERA because hard hit balls are getting caught, and later it swings back the other way when some soft liners fall in.   But there’s more going on here:

- 10.1 K/9 for the O’s, 7.1 K/9 for the Twins

- 3.2 BB/9 for the O’s, 6.6 BB for the Twins.

That tells me that, for whatever reason, Lopez hasn’t had the same command of his stuff with the Twins that he did with the O’s.   And that lack of command also is probably a reason why he’s getting hit harder when he does throw pitches over the plate.

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Frobby

[LA2]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the “regression to the mean” explanation is an oversimplification.  That’s fine when somebody’s xERA is higher than his actual ERA because hard hit balls are getting caught, and later it swings back the other way when some soft liners fall in.   But there’s more going on here:

- 10.1 K/9 for the O’s, 7.1 K/9 for the Twins

- 3.2 BB/9 for the O’s, 6.6 BB for the Twins.

That tells me that, for whatever reason, Lopez hasn’t had the same command of his stuff with the Twins that he did with the O’s.   And that lack of command also is probably a reason why he’s getting hit harder when he does throw pitches over the plate.

 

He needs to have a session or two with Coach Holt.

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He went to war! He got the Congressional Medal of Honor! He saved the lives of every man on that transport. Oh, wait.  That was Harry Bailey.

Any "It's a Wonderful Life" reference gets an automatic like from me.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think the “regression to the mean” explanation is an oversimplification.  That’s fine when somebody’s xERA is higher than his actual ERA because hard hit balls are getting caught, and later it swings back the other way when some soft liners fall in.   But there’s more going on here:

- 10.1 K/9 for the O’s, 7.1 K/9 for the Twins

- 3.2 BB/9 for the O’s, 6.6 BB for the Twins.

That tells me that, for whatever reason, Lopez hasn’t had the same command of his stuff with the Twins that he did with the O’s.   And that lack of command also is probably a reason why he’s getting hit harder when he does throw pitches over the plate.

 

Agreed.  I hate the argument he hadn’t done it before.  It’s a different role.  It’s completely different and his failures of the past mean very little.

The reason peripheral stats have a lot of value is because they tell you the bigger picture of the player and help you gauge what they should be long term.  There was nothing in his stats that said this was coming.  Had he gone to Minn and put up a 3ish ERA, that would have been expected.  What he is doing is not. 
 

Something else is wrong.

[Emory Eagle]

He’s got a great arm, so whatever the issue is he’ll find a spot somewhere next year if the Twins let him go.  Someone will have a plan to “fix” whatever is wrong.  

[glenn__davis]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Agreed.  I hate the argument he hadn’t done it before.  It’s a different role.  It’s completely different and his failures of the past mean very little.

The reason peripheral stats have a lot of value is because they tell you the bigger picture of the player and help you gauge what they should be long term.  There was nothing in his stats that said this was coming.  Had he gone to Minn and put up a 3ish ERA, that would have been expected.  What he is doing is not. 
 

Something else is wrong.

I think what's he's done in MIN is in the small enough sample size that it can be attributed to variation.   I never believed he was as good as he was showing here.  I don't believe he's as bad (in the bullpen) as what he's showing now.  On the year he has a WHIP of 1.163 and an FIP of 3.23 for the year.  That seems like what I would have expected for him with his stuff playing up in the bullpen.  We were lucky to be on the "good" side of that.

[Going Underground]

Maybe he changed the music he comes in from the bullpen now? In Baltimore it was " Don't Stop Me Now" by Queen. Maybe in Minneapolis it is "Hit Me With Your Best Shot" by Pat Benatar.