Have We Reached Our High Water Mark?

[e16bball]

33 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

They are struggling to score runs with Mancini gone.

102 games before trading Mancini: 424 runs (4.16 runs per game)

6 games after trading Mancini**: 29 runs (4.83 runs per game)

 

** note: assumes no more runs scored in today’s game

Edited August 7, 2022 by e16bball

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

Agreed.  This team is definitely not better minus Mancini, plus Brett Philips.  They are struggling to score runs with Mancini gone.  They need to axe Odor and Philips as soon as they can.  Mountcastle and Mullins are pretty good but not the same mashers they were last year.  I wouldn't be surprised if the O's try to re-sign Mancini (which maybe they should anyway) or find another first baseman if Mountcastle stays like this the rest of the season.  Hopefully lots of good bats coming up from the minors soon but don't think any of them play at first.

The O’s have scored 7, 8, 6, 1 and 6 in the five games since we traded Mancini. Even if they don’t score again today, I sure wouldn’t call that “struggling to score.”  

[EddeeEddee]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

102 games before trading Mancini: 424 runs (4.16 runs per game)

6 games after trading Mancini**: 29 runs (4.83 runs per game)

 

** note: assumes no more runs scored in today’s game

Yes, I should have said WILL BE struggling to score runs with Mancini gone and a newbie (albeit impressive) up from the minors to replace him.  I assume Brett Philips and Yusniel Diaz will be  short-lived experiments, but I just can't see the O's playing at this high a level with that bottom third of the lineup once they get back to the heavyweight teams.  

[DrungoHazewood]

17 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

Agreed.  This team is definitely not better minus Mancini, plus Brett Philips.  They are struggling to score runs with Mancini gone.  They need to axe Odor and Philips as soon as they can.  Mountcastle and Mullins are pretty good but not the same mashers they were last year.  I wouldn't be surprised if the O's try to re-sign Mancini (which maybe they should anyway) or find another first baseman if Mountcastle stays like this the rest of the season.  Hopefully lots of good bats coming up from the minors soon but don't think any of them play at first.

Runs per game through July 31st, Mancini's last game: 4.17

Runs per game since then: 5.8

Obviously too few games to draw even preliminary conclusions, but they're scoring more runs since the trade than prior.

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

Yes, I should have said WILL BE struggling to score runs with Mancini gone and a newbie (albeit impressive) up from the minors to replace him.  I assume Brett Philips and Yusniel Diaz will be  short-lived experiments, but I just can't see the O's playing at this high a level with that bottom third of the lineup once they get back to the heavyweight teams.  

Mancini had a 114 OPS+ with the Orioles.  Even if his replacements have a 90 that probably won't cost the team 5 runs between now and the end of the season.

[Just Regular]

Not to be too jinxing or Barry Bonds about the run production and all, but Adley Rutschman monthly OPS:

May - 529

June - 775

July - 859

August - 1171

The Hays-Mullins-Santander-Mountcastle-(maybe Urias) Supporting Cast group has long felt flat to me in the aggregate.   Mateo right now could be almost anything, a very nice surprise at the MLB level.

The Orioles are underdogs who should use high variance strategies if they hang in, like rolling the Gunnar-DL-Grayson dice liberally.    Put the wild in wildcard!

Edited August 8, 2022 by Just Regular

[interloper]

Make or break stretch for sure.

[webbrick2010]

Yep, I'd save 5 over .500 will turn out to be the best winning % of 2022

If we aggressively promoted from AAA perhaps we could continue to play over .500, but I don't see that happening, and I don't see us winning more than 5 of the 15 games left with Toronto

[glenn__davis]

Yeah, gun to my head, I'd say we don't see more than 5 over .500 this season.  But I'll be hoping like heck that I'm wrong.  Either way it's been an insanely fun season regardless, particularly with performance from the guys in the minors, and I think the future looks as bright as it has for as long as I've been following this team.

[spiritof66]

The problem with the team's offense isn't the loss of Mancini -- or, at least, that's low on the list. The main problems are Mountcastle's prolonged and deep swoon, Urias's less extreme slump. Hays' injury/unavailability/lack of production, Odor's regular presence in the lineup, giving ABs to Phillips, and the difficulty in pinch hitting for Chirinos when Adley is DHing. That's a lineup with four to five pretty big holes in it right now, just as the level of the competition ramps up. They've been scoring some runs, but against pretty bad pitching staffs (and defenses).

