83-79

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Statcast says Mountcastle was neutral luck away from a .800 OPS season this year.

I don’t think you can look at Statcast quite that way.   If I’m not mistaken, Statcast looks at launch angle and exit velocity and calculates the odds that it would be a hit based on those two data points.   It doesn’t consider what direction the ball is hit on the 90 degree playing field, and it doesn’t consider the dimensions of the ballpark.  So, if you play in Baltimore and hit the ball to LF all the time, you can have the same EV and launch angle numbers as a guy who plays in Yankee Stadium and sprays the ball around, and you’re numbers will look very different.   That’s not luck.  

So, the way I see it, if a player’s actual numbers are below his “expected” numbers, that’s a sign that there may have been some bad luck involved, but it’s not necessarily a 1:1 correspondence with bad luck as opposed to other factors.  
 

[Frobby]

I’ll be honest - I’m very happy with the 83-79 record overall, but the fact that the O’s finished 12-18 over the final 30 games, and lost so many games to the Blue Jays when it counted, kind of leaves a sour taste in my mouth.  It was a feel-good season but there’s no doubt there’s more work to do for this team to be a true contender.   

[Natty]

We had a great season when one considers we had the lowest payroll. 

Did we lead the league in most games won based on least money spent stat? 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think you can look at Statcast quite that way.   If I’m not mistaken, Statcast looks at launch angle and exit velocity and calculates the odds that it would be a hit based on those two data points.   It doesn’t consider what direction the ball is hit on the 90 degree playing field, and it doesn’t consider the dimensions of the ballpark.  So, if you play in Baltimore and hit the ball to LF all the time, you can have the same EV and launch angle numbers as a guy who plays in Yankee Stadium and sprays the ball around, and you’re numbers will look very different.   That’s not luck.  

So, the way I see it, if a player’s actual numbers are below his “expected” numbers, that’s a sign that there may have been some bad luck involved, but it’s not necessarily a 1:1 correspondence with bad luck as opposed to other factors.  
 

I agree that 'expected' stats are not a 1-for-1 thing.  However, they are indicators of what could be.  Harder hits/line drives tend to find holes because they don't give fielders a chance to get to the spot.  My thought was that he's more than his .728 OPS, but less than .871 xSLG+xwOBA.  

My .800 OPS is a swag/meeting in the middle.  It doesn't put a 1:1 positive correlation at all.

[AlbNYfan]

This season was certainly enjoyable compared to recent years. It was the first time in years where I got my money's worth on MLB Extra Innings....FWIW, I did not think the O's would be last in the AL East and I thought the Blue Jays would win the East.

That said, looking at 2023:

1) Was 2022 an aberration or reality?? I think Hyde will be on the hot seat if things go South.

2) How will the change in schedules affect the O's? It is assumed that 24?? less games in the East will ad some W's. I'm not sure..they will have to play Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Braves. More travel adjustments, seeing more pitchers for the first time. I know it's the same for all teams, but some may adjust better. The good news for me is that I get 6 or 7 less YES network games when watching the O's (18-19 games was brutal).

3) The shift rules..will the O's benefit or be hurt by it?

4) Limited pick off moves? How will the O's pitchers adapt to it..more step off rubber, improved TTP.

5) Increase in base size...if I understand it correctly, the "square" will increase by 3 inches...which means the distance between bases decreases by 6 inches...more steals?? Speed more important?  A good defensive catcher more important than offense?

6) Roster moves. You all have your ideas on needs, some I totally oppose. But obviously some have to be made. No change for the sake of change. Spend some smart $$$. I like hitting, hitting them where they ain't, I like defense and speed. I like pitchers that throw strikes and change speeds.

Spring training is going to not be getting in game shape but adapting to the changed game. Those that evolve will win, those that don't are screwed.

 

 

[Uli2001]

7 minutes ago, AlbNYfan said:

This season was certainly enjoyable compared to recent years. It was the first time in years where I got my money's worth on MLB Extra Innings....FWIW, I did not think the O's would be last in the AL East and I thought the Blue Jays would win the East.

That said, looking at 2023:

1) Was 2022 an aberration or reality?? I think Hyde will be on the hot seat if things go South.

2) How will the change in schedules affect the O's? It is assumed that 24?? less games in the East will ad some W's. I'm not sure..they will have to play Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Braves. More travel adjustments, seeing more pitchers for the first time. I know it's the same for all teams, but some may adjust better. The good news for me is that I get 6 or 7 less YES network games when watching the O's (18-19 games was brutal).

3) The shift rules..will the O's benefit or be hurt by it?

4) Limited pick off moves? How will the O's pitchers adapt to it..more step off rubber, improved TTP.

5) Increase in base size...if I understand it correctly, the "square" will increase by 3 inches...which means the distance between bases decreases by 6 inches...more steals?? Speed more important?  A good defensive catcher more important than offense?

6) Roster moves. You all have your ideas on needs, some I totally oppose. But obviously some have to be made. No change for the sake of change. Spend some smart $$$. I like hitting, hitting them where they ain't, I like defense and speed. I like pitchers that throw strikes and change speeds.

Spring training is going to not be getting in game shape but adapting to the changed game. Those that evolve will win, those that don't are screwed.

 

 

It's a good point. The new schedule and new rules sort of reset things. It will be hard to predict performance from 2022 to 2023, even for the top teams.