Who are your picks for a 2023 breakout?

[Jammer7]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t believe they would have made the trade if they weren’t going to protect him.  

I agree, and those were my thoughts until a few days ago after reflection on the timeline. You are probably correct. Losing him in R5 would create a meltdown here for sure. 

[Aristotelian]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He is ranked high (don’t think he will be third) but he was a little disappointing this year.

Can take a huge leap in 2023.

I hope so, I'm just going by Frobby's criteria (jumping by five spots). That's going to be tough for Mayo no matter great he does.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I hope so, I'm just going by Frobby's criteria (jumping by five spots). That's going to be tough for Mayo no matter great he does.

He’d basically have to have a Gunnar-like season for anything he does to be considered a breakout, considering that he’s already very highly regarded.  

[Ridgway22]

10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I'll go with Ignacio Feliz. Has some control issues but 13 K/9 is impressive.

Shades of Felix B?

[OriolesMagic83]

My picks are Jud Fabian and Kjerstad.  I think by the end of the year both could be in AAA,  which would be amazing since they both had abbreviated 2022 campaigns.

I think Handley could surprise people and be the O's backup catcher by the All Star break.

 

[btdart20]

Looking at Tony's current list, it's very likely we'll have 6 of them drop off the prospect list by mid-year/year-end (Gunnar, Grayson, Cowser, Hall, Stowers, Westburg).

I have big hopes for Povich, but it would take a herculean effort to jump the remaining guys ahead of him (Holliday, Mayo, Norby, Ortiz).  But I do think he'll make a big push into the national top 75 by year-end.  Would that count as a breakout?  I think so.

A couple of others I like as breakout candidates are Dylan Beavers and Carter Young.

Denoyer had a really good 2022 but also had some low Babip help too.  Same with Armbruester.  If they can repeat while stabilizing the Babip, then I can see them moving into the top 15.  I'm not really sure what they want to do with Denoyer as he'll be 25 with limited GS.  But the K/BB, K-BB%, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, FIP all are really positive.  He was analytics find a few years ago, and Matt Blood sings his praise.  

A minor league pitcher enjoying a big year and other minors notes - Blog (masnsports.com)

“He’s just making good strides this year toward developing his entire arsenal,” Orioles director of player development Matt Blood said of Denoyer, 24. “He’s been refining some of the shapes of his pitches and he’s been locating them. He has done great work with our pitching staffs in Aberdeen and Bowie. He’s been a real nice development success story so far.”

Denoyer sits in the 91-to-94 mph range with his fastball and he has worked hard on the pitch shapes with his secondaries to be as effective as possible, and he keeps getting more consistent in that regard.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Looking at Tony's current list, it's very likely we'll have 6 of them drop off the prospect list by mid-year/year-end (Gunnar, Grayson, Cowser, Hall, Stowers, Westburg).

I have big hopes for Povich, but it would take a herculean effort to jump the remaining guys ahead of him (Holliday, Mayo, Norby, Ortiz).  But I do think he'll make a big push into the national top 75 by year-end.  Would that count as a breakout?  I think so.

A couple of others I like as breakout candidates are Dylan Beavers and Carter Young.

Denoyer had a really good 2022 but also had some low Babip help too.  Same with Armbruester.  If they can repeat while stabilizing the Babip, then I can see them moving into the top 15.  I'm not really sure what they want to do with Denoyer as he'll be 25 with limited GS.  But the K/BB, K-BB%, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, FIP all are really positive.  He was analytics find a few years ago, and Matt Blood sings his praise.  

A minor league pitcher enjoying a big year and other minors notes - Blog (masnsports.com)

“He’s just making good strides this year toward developing his entire arsenal,” Orioles director of player development Matt Blood said of Denoyer, 24. “He’s been refining some of the shapes of his pitches and he’s been locating them. He has done great work with our pitching staffs in Aberdeen and Bowie. He’s been a real nice development success story so far.”

Denoyer sits in the 91-to-94 mph range with his fastball and he has worked hard on the pitch shapes with his secondaries to be as effective as possible, and he keeps getting more consistent in that regard.

Even for Matt Blood that's a very vague commentary on Denoyer.   He doesn't mention if he thinks he can stick as a starter.  My feeling is that Denoyer, Armbruester, and Watson keep getting starts but all are basically future bullpen options.   Hopefully, Denoyer's 91-94 as a starter is 95-97 as a reliever with good command and a plus breaking pitch.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Even for Matt Blood that's a very vague commentary on Denoyer.   He doesn't mention if he thinks he can stick as a starter.  My feeling is that Denoyer, Armbruester, and Watson keep getting starts but all are basically future bullpen options.   Hopefully, Denoyer's 91-94 as a starter is 95-97 as a reliever with good command and a plus breaking pitch.

Agreed.  Denoyer only got a few starts toward the end of the season.  And early on he was only going 3ish IP in relief too.  If 1) Denoyer is a starter and 2) he continues to produce with a normalized Babip he'll start getting chatter.

The piece of that quote that really drew my eye was the focus on pitch shape.  To me, that speaks to pitching vs. throwing.  

[RZNJ]

On 10/22/2022 at 11:01 AM, RZNJ said:

I'm going with Anderson Delosantos.  3B  on the FCL Orioles.   He put up good numbers at 17 in the DSL.   His numbers last year in the FCL were not great but he had 23 walks against 23 strikeouts and showed decent pop.   His defensive numbers look pretty good at 3B.   I suspect he's going to be the starting 3B at Delmarva next year.   Possible breakout although he was talked about after his 17 year old season in the DSL.

For pitcher I'm taking a complete shot on Isaac Solano who is listed at 6'6 195 and put up a 6.90 ERA in the FCL.  He turns 21 tomorrow.   He had one outing where he went 3 IP, 0 hits, 0 walks, and 6 strikeouts.   I have no idea what kind of stuff he has.

I would like to change my pitcher to someone a bit more realistic.   Moises Chace.  Chace will not turn 20 until next June.  He started this year as a 18 year old in Delmarva.   He was a mixed bag but he started 14 games and struck out 64 in 59 innings.   He throws 93-94 and has pretty good mechanics.   He's pretty solidly built so any strength gains will likely just come from getting older and perhaps in peak shape or fine tuning his mechanics.    I think he may have flirted with the top 30 power rankings this year but he's a pitcher who could make a jump into that #20 territory or better next year.

Edited October 24, 2022 by RZNJ