Against better pitching and teams competing for wildcard spots, there's a real need for some offensive reinforcements as well as improvement from the current lineup, especially Mountcastle. I think Elias acknowledged as much when he said he tried to bring in some ML talent at the deadline but didn't find an acceptable deal. (He might have been talking about starting pitching only, but the Phillips deal suggests otherwise.) It's now looking like meaningful help from the system won't happen for a while. I guess Stowers remains a possible exception, especially if Hays can't go full-out or has a setback. 

It will be quite a challenge for the current team to stay in the race without help. My guess is that happens only if the starting pitching performs well, both in innings pitched and in runs allowed, against some pretty good offenses. I'm looking forward to it, and trying to keep my expectations low.

 

[jabba72]

Toronto, NYY and Houston have all been struggling their past 30 games with NYY 12-18, Toronto 16-14.

We may be entering this stretch at the exact right time. Losing Lopez in the bullpen hurts no question. I optimistically think Vavra is going to continue getting on base so he offsets Mancini's bat. 

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

The problem with the team's offense isn't the loss of Mancini -- or, at least, that's low on the list. The main problems are Mountcastle's prolonged and deep swoon, Urias's less extreme slump. Hays' injury/unavailability/lack of production, Odor's regular presence in the lineup, giving ABs to Phillips, and the difficulty in pinch hitting for Chirinos when Adley is DHing. That's a lineup with four to five pretty big holes in it right now, just as the level of the competition ramps up. They've been scoring some runs, but against pretty bad pitching staffs (and defenses).

Against better pitching and teams competing for wildcard spots, there's a real need for some offensive reinforcements as well as improvement from the current lineup, especially Mountcastle. I think Elias acknowledged as much when he said he tried to bring in some ML talent at the deadline but didn't find an acceptable deal. (He might have been talking about starting pitching only, but the Phillips deal suggests otherwise.) It's now looking like meaningful help from the system won't happen for a while. I guess Stowers remains a possible exception, especially if Hays can't go full-out or has a setback. 

It will be quite a challenge for the current team to stay in the race without help. My guess is that happens only if the starting pitching performs well, both in innings pitched and in runs allowed, against some pretty good offenses. I'm looking forward to it, and trying to keep my expectations low.

 

Or all or some combination of Hays, Mountcastle, Mullins, and Urias get hot.  As bad as Mountcastle has looked and Hays too, I'm expecting good finishes from both because..... baseball is a funny game.

[oldfan]

Power is what this team lacks right now, no one is a threat to the opposition . Everyone talks about the wall in left, but right field didn't change, have to take advantage of the home park. The lineup is and has been short on left hand bats forever. Pretty sure that's why Elias inpart drafted  Rutschman, Henderson, Stowers, Kjerstad, Cowser, Holliday and Beavers, be nice to watch some flyballs be lobbed up on the flag court for a crucial three run shot.

[crowmst3k!]

Even if this is the high water mark, I could not be more proud of this team. The future is pretty damn bright. Hopefully this offseason involves going after a big name veteran starting pitcher to anchor things. 

[spiritof66]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Not to be too jinxing or Barry Bonds about the run production and all, but Adley Rutschman monthly OPS:

May - 529

June - 775

July - 859

August - 1171

The Hays-Mullins-Santander-Mountcastle-(maybe Urias) Supporting Cast group has long felt flat to me in the aggregate.   Mateo right now could be almost anything, a very nice surprise at the MLB level.

The Orioles are underdogs who should use high variance strategies if they hang in, like rolling the Gunnar-DL-Grayson dice liberally.    Put the wild in wildcard!

Elias's position seems to be "Put the 2023 in wildcard." And maybe that's the right thing to do. To me, the issue boils down to this.

Let's say you have a plan for building/creating/improving something, and that it will take  while to see that plan through. You believe, with good reason, that your plan is sound.

But something surprising happens that creates an unexpected opportunity for success; that opportunity will be enhanced if you deviate from your plan. Should you be firm about sticking with your original plan despite the opportunity that's now presented? Or should you be a little bit flexible and modify your plan in light of the unexpected change in the immediate circumstances?

Sometimes the right answer is pretty clear, but here it's not. So far, Elias has stuck with his plan of planning and building for the future, which apparently will begin either in September or next year (unless you want to count acquiring Phillips, and I don't). I think he should have been more flexible in the interest of the 2022 team (retaining Lopez and promotions beyond Vavra). That's just what I think, after decades of frustrated fandom in which so many stupid, irrational, and destructive decisions were made, and after almost forty years without a World Series appearance. I can't say I'm "right" or that Elias is "wrong." I just know what I would do.