A lot of Elias notes/quotes

[Hallas]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well he’s not a special arm in that you can’t find them.  A pitcher throwing 95 isn’t exactly rare. 

Do you think Bradish is a special arm?  

There are lots of pitchers out there with good upside who throw hard.  Again, not doubting upside..I’m doubting the return being worth it.

But I also said why I comped them while also acknowledging that they aren’t all created equal.  

As a starter? I guess it's not rare, but it's certainly a key to being successful.  Among pitchers who threw more than 80 innings this season (this is all starters but also includes some non-qualified players) 46 out of 116 throw harder than 94 mph average, and 21 of them have at least 2 WAR.  There are 28 pitchers in the same group that throw less than 92, and in that list only 6 have at least 2 WAR.  Low velocity pitchers are getting weeded out pretty hard and they aren't performing nearly as well as high velocity ones.

 

On the topic of Bradish, he has special velocity, but he's never had great control and he's never had great secondaries.  His walk rate in A ball was over 4, while Povich is less than 3.  That's a pretty huge difference in control.  If you're saying that it takes more than velocity to make an arm special, I agree with that.  But Povich at least has 1 other component in that equation going for him: control.

 

I actually agree with you that Povich is not worth it, I'm just discussing the process that you used to get to that conclusion FYI.

Edited August 4, 2022 by Hallas

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

As a starter? I guess it's not rare, but it's certainly a key to being successful.  Among pitchers who threw more than 80 innings this season (this is all starters but also includes some non-qualified players) 46 out of 116 throw harder than 94 mph average, and 21 of them have at least 2 WAR.  There are 28 pitchers in the same group that throw less than 92, and in that list only 6 have at least 2 WAR.  Low velocity pitchers are getting weeded out pretty hard and they aren't performing nearly as well as high velocity ones.

 

On the topic of Bradish, he has special velocity, but he's never had great control and he's never had great secondaries.  His walk rate in A ball was over 4, while Povich is less than 3.  That's a pretty huge difference in control.  If you're saying that it takes more than velocity to make an arm special, I agree with that.  But Povich at least has 1 other component in that equation going for him: control.

 

I actually agree with you that Povich is not worth it, I'm just discussing the process that you used to get to that conclusion FYI.

I know what the process is.  I’m just not bowing down to it.

[Hallas]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I know what the process is.  I’m just not bowing down to it.

wait, I'm talking about YOUR thought process, not anyone else's, lol.